We’ll Have Herd Immunity by April | Hacker News Reader

We’ll Have Herd Immunity by April

wsj.com

37 pointsRyanShook26 comments

This horse will be flogged for as long as possible. People get to work from home, the media is making money, unemployment benefits, new stimulus, politicians get to look like heros, and more. Everyone kinda has an agenda. They go to restaraunts and take off their mask to eat and simultaneously chastise the anti maskers.

We're going to pay for it in the long run but it's great for now.

It's going to break. Either the dollar will go or the market will crash.

The obvious conclusion is that the lockdown failed. At the beginning of the pandemic, epidemiologists that had studied the 1918 flu said we should focus on protecting the vulnerable and let the disease progress normally otherwise (because racing it with a vaccine was futile).

I wonder if the politicians and scientists that inflicted lockdown on us will have the guts to admit their mistake.

There will be more pandemics in the future. We should never have a lockdown like this again.

Ok, but when can I go back to my favorite packed bar, get sh*t faced and sing G-L-O-R-I-A at the top of my lungs... maskless?

Whenever your government gives you your rights back.

What's that Gloria thing?

We will never know.

An old song https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gloria_(Them_song)

I prefer the U2 Gloria off their underrated sophomore album personally

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VlWiQ69DGE0

The math is wrong. If we can't identify most of the people that have immunity by infection, then we have to assume they will also be vaccinated and so we can't just add the two numbers.

We can estimate the number of people that have immunity by infection by looking at how the R value changes, accounting for other variables.

This is epidemiology 101 stuff.

If you have not read the books by Dr Makary, I highly recommend you do.

They are full of actionable wisdom that the avg person can use.

We're almost at 100 days since it was last legal for me to interact with another person in my own home - https://esotericnonsense.com for references.

The UK will have vaccinated at least 20 million of the most vulnerable on March 1, providing a high level of protection three weeks later.

From then, the virus becomes simply less relevant than our collective mental health.

Mourning together is better than just being in solitary confinement forever; it's a 100% chance of a mental illness vs. a ~1-5% chance of a physical illness.

March 23, one year since the beginning of restrictions in the UK, I'm done.

Social distancing indefinitely (until Autumn? 2022? 2023? ...) is something other people can do.

>it's a 100% chance of a mental illness

...wut? That's ridiculous lol.

Man what makes you think we'll be social distancing for another two and a half years?

And what is this 100% mental illness vs. 5% physical illness coming from? Do you really believe those numbers?

Yes, indefinite restrictions will mean that eventually everyone develops severe mental issues.

Change the 5% to whatever you like, it doesn't matter.

Citation needed

I can deal just fine with the current mainland Europe restrictions. I can see my girlfriend, I can meet friends in video chats (and I do, multiple times per week). I definitely would prefer to end this distancing as soon as possible but I currently feel I could technically continue this indefinitely with very few ill effects.

That's lovely for you. I hope you enjoy your video chats.

I only commented in reaction to your wild claim of 100% mental problems.

If you're happy existing with one other person and video calls indefinitely, then I consider you to be an obvious troll.

Nah.

You are not everyone. I know people that are thriving under lockdown. I myself am at least doing better than before. I don't understand how you can think your experience is UNIVERSAL. common, sure. but universal?

Everything you can do now could have been done in Feb 2020.

I'm happy for you and hope that when the world returns to normality, you are able to apply the lessons you have learned.

Really? I could have WFH when no one allowed it?

Indiana study, excluding elderly in nursing homes says death rate following infection is 0.26%.

https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7505013/

Assume that COVID deaths are accurately reported. Assume 500K dead in the USA already. Then 500K / 0.26% = 192 million already infected and mostly recovered.

With 328 million Americans, 192M / 328M = 58% infected already which is well on the way to herd immunity at suppose 75%.

Its not just the USA, reported cases are dropping in a similar way elsewhere in the Northern Hemisphere.

Yay, get vaccinated and be ready to crush this virus again next flu season.

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