>That projection was made without including President Biden's proposed $1.9 trillion stimulus package
this is, as the kids say, an oof.
the more interesting question those graphs present to me is what happened in 2016-2018? why did debt skyrocket but debt% of gdp go down?
As 16-18, if debt increases and debt % of GDP decreases, the only thing that could cause that is GDP increasing more than debt.
Yes. I didnt mean to imply the article was wrong for omitting. however, USD being the global reserve makes it a little more relevant than other countries.
> As 16-18, if debt increases and debt % of GDP decreases, the only thing that could cause that is GDP increasing more than debt.
i wonder how much of this is obama policies and how much is trump policies. also im not sure debt is a fine-grained enough metric to be meaningful. some debt can drive the economy forward and some is rent-seeking wealth destruction.
GDP increase at a greater proportional rate than debt increase.
Because world GDP grew faster than world debt. The debt growth is also smaller than it appears from the graph (the y axis starts at 200trillion rather than zero)
1.9T on top of 281T is barely a drop in the bucket. So now instead of 356% it's at 358.5% . Barely an oof.
The Trump economy.
I doubt it's deregulation especially in the short-term. It takes a herculean amount of deregulation to move gdp, and most of the impact would happen over the long term. Like they say it takes a lot of Harbinger's triangles to fill an Okun gap.
Honestly I think the Trump economy is mostly due to Trump yelling at the Fed to keep their foot on the gas. We had un/underemployment and he pushed them to lean a little harder on the accelerator.
How much real predictive signal is there in economists' consensus?