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Comment by zamadatix | Hacker News Reader

$499 to get the equipment and $99/m for service.

Right now service is locked to the cell you purchase in. The intent is to allow mobility eventually.

It feels weird that I pay some small SaaS products more than this. You'd think slinging a few hundred satellites into space would be a more difficult / expensive endeavor.

SpaceX is way in the red on this right now. But I'm sure they've done the math on how much profit they can extract from the constellation in the long term.

Yep - Profit and loss are pretty much meaningless while investors are still willingly to fling cash at them faster then they can spend it.

It is. The antennas are heavily subsidized to get that $500 price point.

We don't actually know that. There was one unknown source who once said it was some number X but the reliability of that claim is highly questionable.

We do know that. We know how much phased array costs, and many experts in that area have said so. Shotwell and musk both have said getting the terminal cost down is their biggest challenge. They wouldn't say that if it was $500.

Correction: We know how much phased array antennas produced by other companies have historically sold for. They’re not commodities with uniform costs.

No, they are commodity and we know how much they cost. SpaceX hasn't magically solved somehow decreasing the price of components they don't even make. They are paying over $1000 for a terminal.

Cool, can you link me to the BOM cost analysis you’re referring to?

Sure! You mean every phased array that's ever been built? I suppose you have the BOM for the starlink terminal that spacex themselves have said is too expensive? I guess the fact that musk is behind it means the cost is magic and you can discount all prior technology, right?

The burden of proof is the on the one making absolute claims like yours.

Nope. The burden of proof is on those suggesting history is wrong. Phased array doesn't just drop 3x in price overnight. I'm waiting...

"DaveMosher reports @SpaceX has contracted @ST_World already "a few years ago" to build 1m #Starlink user terminals at $2400/pc, hence current hardware subsidy for beta testers is $1900. Article suggests, SpaceX may be paying $2.4 billion for the order. https://t.co/jak0hKQBGn"

So the current estimate published in business insider means you are about four times off based on the contract with ST, who we now know builds the chips inside of it. Please show your sources of a $500 phased array terminal.

So we have $2.4 billion, but we don't know what this includes. This is likely for all the development, setting up the production system and so on. It could include a number of things.

To just take that number an convert it unit cost like that doesn't make sense. SpaceX will need many more then just 1M terminals, what matters is the marginal cost per terminal.

And if these numbers are accurate is also questionable.

Keep in mind the $99 is the price for the beta. I’m not sure if they’ve confirmed the non-beta price.

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