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Comment by akmarinov | Hacker News Reader

So does it make sense to put in some money that I’m okay with losing now or have I missed it?

There is the hyperbitcoinization scenario. If this holds you'll be an early adopter.

That scenario makes no sense in the real world because the US government would just regulate/ban it before it got to that point. Once BTC even starts to threaten the sovereignty and power of the USD, it's game over for Bitcoin and the laissez-faire environment that helped it grow.

At that time it will be impossible to ban because a large percentage of the US population will be exposed to it. If in spite of that they do decide to ban it there is not much they can do except ban the exchanges. The Bitcoin network is impossible to ban without heavily censoring the internet. Also what the US is going to do about the other countries of the world, invade them in order to ban the BTC?

Banning the exchanges is about all it would take. Besides, the current chorus is that large companies moving a share of their cash holdings into Bitcoin will drive the price way up. If the government bans Bitcoin then that's not going to happen.

Most probably a US ban will crash the price, but it will recover in time. Also it will establish a black market in the US which is the worst possible scenario for the authorities as they would have absolutely no control over it.

There already is a black market in for Bitcoin in the United States, that's basically all Bitcoin is used for these days aside from speculation. The fact that it would become a black market for Bitcoin itself doesn't change much. Almost all Bitcoin purchases these days are done through exchanges and held on exchanges, managing Bitcoin wallets is enough of a technical challenge that it will never be in any way widespread without the support of exchanges.

The fact that it can't be banned is one of the main selling points.

No, they'd have to accept that world is different now, and start amassing bitcoin.

I believe it's still selling a major discount from it's true value, so you definitely didn't miss out. It makes sense to put a small % of your portfolio in as part of risky bets you should consider taking.

Put in some money you'd use for Netflix, Amazon prime and a few other extras you can happily do without.

Mark the amount you paid and its BTC value on the calendar and completely forget about it for one year until some out of the loop person (i.e. uncle at Thanksgiving) asks you if it's a good time to put some money into it.

Put Netflix money in per month. Dollar cost averaging.

(Not a financial planner, funny invest anything you're not willing to lose, do your own research, etc.)

You probably missed it, since the hype around it has been going on for a while now.

If the cycle continues like it has a few times now, there will be a big crash / correction, things will be very quiet around BTC / Crypto again for a few years, and then the next surge will happen.

Not financial advice, but if you have BTC, sell now - or sell half, whatever. At least make sure you have your investment back. If you don't have BTC, don't expect to earn 10x your investment. I'd wait for things to settle again, buy, and hold for a few years. Then if things go crazy again, sell off a part.

And of course, don't be hard on yourself if the price keeps going up; you cannot know if it will. Take what you can. Greed is what makes people lose all their money.

I've read this exact same advice now easily 5 times in the last ten years.

Draw what conclusions you want, just an observation.

Depending on when you heard the advice it may well have been correct each time you saw it.

It also points at how useless the advice is.

I remember hearing this same advice when it peaked at $1,200 many years back. The honest answer is, nobody has a clue where this thing is headed.

It's never too late, because it's an deflationary asset. You are early if you invest now. The top of the current cycle is predicted to be about $250k. However, the long term value is much higher.

I am not an investor myself but in the long run you would probably still win. In the short run people expect it to pull back a bit from the current (~$50K) value.

Yes. Do it. We're still far from the more or less stable price. You'd still be an early adopter.

But personally I'm waiting for the next 30-40% dip.

I absolutely believe that I have missed the boat. Still, I put some gamblin' money into GBTC in the last month.

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