California Exit Interview: Fleeing $17 salads and 'general lawlessness'
sfchronicle.com
sfchronicle.com
"We need more police. There’s a general lawlessness that’s just scary." is the kind of "hot take" I go to Facebook to read. I understand and sympathize that he personally experienced a crime, but it is wrong to extrapolate that into some wider trend without more data (and the proposed solution ("more police") even more so).
What I am saying is: This article isn't very insightful/doesn't add much to any conversation. No doubt people will use it as a springboard into unrelated conversations they want to have though.
It is absurd. Its so absurd that I have a hard time believing it.
Statistics in this article suggest the SF law enforcement budget is close to 10% of the city's general fund, about 700 $/citizen. Its neighbors spend a much, much larger share of their muni budget on policing.
https://www.sfgate.com/news/editorspicks/slideshow/Defund-th...
Policing efforts scale with the size of the populace. As a fraction of the city budget, it has decreased from 13% to 10% between 2010 and 2019. If anything, that is the absurdity.
https://www.sfchronicle.com/crime/article/After-years-of-spe...
SF has a unified city/county government so the sheriff shows up in their budgets, as well as the courts and the rest of it. The whole category had a 2019-2020 budget of 1.72 billion. The SFPD alone was 692 million, so I don't know where the Chronicle came up with 606.
The number of households in San Francisco, according to the census, was 346k.
606 was the portion taken from the general fund. 606/0.88 gets 688 megabucks. The remaining difference could just be precision on the 88% figure.
The reasons in the article were largely the same as ours for deciding hell no and staying in London. Apart from stepping over human excrement in the street and the pervasive stench of piss everywhere and seeing the police point guns at homeless people on the streets for basically zero-provocation, the real decision-maker was my wife telling me one day when I got back from the office how she was verbally abused and then had a glass bottle thrown at her by the homeless people near the apartment we were renting in what felt like should have been a nice and safe central neighborhood near Market Street and Union Square.
That has never happened to us anywhere in Europe (or elsewhere in the US for that matter), unless you go out of your way to find an off-the-beaten-path sketchy neighborhood, not the common central places where tourists go and stay.
We had a really nice vacation though! :)
Pulling a gun is one thing, actually threatening to use it is another. It’s a difference in how police are in the US vs UK.
That said, I keep considering moving to Europe myself. I pay crazy taxes for shit in the streets, half assed mass transit, high college tuition, etc.
Well the most salient difference is that UK police don't carry guns at all.
https://i.dailymail.co.uk/i/pix/2015/04/26/11/22FFD9CC000005... https://qph.fs.quoracdn.net/main-qimg-0fe4637f8d1b1f981c7786...
You'll see them at busy places like stations, shopping centres, airports, busy public squares etc. At least in London - perhaps not so much elsewhere. I guess half of it is deterrent & reassurance, and the other half if to stop any "active shooter" type things before they happen.
There is also SO15 which are the sort of para-military dedicated anti-terror type people who don't patrol but are stationed around the place and use motorbikes to cut through traffic and down pedestrian areas, e.g.:
https://i.dailymail.co.uk/i/pix/2017/09/28/10/44C62468000005...
I think the main difference in the UK is, when the situation deteriorates enough to require police with guns turn up, the guns aren't there for show to try and subdue/persuade you. They'll usually shoot to kill from what I've seen/read/heard.
I can remember going on holiday to France as a kid and being unable to take my eyes off the guns I saw on the hips of French police, because it was such an unusual sight for someone born and raised in middle England.
I think in the UK we're so used to the idea of unarmed police that we forget how astonishingly unusual it is. In most countries the idea of unarmed police is unimaginable. We've really achieved something special by managing it, at least in most parts of the country most of the time.
Nobody is forcing this guy to buy a $17 salad either.
I care. Sometimes I consider moving to other places, and these personal experiences of people living in different places are much more helpful than very limited experiences of people never been outside of NY. Even if it is only one data point and the experience is very subjective: I'll read more, someone else will write how happy they are in NY, and I'll decide which opinion is more important to me.
> Nobody is forcing this guy to buy a $17 salad either.
People expect to eat in good cafes, buy quality foods and generally expect standard of life higher than in some third-world countries.
Of course it is possible to eat cheaper, but people want to enjoy their lives, while focusing on their work, not on food budgeting. In particular, just walk in a good looking cafe or a restaurant close to the home without reading their menu prices first.
If that's true, and SF prices are moderate, that's good. But that's very different from the original statement "Nobody is forcing this guy to buy a $17 salad either."
> If you’re worried about prices, take the two minutes to check a menu online first.
The point is that some people want to enjoy life, not worry about prices.
Median salad price makes a city cheap or expensive.
I suspect SF is more expensive than average by this metric, but I'm not sure, I didn't dine in SF much.
There are still places in Manhattan, Chicago, Atlanta, etc where you can do it, SF is no different.
Now, if you want to judge a city only on it's higher priced places or whatever, that's on you. Food culture is a whole other thing, and how people want to play into it is their choice. That said, if you're trying to find steak dinners for 30 dollars(all in: tax, tip, and drink) in a major US city, I don't know how to help you.
TL;dr- "17 dollar salads" aren't a problem unless you're trying to write a disparaging blog about a city you moved away from.
The question is what's the median price of a salad. If median is 17, it is relatively expensive, even if it is possible to compile a list of cheaper cafes and restaurants.
Or put it another way: if you have to check for restaurant prices, that city is too expensive for you, even cheaper places exist.
> if you want to judge a city only on it's higher priced places or whatever, that's on you
I'm not saying is bad. If you want to live on Manhattan, prepare to spend a lot on everything, from rent to salad.
I think the author is saying: SF is expensive, and they cannot afford it. And that's good reason to leave. And that's good reason for other people to avoid moving to SF.
> TL;dr- "17 dollar salads" aren't a problem unless you're trying to write a disparaging blog about a city you moved away from.
Well, if for 17 dollars salad you could buy low crime and low poverty, that would be OK. But these things combined are enough reasons to write a blog.
Anyway, not going to defend SF or criticise SF, just triggered by arrogant statement "Nobody is forcing this guy to buy a $17 salad", which is not far from "if you don't have bread, eat cake".
P.S. I left NYC because I was assaulted in the subway (2018). Also, same year, there was a nodded-off man in nice clothes who probably took a bit too much after work, passed out on 14th St & 3rd Ave. I watched as over a hundred people walked past and sometimes over him. Finally I tried to wake him and, when he didn’t rouse, called an ambulance. Never seen such a cold populace.
And you’d be dead wrong.
https://www.baruch.cuny.edu/nycdata/public_safety/crime-sele...
I don’t know how you could even think that.
https://www.nytimes.com/2017/12/27/nyregion/new-york-city-cr...
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Callahan_v._Carey?wprov=sfti1
> I watched as over a hundred people walked past and sometimes over him.
Have you ever walked through a mid-market BART station?
The people in the mid-Market BART stations have the support of other homeless in the community. The most disheveled are generally end-stage drug users. Their methadone clinic (if that's their poison) and many support shelters are within two blocks. If they're passed out and nodded off there it's because they chose to be incapacitated in a (very relatively) safe spot, where they're not exposed to the elements and relatively out of the way of the walking path. They probably know the other homeless, and people in a bad way will be checked on. Missionaries and street outreach folks will sometimes come by with food or clean blankets. Of course, they'll also have to deal with robbers and random assaults. Life on the street is tough.
This guy was obviously not an end-stage drug user. He was dressed nicely, in a crisp white shirt and clean black pants. He was sprawled against a news stand on the corner, his legs squarely in the sidewalk, which as you know is not so wide in midtown Manhattan at 6:15pm. And he was utterly ignored.
I know the numbers, and I too used to argue them, but the apathy and coldness in "safe" New York was undeniable.
SV is just this generations Gold Rush and Hollywood Star chasing excuse for moving to California.
I have been in the Bay Area for 35 years and have worked in San Francisco for the past 9 years.
"General Lawlessness" is an accurate if somewhat imprecise term for what San Francisco has become in my experience.
OTOH we have too many people anyway, so if they want to leave because of "$17 salads", that's fine. Maybe we can eventually drive places again, without traffic jams. A man can dream.
Strong disagree with this one. It is part of the urban conurbation. Sure, it might be "different" from the rest but yes, it is part of the Bay Area. Even San Rafael and Richmond are SFBA technically if you look in the map.
It is probably not accurate to extrapolate the author's experience in SF to what life is like in all of the other parts of the Bay, much less CA as a whole.
I left anyway after 3+ decades but not because of SF. I just wanted more for less. SF is and always has been a special pocket of gross. Some people love it and others, like me, avoided it at all costs. We're not all the same.
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_U.S._metropolitan_ar...
I own a 5-bedroom home on 1/2 acre - my mortgage is ~$570 before escrow, and ~$900 total.
A more likely culprit is the number of people walking around SF who pull down $350k+/yr, since they are willing and able to buy $17 salads, as well as overpriced real estate. It all comes down to the amount of money in flux in that location.
Restaurants (unless you are some michelin star joint) also don't really have the freedom to charge "whatever the customer is willing". Between rent, wages, and local competition, you can pretty much guarantee that there will be an average 10% profit margin in whatever area you are at.
IMO, the biggest culprit here is the astronomical rent prices charged to these places sucking out all of the extra capital gained by these 17$ salads
However the cost of living does bring along a feeling that if life is this expensive why doesn't it feel or appear better.
Literally everything you buy in SF costs more because the workers either have to afford a place in the city or have to make some crazy commute.
Anecdotal obviously, but the whole place seemed less orderly than you’d expect given the booming economy there.
I get that personal connections can be a thing (my sister hated Paris because some creep spit on her after she didn't want to flirt with him) but you realize that statistically that data doesn't support your statement right?
I mean if someone said "would you rather move to a city with a 1% violent crime rate where you know someone who's part of that 1% or a different city with a 7% violent crime rate but nobody you know has been affected", you can do whatever you want but I'll take the first option.
(inb4 "different neighborhoods", "crime rates aren't the same across all demographics", etc)
No, I mean "less orderly." The "mugger" was more of a drunk opportunist than a serious criminal. This sort of low-level disorder seemed quite tolerated in Seattle, even compared to Baltimore. Of course, part of the reason for the move was going somewhere safer than downtown Baltimore. But fun fact, Seattle's property crime rate, at 46 per 1,000, is higher than Baltimore's, at 43 per 1,000. The property crime rate in New York City is a third as high, at 16 per 100,000.
But lots of homelessness and open-air drug-dealing (and so on) can make a pretty big impact on what walking down the street on a Tuesday feels like. (I'm not making an argument that one is more desirable than the other. I'm just noting that I think I understand the distinction.)
Ocean access, proximity to Asia
Beaches, large parks, mountains (natural spaces)
World class universities
Telecom infrastructure (?)
And what are some things California has that can be duplicated elsewhere?
Innovation-fostering legal system (e.g. IP and non-compete)
Mature, developed capital ecosystem
Vibrant and youth-oriented culture(?)
Much has been made of the VC ecosystem stickiness, but wealthy people tend to be pretty mobile. Especially when there are tax incentives. And eventually, companies follow VC. And talent follows companies.
IMHO, people think about the nature of capital ecosystems incompletely.
Why haven't other places duplicated SF / LA's ecosystems?
Not because they couldn't, but because they couldn't be better enough to justify the move.
However, "better" and "enough" are relative terms. If SF & LA are executing well, that's an insurmountable barrier due to network effects. But if SF & LA decrease their competitiveness, the relative difference also decreases.
And at some threshold, it does become possible for other cities to capture that business, network effects be damned.
In most years, the Valley barely sees any disruption from forest fires (although people who live on the periphery will disagree with me here).
Last year's fires have definitely cast a shadow over what the future holds, particularly for folks who have chosen to live in the Santa Cruz Mountains. The biggest disadvantage for SC people was a mildly inconvenient and somewhat dangerous drive down Highway 17 for access to SV proper, versus the advantage of beach access and housing that was a shade more reasonable in its cost. That equation has now changed, perhaps irrevocably, because of the fires of last year.
And, as climate change continues to get worse, they'll eventually be seen as unremarkable.
But on the other hand, it does have proximity to DC...
Virginia certainly doesn't have that.
What's VA's stance on enforcing non-compete agreements? This seemingly innocuous thing really accounts for a lot of the Bay Area's success. Innovative, fabulously successful companies have been repeatedly founded and nurtured here because of the cross-pollination of ideas and competition engendered by CA's refusal to honor non-competes.
VA has a couple things going for it, as far as I can tell:
- Plentiful network connectivity and data centers (many east-coast data centers are sited in a couple spots in VA).
- A large government sector, including many agencies that are tasked with technical work for the federal government, and the educated workforce that goes with it. Perhaps it's a double-edged sword: the region is a bit too dependent on Government largesse. What is interesting is that most no-one talks about how the Federal Government has played an outsize role in nurturing nascent technology innovations and companies (via government contracts and outright funding via In-Q-Tel and such) in the Bay Area. It goes very much against the current ethos of employee activism against DoD projects. In this respect, the Bay Area and VA share a similarity.
The main advantage of California, from a tech perspective, is its large and mature ecosystem, which isn't intrinsic. San Diego does have uniquely perfect weather but that does not extend to the rest of the State and no one goes to San Diego for tech.
California’s weather is famously pretty good depending on location and preferences. More interesting to me is actually “how many sunny days are there”. Wikipedia has a list of cities by sunlight hours across a range of months [1]. San Francisco is quite sunny, and gets about 3000 hours per year. By contrast, Seattle is 2169 and has a pretty brutal cloudy period, if you care about this.
Total sunlight hours aren’t themselves what matters, because I’m not saying Tucson is a strict improvement. There’s some sort of threshold though for which each person says “this place is depressing” (see also Seasonal Affective Disorder [2]).
There are places that are pretty similar though: Barcelona, Lisbon, Rome, and probably others. They’ve historically faltered on a lot of “could be duplicated” items on your list. My bet is on Barcelona, as the most likely to break out.
[1] https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_cities_by_sunshine_d...
[2] https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Seasonal_affective_disorder
Aside: One thing that I've often wondered about is how Detroit pulled it all off. MI wasn't the friendliest state in terms of unions or weather back in the day. I've heard that the Miracle Mile was a big generator of Detroit's success as a lab of automotive fail-fast, but I've not thought that as the whole picture. Any good resources?
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-01-21/silicon-v...
I never understood why anyone would want to live in unsustainable SF, no matter how "good" or "cool" it is or was, when the vast majority of people don't make anywhere near enough (>50% income to housing) to build a long-term future there.
Edit: For those who aren’t familiar - check who SF’s DA is, google SF’s school board, daytime population decline, etc.
What did happen to SF? You're assuming everyone reading knows, then point to random posts and ask us to check who is filling them like that's meant to clarify something? The SF School Board's president seems to be Gabriela López[0], I read her profile, and I am no closer to understanding your point.
I'm not playing dumb, I really don't understand what you're trying to say at all.
[0] https://www.sfusd.edu/about/board-of-education/board-preside...
About School Board: https://www.sfchronicle.com/bayarea/heatherknight/article/Sa...
You linked the entire DA's bio (the good & bad), and a news story about a specific meeting that was dysfunctional. Going from that to SF being a "sad story of bad governance" is a bit of an unexplored jump.
I invite a post actually explaining what you're trying to say.
I don't consider it conclusive, so I did not post it initially.
As far as I can tell, core software and hardware development salaries are showing no sign of slowing down in their growth.