Clubhouse’s Inevitability
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My perception is that Clubhouse is that it's yet-another amplifier for the group of folks who already have a large following and are able to produce quality content. Listening to anything long-form and live risks being a huge waste of time. Audiences are willing to listen to well-known people because it has a higher chance of being interesting at all.
Unfortunately, the feedback I've heard is that the meetings hosted by the rest of the not-so well-known community have been generally terrible. I think people underestimate power of async communication and how it powers discoverability. There's too much noise out there already and very little time to filter it out to discover new content. Especially when the content is only produced live. Growing a YouTube/Podcast audience and growing a Clubhouse audience are going to be very different challenges.
I'm also unconvinced that this is a winner-take-all space. My understanding is that the technology moat here is very narrow compared to what it takes to run YouTube, Twitch, etc. I've already seen several interesting hacks put together by individuals with their own twist to this space.
That said, I'd really like to see the community stop claiming that "Clubhouse will be bigger than X platform!" such as Twitter and LinkedIn.
So while looking at it from a large numbers angle, yes, the power law applies and winners take all, digging into individual level stories, there will be people who will rise up thanks to the new app.
Not sure what that means, but I do still think there are opportunities here.
The most validating thing as an entrepreneur is for there to be competition, because it means someone else recognized that you're right - there's a market and a product that can fit that market, and that money can be made off of it.
Some random tips I've found make Clubhouse more entertaining...
- Follow lots of people - don't be like Twitter, Instagram etc. trying to have more followers than follows. The more people you follow, the more diverse your room suggestions become
- From the home screen of the app, scroll down and find the little "Explore" button ... this will take you to more rooms. Smaller rooms tend to be lower down
- If you want to get involved in a discussion, go to the smaller rooms
- Can be interesting to tap on the profile of who "Nominated" someone... and keep tapping until you get to the center of the graph. This is an interesting take on social graphs I think (which I'm guessing they will disable)
- Most of all, get out of your comfort zone, when it comes to your normal interests / ethnicity etc. It's very low friction to talk to anyone and people are largely polite. It's a great to get to know groups of people you'd otherwise avoid and get new perspectives.
If you want to connect hit me up on @harryfcks in the app.
When a chief concern about Clubhouse is lack of diversity, I think this is pretty meaningful. What I'm more interested in seeing though, is if Clubhouse can also incorporate class diversity without betraying its brand of exclusivity.
Note: I'm not on Clubhouse and don't want to be.
To me it's interesting because it seems to reflect how innovation in things like music tends to migrate from ethnic African groups to the white middle class.
Unless chatroulette became something different than the video window 1:1 with random people and usually phallic symbols... did I miss something?
Very very different from chatroulette, in my opinion.
Wow, this was fascinating. There was a weird dichotomy on mine. If I clicked on my straight, white, male friends, in almost every case the chain ended in just one or two clicks with an OG user.
If I clicked on anyone else (minority, women, etc), it was a long chain of people that usually involved a long string of black men and women.
My own chain was an exception, having been invited by a minority woman and going through that long chain of black men and women. Even though I'm friends with a bunch of those straight white guys with short chains. But I never asked for an invite when they were all advertising invites on Facebook. I only joined when my friend insisted and sent me an invite.
I don't know what any of that actually means, I just found it really interesting.
I think you may be looking for something that isn't there.
Still not sure how this is relevant.
Say we agree that in the short run, the "phenomenon" of clubhouse makes the artificial construction of "who's in the room" material and detrimental. Then the question to you is: who is harmed and to what extent?
This is perhaps a bit philosophical.
Maybe it’s just my local graph, but it turned me off somewhat
Even at infrequent, it notified me every 30 mins in the last 18 hours... while I was sleeping too. Just wild.
The first time I saw this kind of thing was on lobste.rs, where they call it the “user tree”: https://lobste.rs/u
On both Clubhouse and lobste.rs, surfacing the invite tree makes users more mindful of who they invite. To an extent, they’re vouching for that person, and can be held responsible if that person misbehaves.
Does anyone know what social network first exposed invite trees? I assume it can’t have originated recently with lobste.rs.
I enjoy podcasts and audiobooks, too. I listen to technical and political podcasts regularly, and sometimes I try other genres when I don't feel like learning or getting disappointed by politics.
I heard people talking about Clubhouse, they were all like "wow, amazing, revolutionary". They told me I would need to watch my screen time, because they are 10 hours a day on Clubhouse. I asked them to explain to me why they enjoy it, I didn't get it but wanted to try anyway.
I got an invite, and tried the app. What a disappointment that was, I tried to follow interesting people and content, checked out what my friends were following, listened in on multiple rooms, stayed long and hoped something worthwhile would happen, but no, nothing really happened.
Boring content, from people who are mostly neither funny, nor insightful (which is fine, most people are not extraordinary, it's not a personal attack or something, it's just that the top "talkers" already rose to the top via TV shows and podcasts).
The constant reminders on LinkedIn about past discussions on the platform that I would be interested in is even more annoying, as I can't just open the talks later.
I'm sure there are good conversations there but the noise to signal (value) ratio at clubhouse is just very very low.
Imagine putting radical liberals and conservatives or loyal Taiwanese and Chinese in the same room AND be able to participate in the discussion.
The value Clubhouse brings is the ability to start a dialogue to understand the other side that we are often blinded from - empathy through conversation from multiple viewpoints.
Civil discussions that were never possible can now be (abuses are quickly reported and kicked out). Of course we will have to see the long term repercussions of this technology that only time can tell.
why is it that clubhouse will do anything differently than what a FB post does? AKA devolve into mindless attacks in the comments sections about the way you look in your profile pic, your race/ethnicity, etc.
is the difference simply..because it's voice? i think it's naive to think this is some new mindblowing tech considering a few points: a. it's invite only b. it's populated by tech oriented people.
the only people that benefit from this are yuppies and already well off people. i want to hear opinions from the lower class too which i can guarantee are 100% not on clubhouse and are instead busy dealing with real life problems instead of talking about them on some VC backed app touted as the greatest revolution by mostly vapid social media sites (read: linkedin, producthunt, etc)
i realize its a pessimistic POV but at this point in my life and all my years in tech..i'm tired of hearing how some random social media app is going to change the world for the better again and again. but also, i would LOVE to be proved wrong one day.
I am not sure if you have seen the difference from communication via text only vs. voice/video. (ex: work or relationships). The later clears so much misunderstandings.
For those who choose not to talk or ask questions, you can just listen in. But instead of a tube of biased information fueled by an AI algorithm (most social media today), you get to have a diverse group of people (up to 5k and expanding) all in one room, each able to participate.
It is a two-way real-time dialogue, like in a conference panel discussion or an university class where the professor is lecturing, but also facilitating discussion among students. ex: https://www.youtube.com/results?search_query=harvard+justice
As for the invite only and tech oriented people, it is done for now to cope with bandwidth due to server limitations and also to have content quality control. It will be open to all eventually, they are still figuring it out. HN is an example of the complexities of moderation to maintain quality.
Of course the human brain is going to be naturally biased and the development of content recommendations will eventually led to the same tribal mentality problem, but this is to be seen on how the creators moderate the platform to avoid the disasters from the past.
Like a debate: From non-serious as "cereal is soup" to "Do degrees/college dictate success?" and "Taiwan is part of China" (these actually happened)... The moderators can control the room but can also be reported by participants if he/she violates the guidelines- not sure how abuse is verified though. There is mutual accountability.
Their solution seems to be these high profile interviews held by investors of the app, almost like HBO would have GoT to get the weekly engagement up.
At least Twitter and Instagram felt fun when they started. Clubhouse just felt boring.
And thus, I really need to be very blunt about this: I hate Clubhouse. It’s full of self-loving people who already have a huge audience somewhere else and now found a new way to recruit even more followers. Sorry for being so negative about something which I believe is actually innovative.
I personally love to read things because I think I can read rather fast and I have friends who hated even text messages, preferring voice notes, because they don't want to read/type so much.
I also agree there's the social dynamics you mention, just think the communication format appeals to some more than others.
It's nothing you couldn't have done with Ventrilo way back in the early 2000s, but I guess CH has a brand and people just browsing. It also seems inevitable though that their kind of content will remain a minority and it comes down to if CH will offer you the discover tools you need to weed through all the crap to find the discussion room on the topic you personally give a shit about.
Also apparently a bunch of top ranked academics got to hear me curse bilingually because my spouse was talking and rolled into the kitchen right as the drain hose came off the garbage disposal and dumped dirty water on my face. Loving the new garbage disposal though.
And only those that have iPhones?
This seems to be a good nutshell of Clubhouse and it's popularity.
I think Netflix and YouTube have proven how hard this is. Watch a couple of the wrong shows and you a doomed forever it seems. It's a bit like Echo Chambers too. [0]
For controversial stuff etc, it's better to watch it in incognito. And really any topic that you're not actually interested in. I watched a few minecraft videos to figure out a redstone thing I was working on, and my recommendations were flooded with garbage minecraft videos.
I have the impression that the algorithm sees that you watched something a little more popular in general and latches into that trying to bring you to a larger more generic cluster. Same thing happens with music, for me.
Or maybe it was an eternal September problem or just the fact that DVDs meant there was more content that could be found, but I've not found anything as good as the old school Netflix community reviews.
Meanwhile amazon is convinced I'm a woman and won't leave me alone about that ... Google is convinced I love a college football team that is in fact a rival because I google something about them once in a blue moon .... Trump was really interested in me filling out a happy birthday card for his wife (nope, that's creepy)... and they stand to make money on that, a still get it wrong.
Now those seem lost... they're often in a limbo where they only exist in DVD form now, but not streaming.
I used to watch quite a few older and newer movies when it was a DVD service. Now, I just get all of their branded content shoved down my throat with little if any options beyond that. Search is inconsistent at best.
I've been thinking about canceling my subscription for a while now as I feel the value of Netflix just isn't there any more.
I used it until a few years ago, it seemed the same as ever back then. Now we just have more options through various services for streaming, vs waiting on DVD.
I never gave it much thought but I assumed that, like the adoption of SSL everywhere for websites, all apps spoke only SSL ... does the app store not enforce this ?
2. iOS only
3. Invite only
4. Not ADA compliant (leaves out deaf folks)
5. Buggy
6. Centralized
7. You can't easily delete your account
I personally tried it and deleted it. No thanks.
That seems to provide an extreme means of selective enforcement.
At the beginning of a session, tell everyone you're recording and give them a link to sign consent form and ask anyone who doesn't to leave the room. By staying, they implicitly agree.
There is also local jurisdiction laws around this too which make it impossible to cover all cases.
I'm not a lawyer of course, but it seems like a valid defense at least.
But it is highly encouraged by the app, for sure.
Of course it is.
It builds their social graph.
Having built a dating site just before Tinder launched, that only used FB for auth, we had hundreds of millions of connections within weeks. It was a trove of data as we could sort matches based on it on the theory that people in your 'friend circle' are more likely to match with.
Probably good that the site didn't last due to founder issues.
But in the article there is literally not a single mention of Discord, why not? Discord has been providing me the exact experience described here. I’ve had really interesting conversations with strangers on Discord, people are much more civil in disagreeing if it’s not text based! And what about twitch, “Just chatting” is definitely a competing product here in the 1 to many category.
Seems like an anti-feature. Why would I want to listen to half-informed takes on current events which will be outdated soon after? Inherently ephemeral stuff like sports commentary I could understand at least, perhaps that's really the only sensible use case.
But I guess that's asking the wrong question anyway - all these platforms are optimized for wasting your time, after all.
At least with Uber and AirBnB you could excuse such tech company label (even though they are mostly legal-oriented companies with a fake tech company air).
You know you are in a bubble when a live audio podcast startup passes for a tech company and has too much hype built around it.
Shows how much of success is connections and marketing.
I quote at length from Raymond Williams's study Television published in 1974 (!)
> The physical fact of instant transmission, as a technical possibility, has been uncritically raised to a social fact, without any pause to notice that virtually all such transmission is at once selected and controlled by existing social authorities [...]
> If the effect of the medium is the same, whoever controls or uses it, and whatever apparent content he may try to insert, then we can forget ordinary political and cultural argument and let the technology run itself. It is hardly surprising that this conclusion has been welcomed by the 'media-men' of the existing institutions [...]
> The model can be related to history only by endless retrospect, in which by selection such a process can be generalised or demonstrated. Characteristically, in such a model, there will be no more history: a culminating age has arrived.
MS Paint diagrams give the gloss of spontaneity; the big goofy arrows tell a version of history reduced to simple cause and effect; the easy steps "Democratization, Aggregation, Transformation" flatten it into a linear treadmill.
Clubhouse becomes an overdetermined effect rather than something deliberately built -- it's another stop on the three-step treadmill that's coming whether you like it or not (so get your investment dollars in now). Under this ideology, technology is something that happens to us. But as Nowaldo says, it is "trying to market itself into existence" [1] and appeals to inevitability are exactly how they do it.
It feels like the reason I no longer listen to live radio. Why would I let someone else dictate what I listen to when there's plenty of on-demand content available 24/7?
What I really don't understand is people trying to build a connection to podcasts? Why? Just because it's audio too? The reason I enjoy podcasts is that I get to enjoy specific topics (or field specific news) from a list of sources I curate myself. I have show notes, know roughly what I get into with an episode, and get to pause and rewind, and that is just a part of it.
The comparison to podcasts is to be "the thing that you listen to while doing something else".
They're too lacking in self awareness for that, moreover, this is not remotely a threat.
150% my exact experience. I don't get it, so I uninstalled it.
That right there is one reason why I've never even tried it. I refuse to use app-only networks. Give me a web site that I can use from anywhere. Let me control what content my device downloads. There's no fucking way I'm buying into an app-only future.
Agreed.
Same thing happened with Ello ( https://ello.co/ ). Started out as invite only, which appealed to a certain group of people. Then the shine wore off and most users went back to FB and Twitter. Then it rebranded itself as a social media platform for creatives where it seems to have found a solid audience.
The attraction of CH is exactly this: getting to hear things you would ordinarily not be "allowed" to hear. When it first started more of these types of conversations were happening and it did feel like you were part of the "in group" getting to hear things that ordinary people weren't privy to.
Making secrets explicit as a business model is not sustainable though. As more and more people file into the app creators are going be less and less explicit and all that will be left is the banal and boring (which may be enough actually, as the app is still addicting if you're a lurker).
Here's my prediction: CH is here to stay, but it will hit a ceiling. Additionally some people on the app are clearly playing with fire and we will likely see someone important get into trouble on the app and that will be the end of the (already dying) cool factor of the app.
Feels like a side effect from being new and artifically limited via invites and I doubt that aspect will be kept very long. Same with people praising how friendly the discourse is supposed to be.
You start as a child, and go forth and develop your place in the world.
If everyone is the same, no one is unique.
Different desires lead to different contributions which have different levels of value to society which lead to different levels of social status.
I've heard it described as Twitch Chat minus Twitch, just the Chat.
I think the lesson is that the impulse to imitate high-status people is very strong. Even when the behavior has no intrinsic value to the average Joe. If a social network gains a reputation for where SV entrepreneurs or "thought leaders" or Harvard heiresses hang out, then many people will flock to it regardless of what the actual experience is like. When Facebook opened up to a new campus, students would sign up en masse without even realizing what the product was.
[1]: https://twitter.com/default_friend/status/135961816878890598... [2]: https://twitter.com/default_friend/status/135961480306553651... [3]: https://www.eugenewei.com/blog/2019/2/19/status-as-a-service
Quora ended up being like if Yahoo Answers and LinkedIn had a baby. I expect Clubhouse to go in a similar direction.
Taking a page from the LinkedIn playbook
Their target demographic seems more like conferences or university lectures with active participation, where education is the primary goal. I used to think that this might go away after covid, but after examination, the social utility is of tremendous value. I am usually against all social media (deleted most), which I think corrodes society, but clubhouse seems to be onto something.
Some controversial topics that could not have been discussed in person can be started here (and across the globe), expanding understanding on both sides: ex: politics, gender discrimination, Taiwan vs. China, etc.
There are also some funny/serious ones, for example “Attractive women explain things to tech bros” started as a joke but evolved into an advice place.
Yes, with every content platform you will inevitably have the quality issue, but I their content filtering can improve over time
To be fair there's still good radio out there and not even just on the internet. The really commercial stuff on most of the FM band is tedious but personally I really love people who are passionate about music play me things I might not have heard before. Things like BBC Radio Six Music and the former offshore pirate Radio Caroline are both pretty good in this regard.
A good radio DJ can create a far more personal and human experience than just waiting for Spotify's algorithm to give you something vaguely related.
Just like I don't listen to podcasts, I can't imagine sitting around listening to people talk about things with no visuals. I'm not even sure when I would slot that into my day, even if I wanted to.
Personally speaking, I listen while walking, running, or driving.
I am trained in Carnatic classical music and now I want to learn Hindustani style. The members are of different ages and the young people are a delight. They are polite and at different skill levels. So..it has massively revived and boosted and expanded my music universe.
Most South Asians would know what an Antakshari session means...basically this clubhouse room is like that.
Right now, I am in a room where people are part of 2 minute debates. Pro and against debaters randomly assigned. The topic now is: “Do aliens exist?” Fun!
The big rooms can be difficult to navigate and engage if one doesn’t know how to time oneself without interrupting. Because we don’t see each other.
There is tons of security issues. But that’s probably why this is still beta. For now, I listen a lot more than I contribute.
It is a ‘real identity’ service. Your phone number and your real voice is on the server. There is no downvoting(ahem) but there is self moderation. The best part is one can leave if they dislike a discussion and one won’t be heard if they are disruptive if the moderator so decides. No public shaming. Just a lack of platform for unpalatable views(from the room moderators’ POV). I think this might well become the most well behaved social media we have seen in a while on the interwebs.
https://www.bloombergquint.com/amp/gadfly/clubhouse-success-...
If they had no competition that would make sense, but there are quite a few platforms trying to recommend audio content to people as-is.
The current podcasts I listen to I found through YouTube. I assume they had a presence there as that's where their audience looked to find content.
> Clubhouse is an invitation-only audio-chat social networking app launched in 2020 by software developers Alpha Exploration Co. As of December 2020, it was valued at nearly $100 million. On January 21, 2021, the valuation hit one billion US dollars.
$100m to $1b value increase in a month? What happened?
Jokes aside, Ben’s argument here seems solid. It will depend on them solving discovery as well as TikTok did but they could be huge if they manage it.
Open the app first time, you'll be greet by screen that let you choose which topics you're interested and who you want to follow. I just can't bring myself to choose, because I suddenly feel "Is this yet another "productive" things I have to do? Just thinking about it make me tired already.
I have new books I bought lying around that I hardly touch, Pocket article that I rarely read(yet I save it everyday) Tutorial video I plan to watch, etc.
My answer to myself is what I need is "quiet" time, not another channel to bombard the information(no matter how good it is)in your head. The information is overloaded already.
Again, some people seems to like it, good for them then.(Anyway, I like their app icon. :)
The biggest features it's got going for it once it hits GA, are that it's ephemeral and that it's live. There are several other platforms with decent UX already providing these USPs, also for free. I can see this being a live-streaming broadcast service for celebrities and influencers who already have big audiences, but not much more than that.
Waiting on an invite though. I’d love to check it out.
They could adapt in some way.
Twitter seemed useless at first, but once you realize the voice it gives a small class of people - and - that the media would use it incessantly and addictively - then you realize why it sticks.
Snapchat settles into chat.
WhatsApp is into 'I don't have to pay SMS in Brazil etc.
TikTok - is so ridiculously addictive it remains to be seen, but I'm wary that it will actually have staying power.
The private wave has hit so hard with Clubhouse you have to think they are going to push it hard, and with a major media push this will get really big before anything else. Like every pod at CES having a Clubhouse. A Clubhouse with every salesforce account etc.
There's an opportunity for it to become a de-facto live streaming platform for audio.
I love some of the regular shows there like GoodTimes, deep learning research review hosted by Andrej Karpathy etc. When I step into smaller rooms, the signal to noise ratio decreases (on topics I care about).
I felt clubhouse to be more conversational than podcasts (which are often a Q&A format). It also allow new people to participate, ask questions.
Exploration of topics and rooms is pretty hard currently. How do you discover interesting people and conversations? For me it has mostly been twitter, which is non-optimal. My second big pain point has been the FOMO nature of it. I would ideally like to consume content on my time and schedule not the other way around.
The way a conversation turns into a set of people who become the authority on a topic, vs. the followers is just way too easy. It's sort of like Quora back at the beginning.
It also requires a huge time commitment that makes sense in this Covid world that once people want to get out and travel, or just return to normal meetups, the platform will either shift to a lonely class of people, or dry up completely.
Gotten some good shoutouts on this one, so it may help with understanding why it is doing well when other apps seem to be feature superior to it. I've made my own "code of ethics" when it comes to how I embrace this trend at arms length.
Make your bets!
Clubhouse: $100 million to $1 Billion valuation
Agora: $4 Billion to $10 Billion valuation
What does Agora offer that is better than its alternatives?
It's basically Discord/TeamSpeak.
Where you are not invited.
Maybe once it opens up to everyone.
I listened to a podcast recently (Blocked and Reported) where they were critiquing how journalists have been advocating for fact checkers in every single clubhouse room. An app like this isn’t news that needs to be fact checked - it’s a bunch of strangers yammering on and talking out of their ass like you do at a bar. Some people are way too uptight.
Also, just because something is ”brutal honesty” doesn’t mean it isn’t also a rant, nor that it’s the truth.
But I agree too. There's nothing special about Clubhouse expect that it is super-hyped by the VCs, media and the techies as the next big thing and I'm not convinced.