Also, why would Nokia bet on one horse, and not follow HTC's example of supporting both WP7 and Android?I can give you a billion reasons. :-)
Seriously though, while Android is ahead -- even if Nokia doesn't win over a single Android user, there are more ppl getting smartphones for the first time next year than smartphone users in the world today (by estimates). That is the market is growing super fast.
So if WP7 can win just 20% of completely new customers. Customers who don't have Android or iPhone -- they'll be about 10% of the market -- and that assumes they win over no converts. If they can convert just 10% of iPhone/Android users that can get them to 15% market share. That's pretty good.
It's clear Nokia already tried negotiating with Google and Google was arrogant. I don't expect they'll go back to that well any time soon. And remember they're getting special treatment from MS -- and I don't discount the rumors. I think there is a acquisition possibly in the works. My hope though is we don't actually hear about it until mid 2012.