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Any real value analysis of Bitcoin that doesn't take Tether into account isn't worth much. As long as the whole crypto market is built around a currency issued by an unregulated and unaudited company with a mile-long list of past controversies, any unbiased take on the future of Bitcoin has to allow for a significant downside risk.

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Tether is a real Michael Burry moment for me. They claim to have 30 billion in reserves right now and are "printing" a billion tethers at a time. Yet nobody can confirm their reserves and the company itself is absurdly opaque.

Either there is an incredible amount of criminal fraud behind this or... this is perfectly reasonable?

Except nobody can really explain or confirm why.

Yes, but as long as nothing is stopping them from simply minting out of thin air, I wouldn't bet against their ability to keep pushing the prices up.

Daily volumes of tether trades are consistently a high multiple of the total supply. (Today it's 130bln vs 30bln.) So I don't know if it's safe to even trust that number.

As per Steins law, anything that cannot go on forever must eventually stop. Question is how long?

If they want non-idiots to use their stuff, then they need to open up and give a few tours of their "vaults" or whatever.

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