> XMPP, meanwhile, seems to have been shuffling along slowly for 20 years without many users or features that appeal to a mass audience (GIFs, etc)
GTalk was based on XMPP and for many years supported federation with XMPP servers, even for a year or more after Google announced it was going to end federation. (IIRC, it supported XMPP almost until the day they pulled the plug entirely, circa 2016-2017.) Because of its integration with GMail[1] and GMail's prevalence, XMPP (both the protocol and the network) was one of the largest, if not the largest, IM network.
Matrix is a nice protocol but at the end of the day it's biggest differentiator with XMPP is using HTTP and JSON for transport. Theoretically that means it should be easier to implement Matrix clients and servers, but in reality AFAICT the XMPP ecosystem is still richer than Matrix. Worse, Matrix deployment still seems far more centralized than XMPP ever was. I'm curious, by show of hands who in this forum runs or has run for any significant amount of time their own federated Matrix server? XMPP server? I ran my own XMPP server for years until GTalk dropped off.
I would love to see Matrix achieve widespread federated deployment. Personally I think XMPP stands a better chance, if only because it came tantalizingly close to critical momentum, joining the ranks of HTTP and SMTP, before Google killed it[2]. But I really couldn't care much one way or another which protocol wins so long as we see a real, federated solution.
I would try running my own Matrix server but I'm still confused whether I need to register my own user ID or my own server with a central Matrix authority (other than DNS), which seems like it defeats the purpose of traditional federation. Running an XMPP server was easy--once DNS records were properly published people could just contact me at my e-mail address.
[1] You could chat with anyone logged into the GMail web interface.
[2] IIRC, the official reason was because of spam, though Google seemed to have had basically solved that by the time they ended federation. The real reason seems to have been that other IM networks, like MSN, abused XMPP GTalk federation in an anti-competitive manner, so Google decided to take its ball and go home. Also, GTalk apparently worked too well--after GTalk was a series of horrible products and services that ending up destroying Google's position in the IM space.