We can only hope that maybe this year we will have another Elfstedentocht :)
The flip side is that for 10-15 centimeters of ice to happen over a 200km route, the freezing temperatures have to hold for quite a bit more time (a week plus). Current predictions are not inconsistent with that but of course a lot can happen in that time. That being said; it's been quite a while since we've seen these kinds of temperatures hold for this long.
No. It's extremely unlikely the rules WILL change. With curfew extended for another month, there is an as good as zero chance they will drop 1.5m rules (which is what the committee has based their decision on) before March.
For better or for worse, the dutch government has shown pretty big flexibility and a willingness to deviate from stated plans based on new information and public pressure. I would say there's at least a 20% chance the government would change rules to allow this to happen.