Just in relation to the United States, I think we could increase vaccination compliance exponentially if getting vaccinated meant no longer having to wear a mask, social distance etc.
Where is the carrot?
Where is the carrot?
So your odds of a negative effect from COVID without vaccine is between 0.04% and 0.006%, and may be much less.
So reasonably you should take this as worth ... roughly a tenth of a car maintenance, in time and cost.
> your odds of a negative effect from COVID without vaccine is between 0.04% and 0.006%
And with the vaccine, they are 0%. Or sufficiently close enough, that they weren't registered in the large scale studies of various vaccine makers.
> roughly a tenth of a car maintenance, in time and cost
And I get the jab for free with paid leave, so for free in time and cost.
Why? Because the costs for society are evidently high. Most people have friends or relatives, which are in high risk groups (e.g. parents, grand-parents), and they rather do not want to take the risk of being responsible for their premature and rather gruesome death.
No they drop by 60%-80% or so, they don't drop to zero. It depends on the specific vaccin and which "refresh" regimen you choose, and of course on your age (the very young and very old can get as many vaccins as they want, it won't work, and of course immunodeficient patients won't work either)
Or to put it differently: if you have to choose between stopping smoking or getting vaccinated. Stopping smoking is by far the better choice (of course both is still better).
Pfizer/BioNTech: 1 severe case in the vaccinated vs 9 placebo group (https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/33301246/)
Oxford: 10 hospitalisations all in the control group (https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6...)
The issue here is that the need for wearing a mask is not affected by whether you've been vaccinated. The mask is not mainly about protecting you, it's about protecting others from you.
Unless a vaccine also stops transmission entirely (and none of them do though it looks like they will to some extent) you remain a danger to others even if you yourself have been vaccinated.
This in fact is my main issue with people refusing a vaccine. If it was just their own health, and there were no other implications, then fine. It isn't though. If large numbers are unvaccinated, then the vaccinated population still can't return to some semblance of normality without risking killing them.
(BTW I'm not advocating enforced vaccination, I just hate the effect a large unvaccinated population has on the vaccinated population. And for context/clarity/disclosure, I'll be taking it when offered.)
Unfortunately the what you are suggesting just isn't feasible. Mask wearing is also still necessary because we don't know if vaccinated people are still carriers. It is entirely possible the R number of a vaccinated person not wearing as mask is higher than the R number of an unvaccinated person wearing a mask.
Honestly, I think we should just pay people to take it.