A Woman Who Stood Between America and a Generation of ‘Thalidomide Babies’
smithsonianmag.com
smithsonianmag.com
As a biomedical person, i find the FDAs policies and procedures eminently sensible, perhaps especially when they chafe, and this is why.
I do not envy them their jobs even the littlest bit, but I’m glad they’re around.
In some cases it seems like peoples' trust in those regulators may be fueled by nostalgia, but the FDA does seem like one of the few agencies that has retained some measure of independence.
Looking at what has happened in this nation's other industries and institutions, only one crippling decades-long medical crisis doesn't seem all that bad.
So I offered it as an explanation for why the FDA could be well-respected and reasonably functional, while the United States fails to address some acute public health issues.
Things could be much worse; at least they don't turn a blind eye when huge sums of money are not involved. It's still very rare for a drug's approval to be pushed through via fraud, and there are a lot of diseases that need treating. They have a solid track record, even now.
So, naturally, he sat around with nothing to do during recovery but to play video games, drink beer and pop pills.
Pain management is definitely not taken seriously enough by some doctors, and too many people are too trusting that their overworked doctors and nurses know better.
Both myself and my wife also have chronic pain from past injuries (back pain mostly, plus some arthritis for me) but we manage with stretching, liberal amounts of tiger balm, and the occasional ibuprofin.
I have to be honest, I was really hesitant to fill that prescription. I did after a few hours when the pain got unbearable (at 1 in the morning, they filled it in 5 minutes which also makes me worried that pharmacy would be an easy robbery target...), and damn they did work quite well. I only needed them for 2 days, and I didn't get the sense of being high that I expected, and had no issues stopping them. I can't say I didn't wonder what would have happened if I needed them for a week or more, or if I had previously been addicted to opiates.
It just seems hard to believe in modern times there's nothing in between NSAIDs/Tylenol and full on opioids for managing pain, especially for this sort of post-op temporary use case.
I'd much rather have the slight load on the liver that paracetemol has than the issues with the stomach that NSAIDs bring.
The fact is we seem to be damned if we do or damned if we don't. We desperately need a reasonably effective and safe painkiller. If 100,000 actually die from paracetamol per year then there's a reasonable excuse for banning it. But what do we replace it with given that many cannot take NSAIDs for various reasons?
- Pharmacists and doctors repeatedly say paracetamol/acetaminophen is very safe if taken according to directions, the trouble is, that in excess, it shuts the liver down and it cannot recover/clear the drug in time before real trouble sets in. Moreover, it's not very effective as a painkiller.
- NSAIDs, ibuprofen and aspirin, cause bleeding of the stomach and other major issues, even hearing loss in high doses.
- The newer COX-2 selective NSAID Rofecoxib, aka Vioxx, was very effective at certain forms of pain relief but was banned by the FDA after it was found to cause cardiac effects in susceptible people including heard attacks. (Another criticism I have of the FDA is the inordinate length of time it took for the FDA to remove Vioxx from the market after its cardiac effects became known—this was around three years. (I recall reading a paper in the AAAS journal Science that outlined Vioxx's cardiac effects and thinking to myself that the drug would have to be banned. That was some three years before the FDA actually banned it).
- Celecoxib, also a newer COX-2 selective NSAID that is in the same class as Vioxx, hasn’t yet been banned but it still has the potential to cause cardiac effects. Moreover, it is not as effective a painkiller as Vioxx was.
- Then there's the dangerously addictive opioids.
- Once we had another rather effective painkiller but it too has been long banned. APC was a mixture of aspirin, phenacetin and caffeine and it was rather effective except for the fact that it rotted one's kidneys, many instances of kidney disease were attributed to its use
Alas, there's precious little else, especially anything that's safe.
It's a pathetically inadequate a list, isn't it?
I'm not sure why they stopped selling it OTC though.
And even if there is, would we really expect requiring a prescription to fix that problem? That doesn't seemed to have kept opiates from ruining people's lives.
From personal experience, it would seem that permanent damage is the norm more than it is the exception. But at large I don't know.
> That doesn't seemed to have kept opiates from ruining people's lives
NSAIDs are not addictive.
> to what benefit?
Better public health. But I concede that in the US, that's heresy.
A bunch of years ago I broke two ribs, and decided not to go see a doctor, after a doctor friend told me they wouldn't be able to do anything about it, aside from prescribing pain medication and telling me to try not to move much (with the caveat that if at any point I started to have trouble breathing, I must call 911 and get myself to the ER). It wasn't a particularly fun 6-8 weeks of healing, and I took the max recommended dose of OTC ibuprofen many of the days, but I got through it. Would it have been nicer to have zero pain? Sure. But I don't think the addiction risks of something like an opiate would have been worth it, and the healing process serves as a reminder to me to take better care of my body.
(Just to be clear, because I'm sure someone will put words in my mouth otherwise: no, I don't think this "grin and bear it" method works for all situations! When it's possible and reasonable to get by with minimal pain medication, I think people are better off. But I think many people -- aided and abetted by overzealous prescription-writing by some doctors -- go too far in trying to remove all pain, to their detriment.)
Opiods are available at many different magnitudes of strength.
For instance, on a per milligram basis, Oxycodone is about 1.5 times stronger than morphine.
Codeine, which is actually available OTC in some countries (Including Canada, but NOT the US), is about 1/20th as strong.
Now, there also is stuff such as tramadol (WHO ladder step 2). But it also can be abused, and is indeed sold on the streets.
Right, and as you say it'd be a good practice to stop using it, especially if it's OTC, which, as mentioned above, it still is in some countries.
It used to be OTC where I am but it's now only available by script. I recall decades ago taking combination codeine/paracetamol (aka acetaminophen) for headaches and the codeine definitely exacerbated them, moreover it was not very effective as a painkiller.
It turned out that whilst paracetamol wasn't very effective by itself the headaches didn't rebound as they did with the codeine mixture. All up, NSAIDs—aspirin, ibuprofen—were better even though they caused minor stomach upset.
Maybe I'll try again this spring or summer when I get back into doing some light forestry, but I almost prefer to not mask the pain so I know I'm not making things worse.
(Looks like episodes 402 and 403, from a quick search.)
Opiates also do what they're supposed to, but the fact that they're addictive wasn't a mystery. They're safe if taken and prescribed as instructed. The failure is more on the DEA and other enforcement bodies for not dealing with the obvious prescription abuse. The FDA doesn't make controlled substance decisions.
Figuring that out wouldn't necessarily be an up front trial kind of thing though.
It never spoke out either. Like Pontius Pilate, it washed its hands of the matter.
Once something is approved for something (or grandfathered!), it’s a free-for-all for prescribing and usually insurance coverage.
That and opiates do what they say on the tin - it's more of a policy problem than a specific thing you can just FDA-away.
My 2c.
Unlike much medical/drug research, knowledge about opioids and opioid addiction is well known.
The FDA irresponsibly failed to act on a no-brainer.
Also, some of the vaccines they developed for covid didn't work. A year ago people were somewhat dubious about mRNA vaccines because they'd never been tried before. And then previous vaccines attempts have also resulted in vaccines that make the infection worse. Or caused dangerous side effects.
I don't think with vaccines there is this 'one neat trick' that professionals have overlooked somehow.
The FDA is also the reason why epi-pens are so expensive[2], why Martin Shkreli was able to jack up the price of Daraprim[3], why many drugs suffer from shortages[4], and why home testing for covid was delayed for so long[5]. And don't forget that covid community spread was discovered in February of 2020 only because researchers risked jail time by violating the FDA's prohibition on testing.[6]
Yes, the FDA lets leaders avoid an occasional political snafu. But the organization kills far more people than it saves.
1. https://www.washingtonpost.com/archive/politics/1981/11/26/d...
2. https://slatestarcodex.com/2016/08/29/reverse-voxsplaining-d...
3. https://slatestarcodex.com/2015/09/24/the-problems-with-gene...
4. https://slatestarcodex.com/2019/04/30/buspirone-shortage-in-...
5. https://www.nytimes.com/2020/05/15/us/coronavirus-testing-se...
6. https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/10/us/coronavirus-testing-de...
https://blogs.sciencemag.org/pipeline/archives/2015/08/07/on...
Now, when I mentioned that we’d surely have killed off more people by doing drug research by the more direct routes, the reply is that we’ve been killing people off by moving too slowly as well. That’s a valid argument. But under the current system, we choose to have people die passively, through mechanisms of disease that are already operating, while under the full-speed-ahead approaches, we might lower that number by instead killing off some others in a more active manner. It’s typically human of us to choose the former strategy. The big questions are how many people would die in each category as we moved up and down the range between the two extremes, and what level of each casualty count we’d find “acceptable”.
So while it’s not crazy to say that we should be less risk-averse, I think it is silly to say that the FDA is the only (or even main) thing holding us back. I think that this has a tendency to bring on both unnecessary anger directed at the agency, and raise unfulfillable hopes in regards to what the industry can do in the near term. Neither of those seem useful to me.
https://blogs.sciencemag.org/pipeline/archives/2013/08/19/is...
The replies to my comment here nicely delimit the cleft stick the FDA is in. You are on the "oh, god, just let them try it already! the FDA are stick in the mud beancounters just holding everyone back" side.
A few others are on the "But this one time, they didn't pull Vioxx fast enough, and look at what it got us!!" side.
For myself, I'm glad that 1. i don't have to walk that tightrope and 2. there are enough people to make an institution old enough to have memory that _do_ walk that tightrope.
But i'm pretty sure that sanity is somewhere in the middle, case by case, agonizingly slow clinical trial by agonizingly slow clinical trial.
Surely the way around that is to expand temporary/experimental approvals. This would require the patient to be properly and adequately informed of the risks of taking any new drug after which he/she would sign consent which would indemnify pharma, researchers, FDA etc.
That said, any such approach should be very tightly controlled to ensure unethical cowboys in the pharma industry don't take advantage of it.
"You hereby acknowledge that neither the safety nor efficacy of this....procedure/substance has not been established. As a result of taking it, literally anything could happen to you and/or your future unborn children."
It is already really hard to assess costs and benefits of medical treatments; expecting an ordinary person--dealing with a scary diagnosis--to do so with even less information seems ethically...fraught.
That said, as I've addressed the matter of the wonderful Frances Kelsey and her rigorous approach to the approval of thalidomide, I will address issue of experimental treatments more in general as well as emphasizing same issues with respect to COVID-19 and the ongoing shemozzle that surrounds them.
As with the Frances Kelsey/thalidomide matter where the outcome could have been truly disastrous for thousands of unborn kids if Kelsey had not dealt with it as a matter of urgency and that she had done so with rigor and tenacity, a similar situation exists with the various therapies for COVID-19, especially those that are truly experimental and or have not yet demonstrated their medical effectiveness. As you rightly acknowledge when you quote hprotagonist where he says "that neither the safety nor efficacy of this....procedure/substance has not been established. As a result of taking it, literally anything could happen to you and/or your future unborn children."
As with just about any vexing matter, I'd assert that the key issues always involve both its magnitude and our perceived urgency to rectify it, thus it's the product of both that will determine how soon and how proactively we will act. As COVID-19 is an out-of-control pandemic that continues to kill people on mass, we are forced to act urgently in order to stem its spread. This call to urgent action alters everything, as it has now forces us to undertake risks that are not normally associated with responsible prudent behaviour.
As I mentioned in an earlier post on a different issue, 'desperate times call for desperate measures'—and with desperate measures come very considerable risks. Moreover, with COVID-19, when it comes to weighing up options, the luxury of time is not on our side. And as we've seen everywhere, that has had a considerable and often very detrimental bearing on the ways we've responded to the pandemic not to mention the many decisions we've already made in our attempts to combat it.
Such experiences are not new to human beings, as we've faced many similar situations in the past. The problem here however is that we've not learned much from the fact. For instance, we could have drawn valuable knowledge from well-established protocols that have evolved from battlefield triage experience. Here, ambulance personnel, stretcher-bearers and medicos charged with aiding the wounded and dying face terrible extremes that they would never experience in normal life. As an experience, it's as bad as it ever gets, and that's why it's such a worthwhile and relevant example in our ongoing battle with COVID-19. Moreover, tragically, such experience is all too commonplace (thus it's a realistic one): as the history of warfare shows, battlefield triage situations have occurred many hundreds and hundreds—if not thousands—of times in the past, and no doubt, they will continue to occur repeatedly into the future. Not learning from the experience of history is a form collective madness.
There is any number of instances where with enormous courage and often without previous experience, rescuers have had to make decisive life-changing decisions in an instant—an instant that encompasses anything and everything that's truly relevant at this point, from triage decisions and concomitant actions thereof, to considerations of one's own safety and the safety of others around one, to one's own ethical behaviour and related humanitarian considerations. Moreover, rescuers not only have to remain self-composed to adequately manage the enormous stress they are under but also they must remain capable of performing their appalling and arduous task without fail, and for that, they call heavily on their training.
As a medico in a war triage situation, you will be surrounded with dozens of wounded and dying soldiers and you'll only have split seconds to decide between those who may likely live and thus be rescued and those who you will have to leave out on the battlefield to die—and you'll have to do all that almost automatically as you'll have precious little time to think through your actions. Right, you will find yourself in an ethically fraught situation—one that's as ghastly and truly horrible as it's ever possible to be in.
This is where training is crucial—vitally important. You will have been trained to be decisive, objective and as unemotional as it's possible to be in these circumstances in order that you will not only save as many lives as is humanly possible but also later to stop you going mad from PTSD—or at least ameliorating its effect (as you can comfort yourself from knowing that you've performed your duty to the extent of doing everything humanly possible in extremely difficult circumstances).
The logistics of introducing new and untested procures into the treatment of COVID-19 are similar to the triage scenario mentioned above. As a professional involved in the decision-making process, one would have to quickly weigh up the potential benefits that any new procedure would likely bring for the patient against possible unforeseen and potentially life threatening risks—and then be honest and as forthright as is possible with the patient by explaining everything.
One's decisions will involve risks and sometimes they will be wrong and will result in disastrous consequences, at other times one's decisions will be correct but force majeure—an act of God will intervene and things will go horribly wrong. One may even make correct decisions based on the best advice available but ultimately in the light of further experience, this advice may also prove to be wrong.
What one cannot do is to procrastinate or vacillate around making hard decisions, or failing to make them at all, or by watering them down because of nonsensical political reasons. For as we have all too often seen in the recent past, these dubious and hesitant actions have cost many, many lives. As all us know by now, this deadly virus waits for no one.
With COVID-19, we are in new territory. Only later after the results of our present decisions and actions have been properly assessed, and after the statisticians have analyzed the data contained within their integrands, that a new best practice will be established for this current COVID-19 scenario.
In the interim, we have to act as professionally as is possible by not only taking the best advice available but also by making informed decisions based actual evidence gathered from procedures and things that have already been demonstrated to work.
By acting in as truly professional manner as is humanly possible, it is unlikely that your worst dreamt scenario that 'literally anything could happen' will, in fact, actually happen.
The article you reference mentions a major Norwegian study showing that it prevents death had just concluded. So the FDA was acting on fresh data.
In addition, timolol is one of many molecules in the beta-blocker class and propranolol, another beta-blocker, was already approved in the US since 1973. And from a quick cursory google search, it appears there is no difference between the two when it comes to reducing hypertension and future risk of heart attacks.
The WaPo article does talk about a study that had just concluded, but Timolol had been studied for over a decade previously, and had been used in Europe for years. I didn't have to look hard to find a US study done in 1976 that praised Timolol's effectiveness in protecting cardiac muscle after a heart attack.[1]
If you doubt that Timolol is far more effective at preventing heart attacks than propranolol, then why believe the rest of the WaPo article? It references a study that you can't find on the Internet because it was published over 40 years ago.
The bottom line is this: Despite the drug being considered safe by the relevant European authorities, the FDA forbade US doctors from prescribing it. Had the FDA simply allowed doctors to prescribe compounds approved by their European counterparts, they would have avoided tens of thousands of deaths.
1. https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/001429...
If you look at cancer treatments today most uses (not drugs, uses) are not formally approved by the FDA. It all based on research, publications and guidelines.
As I said, in oncology the vast majority of treatments are off-label.
I was unaware that propranolol was approved as late as that in the US. This seems very strange as Sir James Black's work on propranolol was widely known and he was widely respected before he was knighted and awarded the Nobel Prize for his work with both propranolol and cimetidine.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/James_W._Black
Why on earth did the FDA take so long to approve it given that there was no other beta blocker available at the time? (Thus, the hypertension issue could easily have been perceived as a crisis even allowing propranolol to be, say, approved on a temporary basis much earlier on.)
Looking at the FDA's record of approvals, it's hard to see any consistent granularity in its approach. I'm curious as to why this may be the case.
And there is more at stake than most people realize. Approve a vaccine that isn’t safe and people will lose trust in general and will refuse any vaccine. Then what?
Lots of Monday morning armchair drug regulators in this thread.
The Thalidomide crisis cased a few thousand issues.
The risk-benefit analysis clearly favored lifting the ban on COVID vaccines after successful phase 1 trials, in June 2020 or so. They decided they should be banned until further study, during a pandemic.
The FDA was empowered explicitly by congress to take more aggressive action during such a time. They opted instead to ignore that mandate, and instead run things like normal, albeit with taking reasonable time to respond to a crisis. The deaths of 100,000 to 400,000 could be directly blamed on the simple fact that for most of this crisis, we had not 1 but approximately 8 vaccines that were all expected to be safe and work, and all turned out to be safe and to work. Vaccines candidates are not like Thalidomide, period.
It's important for citizens to publically shame the FDA for their actions, and demand change from our elected officials.
- The Sanofi-GSK one produced meh immune responses in the elderly, which is the population most at risk. (https://www.cbc.ca/news/health/sanofi-gsk-vaccine-covid19-tr...)
- Merck/MSD abandoned TWO candidates, V590 and V591. https://www.merck.com/news/merck-discontinues-development-of...
- CSL/Queensland abandoned theirs because it interfered with HIV tests. https://www.csl.com/news/2020/20201211-update-on-the-univers...
Damn shame the FDA was asleep at the wheel during the opioid epidemic! (It's a shame you've not bothered to justify that statement in the light of overwhelming evidence to the contrary.)
The FDA did SFA to stop Purdue Pharma selling—sorry—pushing boxes of OxyContin to all and sundry as if they were kids lollipops despite the fact that it would have been aware of over a hundred or more years of solid medical evidence of the dangers of narcotics and narcotic addiction. The fact that any opioid narcotic that's capable of killing pain is addictive—and if not very carefully managed—very addictive is 101 medical/pharmacy knowledge. Even kids know the fact!
Armed with this knowledge the FDA knew what Purdue was doing was completely unacceptable, so why didn't it act?
https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2019/jan/24/fda-opioids-...
The FDA still has a lot to answer for its negligence over the Purdue/Opioid crisis. Its ethics are nothing like they were in Frances Kelsey's day.
—
Later edit: Let me add Frances Kelsey was a true hero, she saved many kids from developing terrible deformities! Despite current criticism of the FDA by many including myself, we should never forget her contribution to medicine.
> If a doctor subscribes to stereotypes of what an addict looks like — nonwhite, from a low-income community — the physician may assume their white, middle-class patients are immune to addiction, he says.
https://www.wbur.org/hereandnow/2020/01/03/bias-opioid-presc...
The overriding issue is that medicos, pharmacists and opioid drug manufacturers should know the dangers of opioids like the back of their hand. I'd even argue that such knowledge is almost a priori in the sense that the vast majority of medical professionals would have already known the essential details before they'd even entered training from the fact that it's common knowledge that opioids are very addictive and dangerous if not managed with considerable care.
As I see it, just about everyone knows the multiple reasons behind the decades-old war on drugs by just about every government anywhere on the planet. Even if the way this war was and is still being conducted is ineffective and counterproductive (which, incidentally, is my view), one would have had to have been Sleeping Beauty and have slept though the past 100 years not to know that narcotic opioids, heroin, morphine, etc. along with stimulants, cocaine, methamphetamine, etc. are at the center of this war. (When I was a kid, drugs were never an issue as fortunately we kids never came across any—not even pot! That's to say, with respect to knowledge about drugs, we kids were about as naïve as it gets, nevertheless, even as a nine or ten year old, I'd heard of heroin and morphine and was very well aware of their dangers!)
What I am saying is that the relationship between opioids and addiction is so well known—and that these facts are so central to medical and pharmacy training—that it's impossible for professionals not to know about such matters. Thus, the fact that everyone wasn't immediately up in arms and pointing to the problem and demanding that something be done about the problem is very strange indeed. I'd go so far as to say that it's a sociological phenomenon worthy of research. It's not just a matter of penalizing and disciplining the perpetrators but getting to the core of why it actually happened given that basic training, existing laws, dispensing protocols, FDA rules, FDA experience etc. any one of which should have been able to prevent the crisis but didn't.)
(In my opinion, the opioid crisis has a similar ring it to what happened at Boeing with the 737 Max where once the notion critical systems engineering and attention to safety details was paramount and inculcated deep within every level of the organization and its work culture but which in recent times vanished. Clearly, we have to get to the heart of the problem and understand it before we can rectify it.)
The problem is the flip side - when wonder drugs are delayed causing unnecessary pain and suffering - generates no human interest stories. The damage of increasing cost of drugs and delaying the rate of improvement because of delays in the approval process is also an unknown.
The FDA is a process - every time something goes wrong, bureaucrats take heat and then tighten the standards. This process is going to be more conservative about approving drugs than is rational.
There is lots of paperwork required on both sides, but the difference is who accompanies the project. In the EU it's bureaucracts with zero domain knowledge, in the US it's domain experts who asked the right questions and were strict, but also genuinely helpful.
Society, as usual, over-reacted, and created a set of highly restrictive rules that have cost probably millions of lives over the subsequent decades.
A much more sensible law in the aftermath of the drug scandals of the 1930s and 40s, that would have run a much much lower risk of having a myriad negative consequences, would have been a requirement to include on any drug, a disclosure of whether it is approved by the FDA. Non-approved drugs could have been required to include a warning that the FDA recommends a person not take the drug as it has not been verified to be effective or safe.
This provides most of the benefits of the FDA's role as gatekeeper, without most of the harm done by heavily restricting a market and making it totally dependent on a single central authority. Providing consumers with the ability to ignore the warnings of the FDA would have acted as a lifeline/failsafe in cases where the FDA erred.
There was a locally famous dude at the public pool who was kind of the coolest guy around. His legs stopped at knee length and he would pull himself up the high dive ladder, walk on his hands to the end of the diving board, and casually launch himself off the end perfectly every time. It was spectacular.
I was saying to my wife on a recent drive, that there's some civil engineer somewhere who figured out you can embed those little light reflectors into highway lane markets, and some other engineer who figured out those perpendicular cuts in the asphalt that vibrate your car before you run off the road.
Both of these probably naturally arose in the context of their work, and both of these things passively save hundreds of lives daily.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Botts%27_dots (named after Elbert Dysart Botts)
[1] https://99percentinvisible.org/article/decoding-cats-eyes-gl...
If this is true, then the article is incorrect. It appears that Americans were just denied compensation because the drug wasn't approved.
I'm sure the harm would have been much greater had the FDA approved the medication. But it seems unfair to say they were no victims in the USA.
Also worth noting that "Don't get pregnant" also extends to "don't get anyone else pregnant" since the side effects can pass from men to women too.
>At the time of the drug's development, scientists did not believe any drug taken by a pregnant woman could pass across the placental barrier and harm the developing fetus
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Thalidomide
Wtf?
As recently as 1999, it was commonly stated that babies could not feel pain until they were a year old.[0]
[0] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pain_in_babies#%3A%7E%3Atext%3...
At least, in humans (and other primates and rodents, but not most mammals). Human embryos/fetuses receive more nourishment and achieve more growth during prenatal development in part because the placenta invades the uterine wall much more—for lack of a better word—parasitically than in other mammalian species. That's great for a lot of developmental stuff for the fetus, but it does make transfer of (say) drugs considerably easier. (It also is the source of a lot of the common maternal complications in human pregnancy and is the reason one should at least be in contact with medical doctors while pregnant, even if a low-intervention or home birth plan is intended....)
It’s not a vaccine, until it’s proven safe. While FDA isn’t perfect they have stringent procedures to prove something is safe.
The way FAA let Boeing ship planes that killed people, and lost their trust, same applies to FDA. If people die and have irreversible damage, it’s on their hands.
Another cost that's harder to quantify is the cost in lives and misery of drugs never developed because it's for an uncommon and there's no way to make back the money needed to pay for FDA approval.
> Can we afford
Evidently we can afford to spend several trillion dollars and hundreds of thousands of deaths waiting 6 months for the vaccine trials.
The real question is whether we can afford to use our non-emergency drug approval process in a time of crisis. This time the answer is probably "yes, and it probably only cost a few tens of thousands of lives and a few trillion dollars" but if the disease in question had been Ebola instead of COVID I worry that we would have seen the same ineffective response that optimizes for minimizing liability instead of maximizing effectiveness.
the seen and the unseen strikes again
We have already sacrificed trillions of dollars in shutting down or greatly restricting the global economy for a year, so any questions of "can we afford" are totally moot by now
It's worth noting the fastest ever vaccine development before this was 4 years; the early COVID vaccines were developed & authorized in 9 months and a large risk production ramp was started before authorization was granted.
We'd know it was ineffective by 3 months tops. Presumably several vaccines would be in play, and after 3 months switch to the more effective ones.
We'd have had an effective vaccine loong before 9 months.