Scientists fear pandemic's 'hyper hygiene' could have long-term health impacts
ottawacitizen.com
ottawacitizen.com
"The hygiene hypothesis, the COVID pandemic, and consequences for the human microbiome"
> This pandemic intersects with a decades-long decline in microbial diversity and ancestral microbes due to hygiene, antibiotics, and urban living (the hygiene hypothesis). High-risk groups succumbing to COVID-19 include those with preexisting conditions, such as diabetes and obesity, which are also associated with microbiome abnormalities. Current pandemic control measures and practices will have broad, uneven, and potentially long-term effects for the human microbiome across the planet, given the implementation of physical separation, extensive hygiene, travel barriers, and other measures that influence overall microbial loss and inability for reinoculation. Although much remains uncertain or unknown about the virus and its consequences, implementing pandemic control practices could significantly affect the microbiome.
Epstein-Barr is similar, causing mononucleosis in teenagers but only mild symptoms in children.
Allergies, Lupus, and many others are already caused by similar mechanisms, and pushing society into ever more clean states will likely lead to more issues.
The only real cure would then be taking immune-suppresants.
Or we just need to embrace that nasty bacteria are a natural environmental feature important to our homeostasis
> Think of it this way: ...
OP already said it's plausible. Your image doesn't add to the evidence at all.
The truth is, we have no idea about immune and gene regulation. A lot of the simplistic understanding you learn in school is falsely making people believe the body is a "machine" we can control or even comprehend. Medicine doesn't know shit.
All we have, are some correlations with an increase in autoimmune disease, allergies and lymphoma, and increasing hygiene. Could also be microplastics or hormone disruptors, social isolation, stress, overweight, lack of sunlight, climate change... .
The immune system is insanely complex and a huge bag of innovation and legacy making many functions redundant and incredibly hard to decipher.
And some "healthy exposure" to pathogens really is a coin toss, as it may not be the contact, but surviving the sickness you benefit from. So a severe fever may slightly decrease your cancer risk, but comes at the risk of dying from, well, severe fever.
There is also the hypothesis that the plague epidemics caused a shift to autoimmune diseases because it needed humanity to shift to a more trigger-happy immune system.
Another factor could be the much better state of nutrition than in the old times. Malnutrition has massive negative effects on the immune response, and nutrition was pretty shaky for much of human history, so better nutrition could also cause some autoimmune issues.
> that the amount of evidence that does exist
Such as? It would be nice to see some actual evidence and not simply guilt by association.
I am NOT a tin foil hat wearer. I have an autoimmune disease and have researched the topic a lot. I am claiming NO certainty, just that the immune system is woefully insufficiently understood and that links with growing evidence should NOT be ignored.
https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1111/apm.12023
https://oem.bmj.com/content/74/9/684.abstract
https://www.atsjournals.org/doi/full/10.1164/rccm.200612-179...
https://www.embopress.org/doi/full/10.15252/emmm.201707882
https://www.cmaj.ca/content/190/37/E1097?_ga=2.113661191.149...
https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S01712...
https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S01712...
https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/27471720/
or full text here:
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC4918254/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC4918254/pdf/itt... [PDF]
i turned my browser setting to no style for page rendering and i got breadcrumbs
Do you have a link to the data for the claim about it being a serious illness that causes a better immune system? My understanding has been that exposure to a variety of pathogens and minor illnesses would be sufficient.
See https://www.cnn.com/2010/HEALTH/12/06/daycare.kids/index.htm... for a random news article reporting on a similar result only with kids getting sick in daycare. Being exposed to diseases early builds immunity later.
All complex systems, us included, have bathtub curves (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bathtub_curve)
https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jamapediatrics/fullarticle/...
1. 28 year olds, who were exposed to a prior influenza pandemic during an early age window, disproportionately died during the 1918 pandemic. https://www.cambridge.org/core/journals/british-actuarial-jo...
2. Measles destroys prior immune memory. https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-019-03324-7
the 1918 flu, which killed 10-20% of the infected, was worthy of that kind of avoidance response, not this virus that kills much less than 1% (and maims far fewer, contrary to your claim). the tiresome messaging (fear strangers and non-conformists; trust our "science", not theirs) of politicians and sympathetic media played this pandemic for maximum political & economic gain, not minimizing impact. it's disgusting.
All of which is actually incidental to the point I was making, that the hygiene hypothesis is about exposure to dirt and pathogens that prime your immune system for healthy responses. You can have healthy exposure to dirt without exposure to whole classes of viral diseases. No one’s going to say you have to catch Ebola to solve the hygiene hypothesis, for example.
as for your second point, we're exposed to coronaviruses of all sorts already (viruses that have spike proteins)--the relevant class of viral disease here--and that's what's likely to have conferred mild/asymptomatic cases in the majority of the infected.
That's one hypothesis.
Don't particular populations already have a degree of natural herd immunity to viruses which are commonly found in their proximity, compared to populations on the other side of the world who do not?
Like how Europeans brought their diseases, which they had built up immunity against, to the Americas which then decimated the indigenous populations.
Could we hypothesize that many Asians have a stronger natural immunity to covid19?
Regardless, New Zealand is clearly not an Asian country.
New Zealand is obviously a bit of a red herring considering it is an affluent island nation with a low population density.
The top HN comment of any article with more than 10 comments on it will always almost have more content and less fluff than the great barrington declaration.
Just to save everyone time:
>The declaration calls for individuals at significantly lower risk of dying from COVID-19 – as well as those at higher risk who so wish – to be allowed to resume their normal lives, working normally at their usual workplaces rather than from home, socializing in bars and restaurants, and gathering at sporting and cultural events.
>The World Health Organization and numerous academic and public-health bodies have stated that the proposed strategy is dangerous, unethical, and lacks a sound scientific basis.
>It was sponsored by the American Institute for Economic Research, a libertarian think tank that is part of a Koch-funded network of organizations associated with climate change denial
Here is a challenge for you: participate in discussions for a whole week without changing the subject as soon as your claims are called into question. You began with the Great Barrington Declaration; you cannot simply Gish gallop on Hacker News.
Uh-huh. And what percentage of people who contract have "long term health issues"? This is just more scaremongering based on self-reporting and anecdotes.
https://abc17news.com/news/national-world/2021/01/12/three-q...
N = 1,700+
On the other hand, while that risk is not that widespread, that still will mean millions of affected people.
“Around 10% of patients who have tested positive for SARS-CoV-2 virus remain unwell beyond three weeks, and a smaller proportion for months (see box [1]).[7] This is based on the UK COVID Symptom Study, in which people enter their ongoing symptoms on a smartphone app. This percentage is lower than that cited in many published observational studies,[8][9] whose denominator populations were those admitted to hospital or attending specialist clinics. A recent US study found that only 65% of people had returned to their previous level of health 14-21 days after a positive test.[10]”
When I had the flu or pneumonia in the past I could still feel effects over a month later.
But flu should not cause long term effects normally.
> Researchers don’t understand exactly how the disease might trigger Type 1 or Type 2 diabetes, or whether the cases are temporary or permanent. But 14 percent of those with severe covid-19 developed a form of the disorder, one analysis found.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/health/2021/02/01/covid-new-o...
And IIRC, the hygiene hypothesis mostly has to do with autoimmune diseases and our immune systems not learning how to differentiate between serious threats and harmless exposure.
Here’s a Taiwanese children’s show from three years ago encouraging mask wearing: https://youtu.be/qXaD871hXnc?t=18s
It’s certainly possible but to put that in perspective, here’s a study showing 98% of people (self-reporting) were symptom free after 12 weeks.
Is that any worse than other respiratory viruses?
https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.10.19.20214494v...
It may but more likely to make you immune from covid-19 and similar virus.
E.g. China has reopened wet markets even though we now know it is hugely dangerous to the world. Sigh
https://m.dw.com/en/biodiversity-wet-markets-life-animals-co...
Well...I guess their definition of farm animals is considerably broader than ours...:-)
from https://www.vox.com/future-perfect/2020/4/15/21219222/corona...
There will be most likely no changes to how we used to do stuff.
I, for one, wouldn't mind screens in the shops and some protection for the cashiers. Its probably the biggest factor for spreading flu, since they are huge point of contact.
But it won't happen. The moment we beat the covid, everyone will rush to strip and burn anything that is remotely related to covid.
I hope you're right, but I feel like that's overly optimistic.
It seriously feels like people want to this to be the worst thing ever.
Source is this fascinating dataset: http://covid19pulse.usc.edu/
How do you argue with statistics? Its leading cause of death.
[0] https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jama/fullarticle/2774465
Depends on the methodologies used and the conclusions drawn from the numbers.
For example, the parent comment was claiming that the average 35 year old overestimates their chances of dying from covid. Your comment states that covid is the leading cause of death. I believe both statements are true. You can see some of this in a quote from the article you posted.
"In contrast, for individuals younger than age 45 years, other causes of death, such as drug overdoses, suicide, transport accidents, cancer, and homicide exceeded those from COVID-19."
Just to point it out in the age sub groups under 45 in the previously linked article, to become the leading cause of death in each one would require a 2x-15x increase in covid deaths. I'm not sure what that means for this conversation since my main point is that none of the numbers or arguments being thrown around in this comment chain directly relate to each other - there seem to be 2 or 3 separate arguments that are only tangentially related.
Do they? I've looked for information on this, but haven't found it. Do existing vaccines protect against the new variant from the UK?
Covid has been mutating and spreading to other species. It is also believed that immunity is short lived, about 1 year. The virus will be endemic (if not already) in global wildlife and agricultural animal populations indefinitely. This will mean that you can't eradicate it and what yearly vaccinations will be required. This also presents the potential that new mutations will continue to emerge and that one or more will not be protected against by the vaccine.
These concerns don't even address that parts of the population will refuse to get the vaccine. Or that the vaccine does not completely protect against infection/transmission, as seen in it's effectiveness being measured as preventing severe symptoms (which is part of why you still need to wear a mask after vaccination).
https://www.pnas.org/content/118/6/e2010217118
It has a heading "PERSPECTIVE" -- is that like an op-ed for science?
Title: The hygiene hypothesis, the COVID pandemic, and consequences for the human microbiome
It depends on the publication, but may often have much more rigour than the short prose format typical in a traditional newspaper op-ed. For example it could be a multi-author piece with extensive references and figures, and is a 'perspective' in the sense that it presents an academic summary of some topic for non-specialists.
Lockdowns and their consequences have been well-covered, but there also seems to be some effect on people (kids especially) that could be pre-disposed to obsessive-compulsive behaviors, with the constant stress of this looming threat causing children to start obsessively washing their hands and becoming extremely cautious not to get infected.
We will be dealing with the fallback long after life returns to "normal".
I find it odd to see people applying hand sanitizer even though they've just left home and are visiting one place. Then you see people constantly applying hand sanitizer when entering shopping complexes and visiting various stores.
Personally, I try to limit my use of hand sanitizer because I have sensitive skin. Also I'm in Australia where we don't have major outbreaks right now.
abstract: https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/27471720/
or full text here:
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC4918254/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC4918254/pdf/itt... [PDF]
i turned my browser setting to no style for page rendering and i got breadcrumbs