Tesla's dirty little secret: Its net profit doesn't come from selling cars
edition.cnn.com
edition.cnn.com
If I sold a $1 can of coke for $0.70. I can report $0.70 of revenue but i still lost $0.30 on the transaction.
The consensus over there seems to be that they have decent unit economics and the impact of subsidy removal is that they'd probably have to convince the market to accept negative net income, or grow slower.
I̶ ̶d̶o̶n̶'̶t̶ ̶t̶h̶i̶n̶k̶ ̶a̶n̶y̶ ̶s̶e̶n̶s̶i̶b̶l̶e̶ ̶i̶n̶v̶e̶s̶t̶o̶r̶ ̶w̶a̶n̶t̶s̶ ̶t̶h̶e̶m̶ ̶t̶o̶ ̶g̶r̶o̶w̶ ̶s̶l̶o̶w̶e̶r̶.
G̶o̶i̶n̶g̶ ̶t̶o̶ ̶b̶a̶c̶k̶ ̶t̶o̶ ̶y̶o̶u̶r̶ ̶a̶n̶a̶l̶o̶g̶y̶ ̶t̶h̶e̶y̶'̶r̶e̶ ̶s̶e̶l̶l̶i̶n̶g̶ ̶c̶o̶k̶e̶s̶ ̶f̶o̶r̶ ̶$̶1̶ ̶t̶h̶a̶t̶ ̶c̶o̶s̶t̶ ̶$̶.̶8̶5̶ ̶t̶o̶ ̶m̶a̶k̶e̶.̶.̶.̶ ̶b̶u̶t̶ ̶t̶h̶e̶y̶'̶r̶e̶ ̶a̶l̶s̶o̶ ̶g̶e̶t̶t̶i̶n̶g̶ ̶s̶u̶b̶s̶i̶d̶i̶e̶s̶ ̶a̶n̶d̶ ̶b̶a̶r̶e̶l̶y̶ ̶b̶r̶e̶a̶k̶i̶n̶g̶ ̶e̶v̶e̶n̶ ̶b̶e̶c̶a̶u̶s̶e̶ ̶t̶h̶e̶y̶ ̶a̶r̶e̶ ̶s̶p̶e̶n̶d̶i̶n̶g̶ ̶s̶o̶ ̶m̶u̶c̶h̶ ̶o̶n̶ ̶n̶e̶w̶ ̶c̶o̶l̶a̶ ̶f̶a̶c̶t̶o̶r̶i̶e̶s̶.̶
The Air Pollution impact on the health of the population and a reduction in the respiratory illness/other heath impacts must be figured in as part of the equation regardless of who is helped by the credits. The Credits will indirectly help to reduce pollution especially in crowded urban areas and reduce the overall rates of sickness related to ICE Pollution! That ICE pollution also takes its toll on Building facades and statuary and even has an affect on roads and bridges so that's another reason to have the credits until the EV production can become viable on its own without the need of any credits/assistance.
There's nothing wrong with Tesla receiving credits, or even "counting" the credit dollars as profit. It's real cash coming in.
But when you are trying to analyze the financials of the company to determine a valuation, noticing that without the credits (whose accounting is opaque and which won't last forever) they lose money, is important.
This is why the GM announcement is significant: Tesla will have to learn to up the quality and reduce cost so they can survive without the subsidy.
Having said that, sign me up for multiple vehicles once I’m energy independent! I see no problem with them using credits to bootstrap carbon neutral transportation.
But the ICE automakers are all going to be offering EVs and on their Own to make their own credits usable but Tesla/others are eventually going to be viable without the credits needed.