Comment by eqdw | Hacker News Reader

Comment by eqdw | Hacker News Reader

This author appears to be completely unaware that, in the US anyway, the progress of the pandemic has been completely and totally disconnected from all control measures.

San Francisco, where I'm told (and believe, based on having lived there) that they had very strict lockdown measures:

https://www.sfdph.org/dph/alerts/coronavirus.asp

* Population: ~900,000

* Total Cases: 31,111 (3,457 / 100k)

* Total Deaths: 324 (36 / 100k)

Compare Austin, TX, where I can personally attest that basically everyone has said fuck the rules for almost six months now

https://austin.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#...

* Population: ~2,400,000

* Total Cases: 68,290 (2,845 / 100k)

* Total Deaths: 655 (27 / 100k)

The stats are virtually identical despite dramatically different policy decisions. So what the hell is the point?

As an addendum, to put this into perspective: in 2020, Oakland's murder rate was 23/100k, making it _almost as high as the covid death rate_. Why is it that one year of covid deaths is a world-destroying incident, but _every_ year of Oakland deaths and nobody does anything about it ever? Are Bay Area people really just that racist?

Those lockdowns are not actual lockdowns, and were doomed to fail.

Moreover lockdown restrictions were removed when numbers of new cases simply lowered, as opposed to all known cases being removed from community and quarantined, and confidence there was zero community transmission.

Meanwhile borders are porous, with new cases arriving constantly. The combination of all this is heartbreakingly difficult to observe.

Honestly this stuff is easy.

A lockdown means only essential workers who actually keep the lights on and provide food go to work, and they do with ridiculous protection.

It means no fast food delivery, no public transport or Ubers, no leaving your residence except for exercise (maybe - some places you had to stay inside) and 1/week shop at the supermarket (or delivery) with one person/household.

It means closing the borders firmly, and government-provided and provisioned (not outsourced) quarantining every arrival for at least 14 days.

And it means providing plenty of funding and kindness to businesses and people to allow them to get through without fear. Including putting homeless into homes (e.g. empty hotel rooms).

And it needs to last long enough to know and isolate every case, which is say 6-8 weeks if done properly.

The US and UK failed on every one of these tests, and hundreds of thousands of people are dead.

Meanwhile in New Zealand we did the above almost a year ago, and are enjoying our summer break essentially normally.

NZ has a population of less than ~5mil, with 1/3rd being on one city, and no land borders with anyone (people claiming "border is just as good as being an island" don't realize that, before we even get to illegal crossings, border areas in Canada/USA and Mexico/USA are integrated and numerous, whereas in NZ any cross-border traffic is designed full-time around specialized chokepoints like ports and airports.

Good luck doing that in a country of 320mil with no internal border infrastructure or legal framework whatsoever, and a huge land-based border.

That said, even if it were possible, I'd take liberty over safety (from a vastly overblown hazard by all estimates) in this case; really grateful to an American for this crisis.

Nowhere in the US has really had harsh lockdown measures.

SF also has density issues that will drive up the r0 of the virus. While the widely quoted r0 of the virus is around 3.0, the r0 in NYC at the start of the outbreak was estimated to be 5.0

(You could argue about if that was really the r(t) and not r0, but I'm not considering time-dependence or the reaction to the virus, but the actual starting reproduction number in NYC before there was any human reaction to the virus -- that isn't a constant value but depends on the local conditions).

Austin has an overall 3,000 people per square mile density, SF has an overall 18,000 people per square mile (and some areas are even more dense than that).

Density is not an issue - just stay inside. Overcrowding per household is a big issue.

My perception, born and raised east-bay, is the Oakland has been a lost cause (for murders) since at least 1985. And more than one mayoral candidate has talked up the issue.

But, and this is the terrible part, the murder happens to "the poors". So, IMO,, it's less about racism and more about classism (possibly rooted in racism).

It's similar to how we (usa) don't care too much about the covid deaths. It's like Earthican tradition for disease and pestilence to affect poor folks first/more and for the wealthy to just not see it (they simply look the other way).

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