> 700M Chinese citizens who live on $140/month income.
That's an incredible amount of space for internal economic growth.
That's an incredible amount of space for internal economic growth.
The most probable reality is that neither the bulls, nor the bears, have any clue what will come in China. They probably make less money if they admit that though. "There's too many variables to be certain." Probably sells less than, "The Secret to the Future of China!" So they have to go one way or the other to justify their paychecks maybe?
And China has taken 700 (800?) million people out of poverty and shows a trajectory similar to the East Asian tigers.
I'm thinking about Italy: after WWII, the country was still mainly rural and much had to be rebuilt because of the war. And yet (with the help and blessing of the US, then much interested in keeping Italy on the side of the West) it experienced twenty years of rapid economic growth. It had a good education system, and it had manufacturing capacity (FIAT, Olivetti, Montedison, Ansaldo, Zanussi...) and especially, it had tens of millions who wanted to buy their first car, their first washing machine, their first tv, their first telephone, or wanted to rebuild their houses with modern techniques. It needed workers for the factories and sourced them from the poorest parts of the country, triggering an internal migration and further growth in the economic capitals of the country. China seems to have been in the same phase for the past 30 years, and it's so big it can keep up at the same pace for other 20 or 30.
If there were actual growth in the economy, China would not outlaw hong kong citizens from leaving to go to England, creating a wall with myanmar to prevent citizens from escaping to there, having concentration camps to force uighurs to work for free, etc.