Comment by alibarber | Hacker News Reader

Comment by alibarber | Hacker News Reader

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I think your proposal is what will end up happening.

Johnson has refused to commit to blocking exports of the vaccine. He's a long way from my preffered politician, but people who describe him as a British Trump are wrong. He is no idiot (1). He knows he's been handed a politically interesting situation and is also aware of what state the UK is in with regard to vaccine supply (one of the best in the world at this time) and what benefits some careful political manoeuvering will be able to bring in this time.

Allow me some hyperbole, but the optics of 'Generous UK offers salve to unfortunate vaccine-poverty stricken EU' - whilst sickening would make for some lovely press in the right-wing tabloids and might even go a little way towards his desired 'comming together' of a divided nation.

(1) Yes - Brexit was indeed idiotic but I truly believe he never actually wanted it, and it just got him his longed-for premiership by unfortunate accidental means.

I think the 'political optics' win for Johnson is going to more likely be: "We are the first major country to reach near full vaccination".

Bibi in Israel is facing intense political ambiguity, and they are paying 3-4x (for the vaccines) what other countries are paying, and have apparently been doing some behind the scenes shenanigans for acquisition, I mean it's Isreal, that's what they do (no offence to those who might take it that way but they are the most realpolitik country on planet earth). They are way ahead of anyone else and I suggest this is Bibi's political salvation plan.

Boris, similarly.

It's a little bit conspiratorial, but wouldn't be surprised if there are some behind the scenes actions by UK gov. to make sure the UK is first.

Also consider that the EU is frankly playing a losing hand and they look really bad from this.

This is a major existential crisis and if China, US and UK end up with full vaccinations months ahead of the EU it's going to be very, very damaging.

At minimum, the EU has to make a very big public stink about it to ensure people know/believe that the EU is doing what is possible, to mitigate the damage and possibly to be able to push the blame a little bit to others.

Finally - there's nothing wrong with the UK offering the EU help, and that it would also end up being good PR. The problem with the claim is not that it's 'sickening' but rather it's frankly not a huge material PR win. It's a nice thing but it's only worth a news cycle or two.

Having the UK immunized a few months ahead of the EU, irrespective of the underlying realities, is going to be something that will be remembered and analyzed for a decade.

Frankly, in the end, I actually think it's far too risky for any EU/UK politicos to be playing underhanded games, the blowout would be devastating. I just think it's a matter of operational reality that the UK is doing well on this (note they are doing very poorly on infections), though I do feel EU has dropped the ball on securing vaccines from a wider base. Even Canada has put in options to purchase from a variety of sources.

The lorry driver carrying the vaccines from the UK would probably end up getting turned back at the French border for having ham in his sandwiches.

> do feel EU has dropped the ball on securing vaccines from a wider base

But the EU also bought from pfizer and moderna?

Thank you for this comment - it's a solid argument.

I agree entirely with your last paragraph, I do hope that cool heads prevail.

He fumbled and stumbled into premiership- but now he's going to be capable of "some careful political manoeuvering". The man who made his career as a journalist by badmouthing the EU? I find this very unlikely.

Yes, I guess it's a bit of a push, and maybe I'm grasping at straws here. But the man is insincere in everything he does, and I'd include his badmouthing the EU in that.

He'll do what he thinks is best for his vote share, and my, admittedly amateur, reading of this situation is that he might well make a trade off in that direction. Although the latest news from Northern Ireland might be rocking the boat a bit too much. We'll just have to see I guess - but these days I'll expect anything.

Who knows, you may be right. That would actually be the best outcome, regardless of the Comission losing face and Boris getting bragging rights.

> He fumbled and stumbled into premiership

He took a razor-thin majority and turned it into a huge one. He’s PM because he ruthlessly executed a plan to become it. He won almost every brinkmanship point with the EU that he took on over the last year.

He’s not who I want as PM, and I think his record is dismal, but if you think he “fumbled and stumbled” his way in then you’ve fallen for his con: he’s bright and ruthless.

He did so against the weakest opposition, overwhelmed with infighting and a lacklustre leader, seen in a generation, campaigning solely on the notion of "Getting Brexit Done (tm)" (barely) after 4 years of MPs arguing about it. Traditional Labour seats were lost based on Brexit fence-sitting. They will revert, especially as those constituents are slowly realising that getting Brexit done meant screwing them over. Johnson's Tories didn't so much win, it was essentially a one horse race.

*Edit: That said, speaking as a staunch remainer, as much as we need to accept that we can't have our cake and eat it, the EU must recognise the same. It's their own fault that they're in this position.

> He did so against the weakest opposition, overwhelmed with infighting and a lacklustre leader

All of which was also present in 2017 when May squeaked to victory

> Campaigning solely on the notion of “Getting Brexit Done”

which ... was effective and led to the largest landslide in 40 years.

I think he’s been a crap PM but the idea that he’s not a sharp political mind with a keen sense of the political mood is insane.

May squeaked by because hardline brexiters (Johnson/Rees-Mogg/Farage acolytes, of which there are fighteningly many) saw her a someone pandering to Brussels and remainers. She was an unpopular PM on all sides, where as Johnson is just a populist.

> ...he’s not a sharp political mind with a keen sense of the political mood is insane.

He's a chancer. As an example, he refused to go on the Marr Show, relenting to only to capitalise on a national tragedy so that he could wave his populist flag. You could call that 'sharp', I'd call it cowardly. His saving grace was Cummings, and with him mercifully out of the picture, we'll see the real Boris.

Sorry what planet are you on, he won exactly zero the UK backtracked on everything and the EU got exactly what it wanted.

As far as I can see he was greatly helped into power by Labour repeatedly choosing an unelectable leadership in the form of Corbyn, Abbott, McDonnell, et al.

They were extremely popular with a small vocal minority but when you’ve got Dianne Abbott having say she no longer believes that “every defeat of the British state is a victory for us all” why would anyone vote for them to be in charge of the British state?

So instead we’ve got the Tories and ministers like Nadhim Zahawi, who changed his family office rental company into “Warren Medical Limited“ ...right around the time he was put in charge of vaccine contracts.

It was a choice between the openly corrupt right and anti-British, student politics of the hard-left.

> As far as I can see he was greatly helped into power by Labour repeatedly choosing an unelectable leadership

I don't disagree on this, but Corbyn predated the Brexit referendum, and BoJo made his series of choices that left him in power knowing full well what the opposition looked like. He certainly had a fair share of luck, but the idea of him bumbling accidentally into No 10 is both naive and playing exactly into his hands.

Oh I don’t buy the “Bumbling Boris” act at all.

You only have to look at the way he tried to manipulate the search results on the whole bus thing by later claiming he liked to paint buses on broken packing crates.

Or the speeches he made in favour of the EU but later reversed when he saw he could turn Brexit to his favour.

I think he’s a very calculating and manipulative man, and not to be trusted or underestimated.

A man (or a woman) can be very calculating and manipulative, sly as a fox and fast as a rabbit, but at the same time a greedy fool who stubmles and fumbles and never gets what he wants:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Iznogoud

Or, most of the time, gets exactly what he bargains for. In the case of Johnson, that's being Prime Minister in the middle of Brexit and just before an unforeseen pandemic that kills dozens of thousands of his citizens.

He must be thaking god very hard for AstraZeneca right now.

Boris Johnoson is an educated man and I don't doubt his intelligence. What I was referring to was his decision to back Brexit and go against David Cameron during the 2016 referendum, which to my mind is what put him in line for the premiership. The way I see it -it's entierly an interpretation from what I've read in the news- Johnson had wanted to be Prime Minister in the place of the Prime Minister ever since he joined the Tory party. When David Cameron proclaimed a referendum, Boris Johnson spent some time on the fence, trying to decide whether he should back Brexit, or back Cameron. His criterion must have obviously been the chances of becoming Prime Minister in the place of the Prime Minister, depending on the choice. Eventually he decided to go against David Cameron and back Brexit, which from my recollection was seen as a big bail on Cameron. I believe, neither Johnson nor anyone else could predict the outcome of the referendum at the time, so Johnson basically gambled. He would very likely be sidelined for a long time if he chose wrong. He happened to choose right, fell on the side of the penalty kick and positioned himself in the line to the throne.

But none of this happened thanks to his careful planning. Johnson was lucky to be associated with the Euroskeptic Tory right as an attack journalist writing defamatory pieces for EU institutions, before he joined the party. Then he struck gold when David Cameron put his head in the mouth of the wolf with the 2016 referendum.

He's an opportunist who got lucky.

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