Comment by ncmncm | Hacker News Reader

Comment by ncmncm | Hacker News Reader

A big part of the problem is these anodyne expressions "climate change" and "global warming". They say, "so what?"

We should only ever be saying "Global Climate Disruption".

I am estimating a 50% chance of global civilization collapse by 2030.

It starts with crop failure in tropical and subtropical countries. Fishery collapse, as coral reefs are wiped out by bleaching and acidification, slashes access to protein. Famine drives mass refugee migration across borders.

Rich, temperate countries panic at the influx and allow fascists into power (as has already happened in Brazil, Hungary, the Philippines, Turkey, India and Russia, and is only forestalled in the US, Italy, France, and Germany; pace China and the former SSRs).

Fascists in power will (as they do) start wars, disrupting trade, generating economic crises, and more wars spiraling out of control, and ultimately nuclear exchange.

A big part of the problem is actually refrigerants; HFCs currently in use, if vented, force as much heating as all the CO2 already in the atmosphere. We could remove CO2, in principle, but not the HFCs.

You might suggest 2030 is too soon, and 2040 more likely. I hope so, but it doesn't make that much difference, really. If we don't act like 2030 is the deadline, we will hit one soon enough.

Surely you mean "guessing"? What are you basing your estimate on? An estimate is based on metrics. You can't use that word "estimate" without at least citing what you base it on.

If you were to reach 2030 and things are alright climate wise, would you decide you are wrong, or pick another deadline? What is your criteria for deciding whether or not you should change your mind?

Those are entirely the wrong questions to be asking.

I usually don't get frisky on this site because I prefer productive discussion, but the snotty hubris you've just demonstrated is nauseating. You're telling me that I shouldn't ask certain questions?

Tell me then. Tell me, what should I be concerned about. What sort of discussion should I he engaged in? What should my opinions be? How can I be as right as you?

What is your expectation for the response to 100M refugees pouring across the border?

Refugees from where?

I wouldn’t expect the collapse of global civilization

Show me where that's happening because of climate change. Oh, I know, its gonna happen soon™.

You can sell me doom by showing me. Again I ask, risking asking the wrong question, where's your support for your "estimate" that society will collapse globally by 2030 due to climate change?

The car is speeding toward a cliff edge. "Maybe the cliff edge is 200 feet away, not 100. Maybe the cliff is only 100 feet high, not 200. Could there be some gravel at the bottom, and not just boulders? Maybe it's not a cliff at all! Let's just think about this more. It would be terrible to act and then discover we didn't need to, just yet!"

What facts are you in doubt about? Do you have doubts that, as already-hot places become uninhabitable, people will flee toward places that are not, instead of staying put and, you know, dying? Europe is failing to absorb the refugee influx it already sees. In the US, 70M+ people voted for fascism in 2016 and in 2020, and a BorderWall™.

Do you doubt that as coral reefs bleach and oceans acidify, fisheries will collapse? They are already collapsing. Do you believe that as people fail to get enough protein, they will not respond with desperation?

Or are you one who insists that we don't have proof sufficiently iron-clad that record-high temperatures and record-low ocean pH will continue responding, as predicted and as observed for decades, to rising CO2 levels, and that we must act as if nothing is happening?

Why does fascism come up with you every time your comment is more than 2 sentences long? We aren't talking about fascism, we are talking about climate change. Could the two be ideologically linked for you perhaps?

Your car speeding towards a cliff analogy presupposes your argument. I'd argue that a bumpy road is coming, not a cliff. I'd like you to show me why you believe it is a cliff, and that it is coming within 9 years.

Facts I'm in doubt about: that global societal collapse is coming by 2030. You could change my mind here, I'm practically begging you to do it, all you have to do is show me.

I don't doubt that coral reefs bleach, but I do doubt that it is really that big a deal, and I have reasons why. Here is one: https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC2982020/ they are not collapsing. See what I did there? If you could do that, just once, that would be great. You might even convince me that total societal collapse will occur by 2030.

I'm in doubt that climate change will cause famines that create a 200M migration problem worldwide. If you could give me a reason to believe that, and that it will happen by the year 2030, I'd really appreciate that very much.

1. Why?

2. What are the right questions?

Anyone can be a doomsayer.

The right questions never seem to be the ones that ask the ideologue to explain his totally correct position.

If so, it implies your original statement was entirely the wrong statement to be making.

> I am estimating a 50% chance of global civilization collapse by 2030.

You are saying that the human population will be ~3,500,000,000 less in the next ten years? That's...an extraordinary claim to make.

> Global collapse by 2030

Al Gore... is that you? https://cei.org/blog/wrong-again-50-years-of-failed-eco-poca...

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