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Haven’t gotten a chance to dig in in-depth: how confident are they that the initial prevalence study was solid?

It’s based on a sample and extrapolated out so it’s entirely possible initial immunity was overestimated. Possibility for bias in the sampling of who was tested and such. Hopefully it’s just a statistical fluke but everyone is sort of on edge at this point watching for this starting to happen.

It’s not really a question of if the virus will mutate to reinfect people again (or infect those vaccinated) but more of when and if we can get to herd immunity before that happens.

Umm, so there are current news reports that poorer countries won't be able to get vaccinated until 2024. If the number of mutations is proportional to the number of people infected then even if the entire populations of wealthy countries are vaccinated, it seems like the chance of variants that evade the vaccines arising in outside populations is high. Herd immunity in wealthier countries would not protect them in that case.

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