Anyone wanna bet me that Tesla will be first to full level 5 self driving? Seems to be a lot of anti-Tesla folks here, put your money where your mouth is.
So either they've been doing absolutely nothing for the past 8 years until getting level 4 driverless car in Phoenix. It's only a level 4 right now, since it does not work in all conditions, but it's still far ahead of Tesla's level 3 which requires the driver's attention.
So far Tesla hasn't shown anything that Waymo did not have at least 5+ years ago.
Do you have an article/video you can share by any chance?
I've been following Google's self driving efforts for years and must've missed that.
Ever wonder why Waymo only have their fleet in a geofenced area of AZ?
https://www.reddit.com/r/waymo/comments/c24bcu/i_got_finally...
Videos recorded by the company will always be cherry picked by definition, since they would only post videos that show the technology in its optimal working state. And there's always a driver behind the wheel checking everything goes right.
The reason Waymo is operating the way it does is they realize that they need to be 120% cautious, as ONE accident is all it takes to throw all their work a decade behind, jst like one accident is all it took to completely kill Uber's self driving effort. So again, it's not that they need a fully mapped geofenced area, it's that they choose to use that for now.
Hell, Tesla themselves posted their first "A to B" video back in 2016, yet here we are 5 years later and from a high level, what they showed in that cherry picked video they posted isn't much different to an average viewer, but no one would claim that they haven't improved at all in the past 5 years.
This is basic anecdotal data vs real statistics. A video tells you nothing about where the technology is. Unless we can see real open data about miles driven and number of disengagements, there's no way to tell if Tesla is doing well or not. So far Waymo's numbers are an order of magnitude better than any competition.
Except FSD Beta videos are coming from actual Tesla owners. Like the one I linked above. A pretty glaring difference.
These are just one of many:
> A video tells you nothing about where the technology is. Unless we can see real open data about miles driven and number of disengagements, there's no way to tell if Tesla is doing well or not. So far Waymo's numbers are an order of magnitude better than any competition.
You just contradicted yourself. Tesla actually publishes their data here: [1] https://www.tesla.com/VehicleSafetyReport and here [2]. https://electrek.co/2020/04/22/tesla-autopilot-data-3-billio...
Unless of course, you have inside knowledge on Waymo's stats/data. If that's the case. Please feel free to share.
Waymo realizes that one accident is all it takes to completely destroy their operation, just like it killed Uber's self driving division. Tesla on the other hand has shown that they are prepared to be far more reckless and release things early just for headlines. To me it's meaningless who puts it out "first" because that's not a metric of how good the technology actually is. I'm interested in miles driven and disengagement statistics, which Tesla hasn't really been openly putting out like Waymo.
All I know is that right now, Waymo is the only company with an actual publicly available L4 driving car out in the streets, that is fully driverless with no one behind the steering wheel. And they have been for over a year. Meanwhile Tesla's latest private beta still requires someone behind the wheel and paying attention, and therefore is only L3.
Cars with level 4 + remote assistance will be driving people around for a decade or more, phoning home less and less over time until one day someone notes that no car has phoned home for an entire year. Then maybe a car will phone home and the clock will start again. Decades from then, people will shut down the last remote assistance center.
But at that point, nobody will care about declaring Level 5 because we will have been riding around for decades in cars without steering wheels that we don't have to drive.
We need to agree to what constitutes full level 5 self driving.
My interpretation of it is a car that can drive itself anywhere in the world, has been approved for commercial use in at least one country, AND recognized as the first to full self driving in at least 2 major publications.
We can put a 5 year time limit on the bet.
> Anyone wanna bet me that Tesla will be first to full level 5 self driving?
Well, no, because (independent of opinion on the subject of the proposed bet), counterparty risk.
There's a lot better places to bet against (or for) Tesla where that problem is much better controlled.