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Comment by tracedddd | Hacker News Reader

Interesting article, but I disagree with the conclusion. Smart car style vehicles never really caught on. They have a poor user experience. Cramped and they don’t feel very safe. Most people can’t ride a motorcycle either. They’re cool, but Apple isn’t about to target a specialty market with a play like this.

I theorize Apple will produce a car, but surprise us by having zero ownership. It’ll be entirely plan based, a service subscription to compete with Uber. They’re just waiting for self driving to be feasible, so there are no drivers required.

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Please no! No one is asking for ownership to be disrupted, we want someone to disrupt terrible cars. Modern cars are terrible, the UX is horrid, the software never gets updated, and the look and feel of a good middle class car is just trash.

I own a model 3 and love it, yes it has some gap problems, yes structurally it might not be as sound as a Toyota but the car is a dream to drive. The experience is so much better than an internal combustion engine that i'll never go back. There's nothing quite like instant torque on the freeway while traveling 80 miles an hour.

I’m asking for ownership to be disrupted. It’s insane we all have our own and they have such low utilisation.

They are almost always stationary parked somewhere when privately owned.

And keeping our in-transit coronavirus molecules contained.

The horror.

Your use case is probably different. But the vehicle parked outside my house is one:

- Whose features I very deliberately chose

- Has a roof rack that can accommodate my canoe and/or kayak

- Has all the stuff I carry around with me--especially for northern winter driving

And if I want to run to the store right now, I can be on the road in 1 minute. I don't want fractional ownership and I'm sure I'm not unusual. Most of the depreciation is in the miles anyway. And, to the degree it becomes more related to how old the car is, that will be reflected in the costs.

Your car is only second in the place you feel comfortable to your home. I'm at work all day (pre covid) and my home is sitting empty 50% of the time, so why should I own a home, maybe I can just sleep in a shared fractionally owned home.

Never going to be accepted, by all means electrify cars and make them smarter and have robotaxis for when I can't drive. But the car ownership thing will never go away.

> No one is asking for ownership to be disrupted

I'm asking for it right now. And have been for some time.

Well... I absolutely am looking for a car subscription. Volvo created something close to what I’m looking for.

https://www.volvocars.com/us/care-by-volvo/

I just want it for an electric car.

I'm always confused by statements like this. A Toyota runs 25+ years pretty reliably, they have a reputation for being well made.

Tesla has large fitting problems with panel gaps, not closing doors, leaky or even loose roofs, bad paint, etc.

How do people trust Tesla to make cars that work even remotely as long as a Toyota? I don't want to own a car that I cannot resell after 10 years because it's worn down too much.

I'm not advocating for ICE here, I'm talking about the chassis part of the car.

> How do people trust Tesla to make cars that work even remotely as long as a Toyota? I don't want to own a car that I cannot resell after 10 years because it's worn down too much.

Anecdotal experience, but most Tesla owners I know don’t really care about resale value 10 years down the line. Tesla owners are pretty well off who wouldn’t be buying a Toyota Corolla in the first place anyway.

They are willing to overlook reliability issues for an EV experience with considerably better UX than traditional manufacturers (tbf some parts of it are bad too like not having a heads up display or all-touch interface), some shiny features and gimmicks which is more akin to using an iPhone than operating a car.

I personally think the build quality is an abomination for a $40k+ price tag car, which is why I don’t own one. But I can see why some people prefer a Tesla for the overall experience and a certain cool factor.

Doesn't that mean though that tesla will be limited to people with money to waste or that it will lose a big chunk of its early to the market customer base once traditional car manufacturers enter the game at similar price ranges?

Remains to be seen. I think the hope from a lot of Tesla owners is that they improve quality control so they can stay in the ecosystem.

You could say that about just ICE cars too. Why would anyone want to buy a Porsche or a BMW (or even a Ford or VW) when they can have the rock solid reliability and lower depreciation of a Toyota?

Also, leasing has become so much more common that Toyota and other (mostly Japanese) manufacturers key strength in long term reliability isn't as big of a factor as it used to be. If you're only keeping the car around for 3 years anyways, it doesn't matter so much if the car is notorious for falling apart after 5 years.

That's why I buy reliable cars from established carmakers with proven reliability records. I buy used cars coming off their three year lease. Most leases require all the service be done on time and by the dealer so you know you're getting a quality used car - and I'm saving thousands of dollars. Then you drive it for five years because there's a market for people looking for cheap, reliable cars for second cars or for their kids to drive. Seems to work for all involved and for me personally, I'm minimizing my purchase price while minimizing my need to do major repairs.

And I 100% respect your approach and consider it logical and sound.

That said, it's not for me, and not for many, many other people for whom a car is not just a reliable appliance to go from point A to point B with minimal fuss and minimal financial expenditure.

Which is why even brands with horrific reliability and depreciation like Alfa Romeo still sells.

Personally, in the context of fully autonomous self driving cars, I can’t see how ownership would make any sense any more. If the car can drive itself off to find a charging station somewhere densely packed and leave the streets free of any parked cars, imagine how much space would be reclaimable.

I see how it would take a shift in mindset, but the liberation that I think would come with the freedom for the car that drives you to your destination not needing to be the same one that drives you home... I think that’s revolutionary.

People are disgusting and I have zero desire to share a vehicle with another person let alone thousands of people.

There will be no shift in mindset. No. Just no.

I don’t even like getting into my partner’s car...

Presumably you never get on a plane to fly anywhere then.

How is an autonomous car any different from taking an Uber? I think most people who currently own a car rather than taking an Uber or taxi everywhere will continue to own a car after self driving cars are a thing - there is a lot of value in having a car immediately available to you no matter what, and it's nice to drive around in your car that is set up how you want and has all of your things in it.

I think if autonomous cars are much cheaper than Uber it could push some people to get rid of their car due to cost, but personally I would never do that since a cheap car isn't a huge expense.

It’s mostly like taking an Uber, but I think the future will have many more instant-car users, since it is so convenient in major cities.

There are benefits of course, a self driving taxi could show up configured to your exact specifications, would probably be a more standard/reliable experience than Uber, no need to interact with people if you don’t feel like it, and no need to consider them either. Play loud music or sit in silence. Make a private call. Sleep.

Relatively minor benefits in the big picture but it’s mainly that I don’t see Apple hiring a bunch of drivers, so I think a self driving fleet could be the dream. They’re big on UX control, kinda their signature.

I think a lot of people overestimate how much of a cost uplift comes from having a ~minimum wage driver piloting the vehicle. Been a while since I looked at the numbers but say you could cut the prices of an Uber by about 50% per mile--which is the ballpark number--how many people would give up their cars outside of dense cities if they haven't already done so. (Assuming they can buy autonomous vehicles themselves.)

Really? In the middle of a pandemic where Covid-19 lives on surfaces for days, you can't see a reason not to use a ride-sharing car?

Surfaces and handwashing were a distraction by American public health officials largely too stupid and proud to listen to Asians telling them to open all the windows and wear masks. Spend more time asking why your office windows are stuck closed.

I’m imagining that without ownership, car companies would begin to operate like the worst American companies.

You’d have super complex mileage caps. Per-minute surcharges for peak & late night hours. Early subscription termination fees. Zoning issues: Only Kia & Suzuki will service your neighborhood, while your neighbor down the block can get a Toyota with twice the range allowance at half the cost. The median income for your particular area may not justify building charging center hubs by other manufacturers.

In the event of a power or telecommunication outage, the centralization will undoubtedly strand people wherever they are.

Then, the moralists. Since you don’t own the vehicle, they can dictate how you use it. No driving to the strip club or liquor store on Sunday. Arbitrary restrictions on what you’re allowed to transport. It can be a new vector to govern behavior and control populations.

You’re probably right, but doesn’t Apple kind of seem like a company that would be well positioned to reduce all these issues for a luxury price? Well, perhaps besides moralist issues, if the App Store is any indication.

In larger cities, yes. In midsize cities, unlikely. The walkability score in my neighborhood is not very good. If I want to go to the store, I can hop on my car when and be there in 10 minutes. If I had to wait for a car to come pick me up everything, that would be annoying.

Not only that, but lots of people’s identities are grounded in the type of car they drive. You’ll never pry that away from those people, you’ll have to wait for a new generation who haven’t formed that type of bond to an vechicle.

I agree on the immediate availability of your car being an issue that will hinder this model but the 2nd concern can be addressed by having multiple subscription levels with a premium level guaranteeing only luxury cars pick you up.

Either way I consider cars a personal item same way as I wouldn't share my laptop.

Not only that, but lots of people’s identities are grounded in the type of car they drive.

That didn't happen by accident. It has taken a huge effort on the part of car manufacturers to get to that point.

Everyone on the supply side seems to want ownership disrupted. It reduces material waste, and permits for continuous monetization in a world where the environment's needs supercede the externalities of productive growth.

I'm not happy about it (in fact I'm quite terrified of it). But to quote the IMF in their predictions for 2030, "You'll own nothing, and you'll be happy".

I wouldn't worry about this too much. Psychology is in favor of ownership - people have hardwired hoarding behavior.

I don't. I find owning stuff a burden. The only reason I own my own house is because the rental sector is so dysfunctional in the UK.

So maybe there are more psychological factors. So hoarding, plus a part control, some signaling and a bit of tradition.

I think the model 3 UI is terrible too. I believe there should be a status display directly ahead of the driver, and direct controls for critical driving functions.

Why can't Tesla relent just a bit - adding a dashboard and discrete single-use controls for windshield wipers, defog, lights and autopilot?

Musk is like Jobs in that regard. Putting stuff on the 3/Y like a simple instrument dash like on the S/X or even a HUD seem to be things he is vehemently opposed to. Supposedly because the car will drive itself, thus there is no need for such instruments (of course we know as of January 2021 that hasn't happened yet and not likely to happen soon).

Rumor has it the S/X will lose its instrument cluster for its next (imminent) refresh too.

Shame because the 3 would otherwise be perfect for my next car, which I'd like to make an EV.

> Modern cars are terrible

Huh! My experience is the opposite. Modern cars are engineering marvels.

> the UX is horrid

My car's UX is absolutely delightful. I have well defined controls (steering wheel, brake pedal, clutch pedal, accelerator pedal, gear shift, light buttons) that are close to 100% reliable and easy to operate. The car works every time just as I expect it to. No surprises, no bs.

> the software never gets updated

Why would I ever want to update my car's software?? It works perfectly. It is almost 13 years old and I don't recall ever encountering a software bug. I'm sure I will continue to use this car as long as my local RTO continues to renew the license.

> look and feel of a good middle class car is just trash.

Now this is subjective, so I'll let you have this one.

I'm sure your Tesla is way better to drive than my $10k car, but that's not to say modern cars are "terrible". They are absolutely amazing.

>Please no! No one is asking for ownership to be disrupted,

Apple shareholders are asking for more services revenue.

I still like Apple Taxi Services better than all of their current services revenue stream direction.

I am increasingly siding with Horace Dediu on Micromobility. So Taxi and No Car ownership seems like an extension to that.

To me, what you wrote reads like "I want other people to rent their cars (from Apple)".

That's not very persuasive.

Not that I "want", just a possibility of trends and direction.

Here is something I want, MacBook Pro 2015 fitted with M1 and dont touch anything else.

> we want someone to disrupt terrible cars.

Not me. All I want is something like a modern day Lexus or BMW, but with a Tesla drivetrain. They can leave everything else the same.

> the UX is horrid

No. Car UX is fine by me. I turn the key or press the button that says "start" and the car starts. Each button does what it should on a single press. Wipers, tail lights, headlights indicator lights, brake, pedal, accelerator, everything works as it should. It is an example of good ux that my phone, my desktop , laptop and my server should copy. But they can't because they serve different functions. So just let it be.

> software never gets updated

Thank God for it. I never have to wait for my car to start because it is waiting for updates to be installed like my laptop does. There is no last update that needs patching for the speedometer to show me the speed. There's no bug that causes security concerns for me.

Seriously removing ICE hardware and replacing it with simpler electric hardware was a great move. Lets not screw it up with adding more software into it. Except self driving.

I also hate the fact that cars with “smart” technology start feeling dated after just a handful of years, just like my smartphone. And I’m not planning to commit to a similar upgrade cycle.

If some stories are to be believed then Tesla has sales people that expect Tesla owners to buy a new car after 3-5 years.

I don't think that's possible for the vast majority of people. A car should reliably take me for A to B and not lose 70% of its features just because the manufacturer decided to EOL the online service.

In states like CA, this means paying $4,000 to $10,000 in sales/use tax with each purchase. It’s an incredibly inefficient way to pay for having access to a car. If you’re going to trade in that frequently, it’s probably smarter to lease. (I say this as someone who generally opposes leasing and has never done so.)

It does cost money, but if you sell, you can pass part of that tax on to the buyer, as they’ll want to pay a bit more to avoid having to pay that tax themselves.

Huh? They’ll pay sales/use tax on the purchase of your used car as well.

I drive a 10 year old vehicle and I feel like it has all the technology I really need or want. I might upgrade to something electric in the future, but I don't feel 'compelled' for any reason.

My vehicle's primary purpose is to get me from Point A to Point B. Anything else that gets crammed in there is just more gravy on my meat and potatoes.

Help me to understand why the "feeling dated" part of a vehicle is important to you? Or rather, what does a car from 2015 lack, that a car from 2020 has, that you find differentiates them enormously?

Good lane keeping and collision avoidance could be a lifesaver in some situations. Same for having other driver assistance features like good adaptive cruise control and auto-steering - long trips can be less fatiguing when the car is driving itself most of the time.

Our family has a 2012 VW Golf and a 2017 VW Golf. Compared to the former, the latter has a number of worthwhile upgrades. CarPlay makes both navigation and music enormously better. Automatic parallel parking comes in handy for getting into tight spaces, especially when there's pressure from cars waiting behind you. Automated emergency warning/braking has probably saved our 16-year-old from at least one minor accident so far. Radar cruise control definitely lessens fatigue during road trips.

None of this is essential, but to me the difference in user experience is notable when going from one car to the other.

A year or two ago I had access to a Tesla Model X for a period of time. I remember when the Netflix and YouTube watching features came out; I thought it was the dumbest thing. But then I realized I was spending probably a couple of hours a week sitting in parking lots waiting for my kids to get out of extracurricular activities (pre-covid), or waiting at the cell phone lot at the airport, etc. And having a huge screen and high quality audio to pass the time was pretty nice.

Fantastic points. Thank you for sharing your experiences.

not OP, but I think the 'smart' features are what feel dated. Perhaps not quite the same, but in late 90s, I first saw 'high end' cars with GPS/maps built in to dash. not even a few years later, you could buy much fancier ones, that would update, and were faster, and had more features. The 1998 'luxury' in-built GPS felt way out of date by 2002 (UI, responsiveness/speed, display, etc). The rest of the car didn't feel as dated, just the "high tech" bits.

I will say that CarPlay is a pretty big difference for me (when I had a loaner that had it I seriously was considering if I should sell my car)…

CarPlay (don't know about Google's system) is a huge upgrade over car manufacturers' systems. Still wouldn't cause me to sell my 10 yo vehicle with <70K miles though.

I wouldn’t buy a modern vehicle without CarPlay. It’s simply that good, and I’m pretty Apple critical these days.

I still like vintage junkers that are easy to work on, but there’s about two decades of nope for me now.

You can get an aftermarket head unit with CarPlay and keep your car! I have no idea why this wasn’t better publicized.

That, I believe, is a function of one material: PLASTIC.

There's just something about plastic that feels cheap and replaceable even when used in a "high end" product. There are toasters from the 50s made in stainless steel that are timeless. Contrast that with the plastic enclosed toasters of the last few decades and it's just no contest.

The plastic definitely makes modern cars feel dated quickly, but the tech alone ages really fast. Even simple back up cameras that are 3 years old seem really low definition compared to the new birds eye surround cameras. Not to mention the UIs are laggy, and Bluetooth even feels like old tech now. If it doesn’t have CarPlay or equivalent it’s a downgrade.

That would fit really well with their brand and current smartphone business. I wonder what they will do about the issue of people leaving the car dirty.

Havent you basically just described a lease with no down payment and a flexible cancellation policy?

sounds amazing and i really want what you’re describing

i dont want to buy a new car (new as in replacing my current car,im ok with used cars) because theyre overpriced, but i dont want to lease either due to what i consider bullshit costs, plus lock-in. as a result, ive had the same car since 2009, despite easily being able to afford something new. but fuck that, id rather put that money towards investing

You can't co-lease with a flexible number of other users based on utilization.

You sort of can. Isn’t belonging to a car share essentially that? The car share leases more or fewer vehicles depending on demand.

Yes. It's just not called a lease. I belonged to one of those for a time. Form some, it's just right.

With a bunch of Apple integrations, and you don’t need to park or pick up, available in any major city in the world with a click, sure.

Prototype and expensive motorcycles are self-balancing now.

etc

The tech always seems to come.

All motorcycles are self balancing.

Up to a point.

Try letting off the throttle on a sport bike in a turn and see how well it works.

Please don't actually do this.

Even so, they’re still dangerous. No one in car crazy America is going to put their kids on an Apple motorcycle and run through rush hour traffic where everyone is watching TikTok videos while driving. Even the wind noise, debris hitting you, and weather considerations alone make it a no-go. Losing a wheel usually means going down. 99% of people strongly value that they will walk away from a crash fine with great probabilities. That simply cannot be said of 2 wheeled vehicles like it can be said of crumple zone air bag equipped 4 wheeled vehicles.

I’d definitely get one though.

Unless the cars carrying the TikTokers are Volvo or Apple cars monitoring the driver, or driving itself.

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