I think they would easily get a 40B valuation on an IPO.
People know that ARM is used in all smartphones and after Apples M1 and the growing usage in Servers many believe that ARM is the future.
Also - with an IPO, customers of ARM like Apple could easily buy shares of ARM...
Probably the reason why Apple didn't bought ARM is because they know they wouldn't get through the competition authorities.
But with an IPO, Apple and other customers could buy something like 9 percent of ARM...