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Comment by f430 | Hacker News Reader

look Tesla's battery factory in China is in complete shambles. Porsche, hyundai, samsung, apple (hyundai collab), honda, toyota, vw, mercedes, audi are ALL after Tesla's pie and now the automotive cartel are going to push out Tesla.

I'm sorry this rustles the jimmies of Tesla shareholders and Elon Musk's fanboys. I got nothing against him but no early mover in automotive industry have ever survived in the long run: Ford, GM.

You know which company bet the farm on the continued generosity of low interest rates and government grants? Porsche in the 1970s. They eventually suffered a huge setback when the capital markets dried up.

Tesla has had a good run but you can't downvote away reality, SWOT analysis, and the fact that they have never made a profit on the cars they sold if you discounted tax credit and loan relief.

Jim Chanos is always right but not always profitable.

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I don't know that I'd go so far as to say Tesla is screwed, but certainly massively over valued. I am baffled at how valuations seem to think all other manufacturers are just going to shrink away without any fight. I agree with the increasingly zealous misuse of downvoting; I had an account on another device which had every single comment downvoted; presumably I said something someone didn't like, but with no associated comment who knows.

I invite you to take a look at the post-IPhone world and how all other phone makers vanished up to that point.

Anyway, I do contemplate this particular shift in cars because of Tesla’s valuation. Why would Mazda keep existing if Tesla and Apple just out school them? There’s going to be some dead companies for sure. Where is Mazda on future tech?

I actually like the Mazda MX-30 EV prototype. But with a range of only 130 miles, it's a non-starter. It's interesting times for sure. I'm curious how the landscape will look like 10 years from now.

https://www.mazda.com/en/new-generation/mx-30/

> Why would Mazda keep existing if Tesla and Apple just out school them? There’s going to be some dead companies for sure. Where is Mazda on future tech?

Mazda's CX5 handily outsells Tesla's Model Y.

I think the thing that a lot of people don't understand about Tesla, is that most people can't afford to spend $60,000 on a car. The Mazda CX5 has a MSRP of $25,270.

There's tons of people who buy things based on price, and battery prices aren't getting any cheaper.

On top of this, the CX5 competes in a segment where there's at least fifteen competitors, whereas the Model Y is (mostly) competing with the Jaguar I-Pace and Audi E-Tron.

> battery prices aren't getting any cheaper

I thought they were getting dramatically cheaper every year?

The flagging is getting ridiculous now. As soon as you say something that the OGs dont agree with you get flagged and censored.

It's bizarre. How can people be this narrow minded on HN? Maybe they are not hungry anymore, they cashed in their stock options or made their acquisition and think they are infallible.

Look I love my Ferrari, its never going to lose value, its gone up since I bought it two years ago because as EVs become more popular, people are always going to value analogue.

There's a reason the manual version of the same F430 has a 100,000 USD premium. As EVs become no longer just Tesla, ICE cars are going to be even more sought after.

Tesla's electric cars are boring and Porsche's rendition is what the future holds. You can't compete with software alone, other manufacturers have largely caught up now.

As soon as you say something that the OGs dont agree with you get flagged and censored.

What you say is true, people often downvote things they don't agree with.

However, I think you're also getting downvoted because you're using words like "fanboys" and "screwed". People on HN tend to react very negatively to inflamatory language.

“In the short run, the market is a voting machine but in the long run, it is a weighing machine.”

It remains to be seen whether Tesla will be able to leverage their access to cheap capital in a way that will allow them to corner the market on batteries. I think that's what this will all boil down to.

A lot of Apple's success with iPhones happened because they were able to dominate the market for the latest and greatest components, locking out competitors by simply buying up every scrap of cutting edge parts. If Tesla is able to leverage their capital and lock everyone else out of batteries, they might strangle the competition in a similar fashion. On the other hand, if Toyota or some other competitor can develop some game-changer battery technology and lock Tesla out, they could fold just as easily.

Man straight out of TSLAQ fanfic. Auto cartel has been gunning for Tesla for 10+ years now without landing any hits.

I doubt Tesla keeps it's margins or perhaps even valuation, but no one has a viable alternative that's not vapor.

> no one has a viable alternative that's not vapor.

you underestimate the manufacturing capabilities of automtotive giants with far longer history at mass scale production of cars.

look theres' nothing special about electric cars. they are mostly just battery + chasis + motor. It's just not 2016 anymore, they've all been quietly acquiring the know how and waiting for the battery before making their end game chess move.

Let's keep the personal attacks to a minimum please. I can't even have a conversation on HN anymore without getting flagged by people who can't handle criticisms or fear their narrative coming under attack.

I get it. You bought Tesla stock, you made money, you are smart and everybody who drives ICE car are dumb. However, that still has nothing to do with how Tesla has never made a profit on its cars. Jim Chano is NOT wrong on this and lots of people overlook at this simple accounting trickery.

Disclaimer I own no TSLA, nor have I even purchased any shares, options or other derivatives as of this date aside from potentially 401k mutual funds (kinda wish this wasn't the case).

That said, I simply don't think things have changed in the past 10 years such that an "automotive giant" is ready to out-tech Tesla. I do think Apple may be able to do it but I wonder what their motive would be in doing so, as margins are much lower in auto than computing.

I did not intend my response as a personal attack; your reasoning (and verbiage) just seemed derivative, that's all.

> I do think Apple may be able to do it but I wonder what their motive would be in doing so, as margins are much lower in auto than computing.

I share the same sentiment. From my own observations, Apple might have a better shot than the incumbents.

So, I think it’s important to not overlook the fact that we are here today talking about EVs because Tesla was a leader in this space.

No other car company took this initiative with their decades of experience. I believe the the current crop of auto makers would have pushed for more fuel efficient ICE cars in the new green era.

Toyota is not even revamping their Prius in any capacity to stay with the trends. I need to see this ‘flip the switch when we need to’ behavior to believe they truly can snap their fingers and flip the switch.

The bet is they can’t.

>you underestimate the manufacturing capabilities of automtotive giants with far longer history at mass scale production of cars.

I've been hearing this since 2010. It's now 2021.

"Most experienced automakers race to put a car together in three years," said Angus MacKenzie, editor of Motor Trend magazine. "I can't see Tesla making more than a handful of these -- if any -- in 2012."

Source: https://money.cnn.com/2010/06/29/technology/tesla_ipo/index....

>look theres' nothing special about electric cars. they are mostly just battery + chasis + motor. It's just not 2016 anymore, they've all been quietly acquiring the know how and waiting for the battery before making their end game chess move.

"Faulty software set back a bid by the world’s largest car maker for electric-vehicle dominance"

Source: https://www.wsj.com/articles/how-volkswagens-50-billion-plan...

The inherent nature of EVs require a ton of software development. Which is incredibly hard to nail and requires top talent. This is a monumental task for the auto incumbents. The only way to solve it is to start from scratch. Without the risk of alienating their OEM suppliers and system integrators.

> Let's keep the personal attacks to a minimum please. I can't even have a conversation on HN anymore without getting flagged by people who can't handle criticisms or fear their narrative coming under attack.

Maybe you should step back and reflect on the reason(s) why you're getting flagged.

> Jim Chano [sic] is NOT wrong on this and lots of people overlook at this simple accounting trickery.

So far, people like Jim Chanos and David Einhorn hemorrhaged money to the tune of $40B if you're not aware. Chanos also have (just very recently) closed his short position and converted them into PUT options.

Sources:

[1] https://www.wraltechwire.com/2021/01/06/tesla-short-sellers-...

[2] https://www.cnbc.com/2021/01/20/jim-chanos-is-no-longer-shor...

yeah but just because he lost money doesn't mean that he is wrong. You can be right and still lose money in the markets in the short run

> yeah but just because he lost money doesn't mean that he is wrong.

He's been wrong for 12 years (since Tesla IPO'd in 2010). What more conviction do you need?

It's fair to criticize Tesla's valuation, but they have recently become profitable, even excluding emissions credit sales.

The problem most other manufacturers have is that EV sales undercut their ICE sales, and also undercut their customer's most profitable segment, vehicle repair/service. It's going to be hard for them to transition from ICE to EV.

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