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How straightforward is it to swap out the 2MB flash for something larger, say 16MB flash?

On the Pico itself? Unsure. But Arduino is already set to release a Nano version with the RP2040 and 16 MB of flash [1], so it's probably not crazy hard :)

[1] https://blog.arduino.cc/2021/01/20/welcome-raspberry-pi-to-t...

I've just ordered two picos. Hopefully they still have some in stock as they're flying off the shelves !

Woo hoo, they arrived today!

There's a datasheet that covers it.

https://datasheets.raspberrypi.org/rp2040/hardware_design_wi...

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