I do not believe that Apple will stop users from installing software they didn’t get from the App Store. There is just too much legacy software out there and it is doubtful whether Adobe and Microsoft (both crucial for the continued success of the Mac) will ever move to the App Store, even if pressured.
The Mac App Store is inherently more secure (or is the right word ‘safer’?)†, that’s where Apple wants people to get their software.
†I do not argue that there will never be malware in the Mac App Store.
Apple is very good about ignoring legacy software. 6 years ago 100% of Mac software was built for PowerPC, and as of Lion none of that software will run. I can easily see them prohibiting non-store apps once developers have had a few years to make the transition.
it is doubtful whether Adobe and Microsoft (both crucial for the continued success of the Mac) will ever move to the App Store, even if pressured.
Why wouldn't they? Apple would certainly be willing to give them a break on the 30% fee if needed.