Gaming the system: How GameStop stock surged
arstechnica.com
arstechnica.com
1. Short sellers have been running the stock into the ground over the past years and have been stupid enough to get to roughly 130% short interest as percentage of available float.
2. There are no more shares available for them to borrow and sell short, WSB has jumped into this trade following Ryan Cohen (your dog must know him), buying as many shares as possible, decreasing the float even further and pushing the price up.
3. Ryan Cohen owns about 13% of the company. He founded chewy.com and is an e-commerce wizard who wants to turn GameStop around from a brick-and-mortar shop to a digital / e-commerce player. He joined the board last week together with two other former Chewy execs (COO and CMO). FYI GameStop digital sales are 300% yoy and the company has recently posted a profit for the first time in many quarters. Shorts pretend like Chewy never happened, Ryan has nothing to do with GameStop and digital sales are nonexistent.
4. This short squeeze is inevitable. There are no other moves short sellers can do. They are trapped and check-mate is near. It will be similar to VW in 2008 and more aggressive than Overstock last year.
Its funny, I went through all the bear arguments at first, but as I kept reading and digging in deeper, the bull thesis became apparant. RC signing on really sealed the deal for me and $GME is now my largest position.
The interest rate to borrow GME shares has little to do with the Fed rates. It actually hit 45% last week as there are almost no more GME shares available to borrow.
Shorts are bleeding about 2% every day just on interest and have little road left to run.
Also, for this to stop the short squeeze the company would need to issue 30% of their float and then the shorts would still need to find another 100% of float to cover fully. The shorting emperors are left without clothes any way you cut it.
I wonder if most of the WSB people actually time this right and find an exit on the peak, because that is the implicit goal if you bet on an infinity short squeeze.
Short squeezes act like a much needed flush.
Why is that bad? Big console games started to need to be really long, because if you could finish them in a week you would lose a ton of sales to retail. That's why you started to see games where you had to wander around, grind, play through a level backwards, chase achievements. It also caused an emphasis on in game purchases (in console games) and online play. It just got a lot harder to make a short single player game on console.
A lot of those problems go away as console games are sold in a digital store.
FFVII is still one of my all time favorites and is a good example of that. I think the first real fast game I played through was Metal Gear Solid. I'd rent, then buy if I liked it back then, and I played through all of Metal Gear Solid in something like 2 or 3 days. It was the first game I enjoyed that I did not buy, because I beat it while renting it.
The NES games I remember could generally be beaten in no more than an hour, if you knew how to actually do it without dying 1000 times.
A good warpless speedrun time on Super Mario Brothers is about 19 minutes.
If warps are allowed, it's under 5.
Legend of Zelda? 27 minutes
Ninja Gaiden? 12 minutes
I think all the games I had were 60+ hours, but I just liked JRPGs more than most genres.
FFVIII was picked not only because it was one of my favorites (FF1 too, SMB3, ...), because the remake today has turned it into 3 games, and even then those 3 games seem long by today's standards.
The NES didn't have any way of saving, for instance.
The two have about much in common as a PSX and an Xbox1.
Most of them had codes you'd type in that was a save point. Many had actual save states on the cartridge.
The earlier games got around not having a code by having a secret early on the game that was revealed later on in the game so you could skip all of the parts you previously played.
Basically just an encoding of "start at level X with Y lives". Maybe not even lives.
There were only 54 NES releases with actual, battery based saves, out of 716 officially released and licensed titles (and heaven knows how many bootlegs).
So, "most" is an overbid.
FWIW, the SNES also had no storage, and saves were in the carts. Not until the N64 did Nintendo ship a device with fungible, non-cart storage.
Interestingly, based on the Wikipedia page¹, the historical difficulty of the Nintendo games is quite nuanced.
I have the opposite experience - I feel buried in 60+ hour games I want to play and feel like games could be shorter.
If you look at today's RPGs, they're still _really long_. It is expected that most players who play Persona 5 Royal will take over 100 hours to complete it, which is pretty wild considering it's not a 'grinding game'--players aren't taking that long because they're fighting the same enemies repeatedly hoping for a rare item to appear. There really is 100 hours' worth of contents.
Meanwhile a multiplayer game - whether it be a MMORPG or a FPS, would net you countless hours of entertainment.
So last century? Big single player 16 bit games were $80usd (e.g. Phantasy Star II) and $59.99 was not unusual for run of the mill licensed or sports games.
https://i.redd.it/ikerxbqipf821.jpg
It's amazing that 59.99 survived as a standard price for games as long as it did.
Not always. Consider that there are now so many the pool of potential co-players is spread among many. And servers don't stay up forever. As a patient gamer I usually miss the first wave. Then you're at a big disadvantage in skill or level.
And frankly there are so many jerks online that I prefer single player even if it means moving on to other games more often.
Early NES games were modeled (or ported) after arcades, which incentivized you to put in a quarter, play a handful of minutes, then put in a quarter to continue. This didn't translated well at home. So game designs moved away from that format.
When movie rental places started offering games (late NES early SNES days) they started making games take longer than a rental period to beat (2-3 days). One well known example is the monkey puzzle in the Lion King game [1]. I distinctly remember renting NES games and beating them in a few days before returning them. Specifically, one of the later Mega Man games. Granted, I owned other Mega Man games so I was familiar with the format. I still would have loved to play that game over and over, but I only rarely was able to buy games.
[1] https://www.thegamer.com/lion-king-remaster-monkey-level-con...
The ability to resell books didn’t lead to only works the size of war and peace being sold...
Perhaps the game's price should reflect the cost of production, or they should limit the cost of production to what's sustainable by sales.
While we're here though, actually, yes, car manufacturers would love it if people would stop buying used cars. In fact, there were whole lawsuits in the past about planned obsolescence, and dealers today often run promotions to get you to turn in your used "clunker" and buy a new ride.
Oh btw, the next time you read a non-fiction book with a thesis that grabs your attention, but that could probably fit into a long essay.. there is probably a book editor that said it had to be X number of pages because there isn't a business in selling pamphlets.
Movie theaters are dying and it seems like they may be replaced by streaming services like Netflix. The truth is, for all streamers pay they probably won't end up paying as much as theaters. And it is not clear any of them currently make money. What if the model that really makes money is YouTube, and a lot of classic expensive movies are going to be replaced with mediocre user generated content that is extremely profitable to stream? That may sound crazy, but think what happened to radio?
I am not seriously arguing that I know what will happen, but you just have to understand that when there is a good buisiness for high quality, you tend to get quality.
I feel like your average $200M movie could be made for $100M and not be harmed all that much.
> What if the model that really makes money is YouTube, and a lot of classic expensive movies are going to be replaced with mediocre user generated content that is extremely profitable to stream?
Then tons of money will flow into creating youtube content, and competition will provide a bounty of high quality content.
> That may sound crazy, but think what happened to radio?
This is a good example of how things shouldn't be mediocre. TV shows aren't lower quality than radio shows, once they got some momentum going.
I'm more willing to pay $X for a game if I know I can probably sell it for $Y when I don't want it anymore. Digital store games don't have the same value for me, I can't sell the games later, and depending on the system, might have a big hassle transferring them to a different system if/when the one I have goes south.
Book publishers (and authors) don't get anything when I buy from a used bookstore, or borrow a book from a friend either. Neither does a cookware manufacturer get anything if I buy used pots and pans from a thrift shop.
Books cost tens of thousands of dollars to make and games cost tens of millions. There would be no video game business like the one we know if they were sold the same way as books. Think about it a second-- your PlayStation game is sold on a piece of media that is proprietary. Are your books sold on proprietary paper made specially difficult to copy?
This past year, I bought Animal Crossing for the Switch; even though I was pretty sure I wouldn't like it. As expected, I didn't like it, but I had a friend who wanted it, and I could mail it to them. That's a "lost sale" in video game accounting; but if it was tied to my switch, I would have never bought it, and my friend wasn't planning to buy it, but is thrilled to have it.
A book doesn't need to be intentionally made difficult to copy, because in its natural form, it's a lot of effort to copy. There's not enough money to be saved by copying a book to make it worthwhile, except for maybe textbooks.
Arcade manufacturers don't get a cut of the quarters put into a machine either (well, maybe they do for some of the games that now need an online connection to run).
And I feel 0 empathy for you. With the digital platform you are stripping away ownership rights from the purchaser. From your statement I feel that you're whining about missing sales that you never could have actually had. Do the 7-9 extra sales translate to 7-9x more sales on digital platforms? No.
The digital platform is about locking the user in no matter what. No chargebacks, no ownership, etc. Do a charge back Sony bans your console and locks you out of the games you "purchased". End of.
And yea chargebacks aren’t a mechanism for getting a refund. They are essentially a fraud accusation. Try doing a chargeback with amazon on a large purchase and see how long your account stays in good standing.
The only time Sony gives money back is when their reputation is majorly hurt. Amazon from my experience doesn't tend to let it get this far. (Although they are terrible in their own right)
That's the problem; when there's a legitimate cause for chargeback you still can't do one, because the big platform is going to retaliate.
It's fine being blacklisted from that tiny fraudulent company. It's anti-consumer when a legitimate chargeback can't be filed because some giant company processed the credit card and will bring their wrath upon you.
If we take the case of a game that is resold a few times on average (not even 7+ times), users are waiving ownership on their own will - they're effectively renting.
In these specific conditions, a hypothetical (digital) game rental would actually serve best both the producer and the consumers.
Note that I don't make a general statement, but I'm referring to this specific case. I'm also not familiar with game rental, but at least until a few years ago, I've seen a physical shop offering it.
In this specific case I think it's completely wrong to say that people who sell back physical copies are effectively renters.
Used to make good money on Prodigy. Then my dad switched us to AOL. It was too competitive for me; I went back to waiting for birthdays and Christmas.
Given the growing backlog of unplayed games people have on Steam these days I’m not sure which one is the answer.
Software has a marginal cost of zero. In a supply and demand world we add arbitrary restrictions (copyright) to constrain supply to incentivize the creation of new supply.
Be careful what you wish for. You just might get it.
Also, GameStop would sell a used disc for $55 while a new disc was $60. Because they get 100% of $55. Then their associates HEAVILY pushed used on gamers who don’t give a shit and just want to save 5 bucks.
Sony has been making big story heavy games. There’s nothing wrong with a $60 narrative experience that lasts 20 to 30 hours. The Last of Us 2 is exactly that. Some gamers will buy that game on Tuesday and finish by Friday. Should GameStop sell that disc for $55 and collect all the proceeds when the game hasn’t been out for a week? Avoiding the used sale is why devs tack-on all kinds of bullshit the game doesn’t really need.
Fuck GameStop. Garbage company that has caused more harm to gamers than people will ever know.
> Also, GameStop would sell a used disc for $55 while a new disc was $60. Because they get 100% of $55. Then their associates HEAVILY pushed used on gamers who don’t give a shit and just want to save 5 bucks.
Where's the harm? Their ability to sell it for $55 is capped at the total stock they have. Dev companies can print near unlimited amounts of copies for a low price.
If Sony prints and distributed TLOU2 for $5 and sells it at GameStop for $60 they make like $40 give or take. If someone plays that 30 hour masterpiece in two days they can sell it back to GameStop for like $20. GameStop can resell it for $55 and pocket every penny. GameStop has now made more money in launch week than the developer. GameStop is incentivized with every fiber of their existence to be a middleman than squeezes every dollar of profit. Game developers respond with digital, micro transactions, tack-on half-assed multiplayer, etc.
GameStop is a middle-man that seeks to prevent as many dollars as possible from going to the actual content creators.
Sony can print an infinite number of TLOU2 copies for almost nothing. They could let you download the game for less than a nickel. Obviously you can not make a game like TLOU2 if you only charge a nickel to play it.
I would have zero issues with GameStop if they limited sales of used games to games that are 1 year old. Hell I might even be fine with six months! But selling used discs less than a week from launch is despicable and I wish them nothing but pain and suffering.
GameStops entire business is predicated on being a middle man that adds zero value but extracts value for “used” sales of relatively new games. Fuck em.
I used to make games so I am extremely biased. But IMHO I am not wrong!
Game dev company makes a sale.
> GameStop for like $20. GameStop can resell it for $55 and pocket every penny.
Gamestop and previous customer engage in a private transaction. Gamestop accepts that the game may not sell at $55
Gamestop now lists it in their supply in _used_ condition and certifies it's playablity.
> Game developers respond with digital, micro transactions, tack-on half-assed multiplayer, etc.
That has nothing to do with the Gamestop's business decisions after they sold the new copy. The studio is trying to milk it for more money post sale. (Also don't forget season passes/online fees etc)
> GameStop is a middle-man that seeks to prevent as many dollars as possible from going to the actual content creators.
They performed that original sell. I'm not sure how this is preventing content creators from making money.
> Sony can print an infinite number of TLOU2 copies for almost nothing. They could let you download the game for less than a nickel. Obviously you can not make a game like TLOU2 if you only charge a nickel to play it.
But they don't. They'll still charge you $60 (same as in store pricing) for the online download. (Even though it's less valuable and more risky about how they feel about you that day)
I still don't understand your point here. Once the content producer/retailer makes a sale.. _you_ _do_ _not_ _own_ _that_ _copy_ _any_ _more_. That's the entire sales transaction. You can't dictate a private transaction after the fact.
Here’s a slightly amended story:
* Player A pre-orders TLOU2 for $60 from Amazon * Player A beats game, sells to GameStop for $20. * Player B buys “used” disc for $55 * $95 net player dollars have now been split $40 dev / $20 Amazon / $35 GameStop * Bonus! Player B sells game back to GameStop for $20. Who sells it to player C for $55. Repeat a few more times if you like.
You are probably happy with the story. I am not. I want content creators to be rewarded. You want middle men to extract value.
I know what first sale doctrine is and how it works. Thanks for the claps.
> That has nothing to do with the Gamestop's business decisions after they sold the new copy. The studio is trying to milk it for more money post sale.
If you would like to argue that game developers do not alter their business model in the face of used sales go ahead. Anyone who sat in meeting centered on “how can we prevent gamers from selling the disc back to GameStop in the first six months” will laugh at how wrong you are.
The good news for you is that the rise of digital distribution made the debate around used sales moot. Used sales don’t matter and GameStop’s old business model is dead. I hope they fail to pivot and their whole business goes with it.
Let’s consider digital sales. Many people would like “used” sales of digital goods. (Is it really used if you make a new copy from the same, or possibly different, source bits?)
Imagine if digital licenses could be transferred instantly, for free, and infinitely. In such a world there would be a new middleman. Let’s call it WoodStop.
In this world WoodStop would offer a launcher. When you want to play a game it would acquire a license and launch the game. When you stop playing it releases the license. In this world the total number of licenses that EVER need to be sold is the peak concurrent user number. After launch week no new copies of the game ever need to be sold! In fact most games could probably sell 10% of their launch week sales and no player would ever have to wait to launch their game.
This system obviously does not work. Not with the initial licenses being sold for $60 at least.
Digital goods are _weird_. They cost upwards of $100,000,000 to create but cost less than a penny to download. And yet everyone on this HackerNews website earns a very good living producing work that can be infinitely reproduced for effectively free.
> Imagine if digital licenses could be transferred instantly, for free, and infinitely.
Sure, instant rental would break some things. But this isn't very far from the Netflix (DVD) or library model. If libraries stocked up on video game discs, would you be upset by that? Is everything fine if you have to wait two days between transfers of a copy?
eBay has plenty of games if you want them. But as a percentage of the industry it’s not a big deal. GameStop is unique in that it was one of the top sellers of games AND their business was predicated on selling recent games as used. The incentives are perverse.
Honestly I think digital solves pricing relatively well. Everyone knows a brand new $60 game will be $30 in a few months and $20 in a year. Anyone can buy in at the price they deem appropriate. For PC if there’s a DRM-free version either at launch or after a year there’s no major concern about a game disappearing from the world.
There’s a lot of ways you can drawn the line. But they’re all arbitrary and based on what you want to min/max rather than natural or obvious laws.
Digital is weird because we make copies every time we install! Even game discs make a full copy on HDD. Afterwards the only thing a disc does is provide DRM. The game is fully installed and played from a copy on the HDD! (Because reading data from a DVD is slow as shit). And modern games have so many patches the content on a disc is worthless. The disc literally provides no value except DRM.
FWIW I would also change copyright law such that it doesn’t last 50+ years. More content should become public domain far faster. You can dig into my comment history for some recent discussion about that.
I’d like to think I’m pro-consumer and pro-creator. There is a tension there. Tricky balance. But I’m anti-middle men. Especially those who have a moat and use it to extract value while providing little to nothing in return.
If Company A makes a product people are willing to pay for; and company B makes multiple sales/profit off of it, it does trigger some kind of empathy/moral/something spidey-sense in me.
We are not talking about piracy where we use argument "that 12 years old wouldn't have paid for your game anyway". These customers DID pay for the game! Just not to the developer; that money did not support development of new fun content.
Not to say I disagree with the notion of digital platform stripping away ownership; but I think that specific wrong doesn't make the other situation right :-/
> new fun content
I would only say that's neccessary if they No man skyed it. (Screwed up the release)
My statement was specific - I feel empathy for the developer. One can feel empathy toward multiple parties, even in situations of conflict or disagreement (I'm kind of with Ender on this one :-). This was in particular a response to the commenter that "felt 0 empathy toward developer" - which I found curious and perhaps unfortunate.
When a game costs $50 and I can't get any of that money back when I've finished playing the game I need to think really carefully before buying it. If I know I can get some money back by selling the game it makes it easier for me to buy it.
> I don't because I see the purchase of a movie ticket as the right to see a movie once.
So, Netflix should only allow one person to watch the screen at a time, and everyone in the room watching the tv show needs to purchase an account, or maybe a pay-per-view watch?
Digital games have their own benefits — sales. If games can be resold, one person may buy a game and then sell it to another person. With non resealable games, both of the people in the above example would buy the game later in a sale. Sales are one of the best uses of price discrimination; practically everyone gets to play a game eventually if they want to, but those who especially want to can pay more.
> So, Netflix should only allow one person to watch the screen at a time, and everyone in the room watching the tv show needs to purchase an account, or maybe a pay-per-view watch?
I don’t see how my statement implies this. Single use tickets and subscriptions services are different things.
- should you be able to resell a book?
- resell a CD?
- board game
- lego
- badminton racket
_ad nauseum_. the idea of a movie ticket, is that it provides a closed-in-time temporal experience. The movie screens at those given times in a theatre and then never there again (be it months or whatever post-release). A video game is an experience made whenever wherever a person wants.
I counter this with the reality that it is working and has worked for decades. As measured by numerous thriving game developers and publishers.
I don’t even think it’s revenue maximizing for game devs to not allow transfers as I suspect that being able to transfer games to friends increases overall sales due to word of mouth, press, etc. Like how shareware increased net sales.
Used games stores have been a thing much before it became a problem (I remember selling games at EB Games). But because of Gamestop's growth and their aggressive pursuit of making sure their customers only dabble in the used games section, it became a serious issue.
The 7-9 resales by Gamestop might not translate to 7-9x extra sales, but I would bet it is at least 2x. I know a lot of people that stopped buying their games new, but wouldn't buy them used unless they were from Gamestop (so basically no grey market, e.g. ebay or craigslist), because it was more convenient. In some cities, Gamestop had some many stores, that they had to compete between themselves.
If you don't want people to resell your game, then make a shittier game. Or something. I'm not really sure what it is you're actually complaining about.
Why is that bad? Writers need to make money on every single sale. If they can't, books will have to get longer and longer, to make it harder to finish reading them during a library checkout interval.
A lot of those problems go away if you just buy everything you're going to read directly from the kindle store.
In an environment where selling is not possible gamers lock their available dollars up with the top tier of expensive AAA games and there's less sales opportunity for the rest of the market.
Instead it's probably closer to a price bump for the people who did sell their games, as they can no longer do so.
We didn't have gamespot in the SNES or NES era when I was a kid. My parents didn't have much extra money, nor did any of my friends parents and new games were absurdly expensive. In the life of my SNES my parents only purchase three games new, all JRPGs. Of my friends, most probably purchased less than that new. However, we'd be at one of the local second hand stores, swap meets, or pawn shops all the time to buy or sell games. We'd borrow and trade for each other's games. We played so many games without buying anything new.
If anything I think gamestop actually decreased used game sales because they made used games more expensive, and new games are cheaper today (adjusted for inflation) and games in general are much higher quality and easier to vet if you'd like them before playing.
Yeah, fuck selling products to customers, you've got a bunch of consumer data you can monetize.
I mean, the quote is accurate. GameStop is a middleman in a market where it is completely trivial for producers to sell directly to consumers. That's not a good position to be in, and there's absolutely nothing stopping anyone in the world -- even you! -- from setting up as a competitor and doing a fundamentally just-as-good job. Their business selling products to customers is thoroughly obsolete; it relies on the customers having computers (to run the games) but no internet access (to buy the games).
So it isn't surprising that their business selling products to customers isn't really considered an asset of theirs, and that strategy discussions look for something they can do better than a random guy on the street.
Throwing all that away because you have email addresses for a bunch of known gamers and will therefore... do... Internet... something... seems like a losing proposition.
Except Amazon, and Microsoft, and Nintendo, and Sony, and Vale, and Epic, and ...
What am I missing? What's interesting about their purchaser data?
vs. Valve/Epic - similar, AFAIK these are PC-only stores, so again wouldn't be able to determine if customers also have a console (or several) that they play games on.
vs. general retailers e.g. Amazon - more specialised to people buying games; with nothing to back this up, I'd guess that people buying games on e.g. Amazon are more likely to be buying as a gift vs people buying in a dedicated game store (and particularly being registered in a loyalty programme at a game store). (Not saying that most people buying games on Amazon are giving them as gifts, just probably a higher proportion than in gamestop). In cases like that, it's probably less beneficial to target an ad for a game at that person, as they were probably just buying what they were asked for etc.
This is almost certainly the last generation of Sony and Microsoft consoles to support physical media. Even Nintendo has been pushing hard into digital distribution with the Switch.
Couple that with the ongoing death of malls and increasing popularity of PC and mobile gaming platforms (which GS has practically no stake in), and the future looks very bleak for GameStop.
The announcement of his long position single-handedly caused the price to raise a non-trivial amount. IIRC his firm currently owns around 4% of GameStop.
Maybe I've been in Bitcoin for too long, but 2.5 to 44 is cause for this much attention? I guess I'm immune to that level of volatility these days.
I mean I get the amount of security's fraud and agencies like the SEC just waiting to justify their inflated salaries and budgets... but with the level of fraud in the stock market and banks this is likely what they would focus on as it they probably don't have massive lobbiysists in Washington paying for them to shape legislation to match their grift.
I've seen several Gamestops shut down and have going out of business sales for current inventory with long lines, I'm sure that would add to their liquidity situation in the short term if it was done at scale for recovering investments on outdated/old merchanidise. And given that people are less than prudent with their finances and stimulus checks/uncemployment and with so many people with nothing but time on their hands this growth due to lockdowns and massive unemployment isn't actually a realistic turn around after the initial crash in March?
Wallstreetbets is always good for a laugh, and not always a healthy one; the place reminds you why a guy like Trump could be elected and gives actual credence to how the following adage holds true: Repeat a lie often enough and it becomes the truth.
Those guys are like the epitome of of the 'grater fool' business model for the low hanging fruit on the Internet that after spending a few minutes there you just start to feel bad for what the state of Humanity is.
Tendies and cuck jokes aside, it's actually really telling what some people 'with money' are like when they're given a slight amount of Pseudonymity and are in great enough numbers.
Kind of makes Jordan Belfort's stories (Wolf of Wallstreet) all the more poignant.
My point being that this doesn't warrant the attention its getting when you see the bigger picture of outright fraud, and agencies should look into bank fraud and money laundering and stock manipulation of things like large pharmaceutical corps that have made billions from a litany of scams along the years, Moderna administration in CA already had to be halted due to patient complications. How many Corps have made out like bandits from bailouts and crushing the competition with perpetual lock downs and doing shady trade deals with politicians?
I'm so over this, that the paper wealth pales in comparison to the asset inflation we're all seeing with no real benefit other than more billionaire wealth accumulation.
PS: I don't trade, I'm accumulating in order to exit this insane system.
That wasn't a humble brag, it was a counter to your less than charitable characterization of GME stock behavior.
If anything, you're bragging.
You appear to be bragging hard. Whether or not you intended that. The other person isn’t.
> You appear to be bragging hard.
I'm saying their are far more corrupt things that are being sanctioned (ignored) by the regulators in the stock/securities market but you people hyper focus on the low hanging fruit (gamestop) while the public purse/currency is being fleeced by Trillions by corporations with every bailout/stimulus package and you think you're smarter than everyone else and I'm the one bragging? Despite your 'profit' being denominated in ever worthless fiat.
In the time that I wrote that Black Rock, the creators of the fucking Aladdin prediction computer/system that likely kicked this entire surveillance/data mining business model into high gear, got into Bitcoin and declared their intentions to create a futures model to the SEC.
I guess I excepted more from tech people by this time when it comes to what Bitcoin really is, but then the adage of Humans (fools) and their folly holds true, I suppose.
Who thinks they’re smarter than everyone else? Am I “they”? I don’t understand this. Writing things like “your ‘profit’” is condescending by the way.
I can’t change the world. I’m not a rich man. The couple of grand I’ve made this week from GameStop and Blackberry has been nice for me personally.
Options contracts are SUPER market inefficient, in that their pricing is tied to dollar moves stacking onto the "intrinsic value" part of their multivariable calculus formula no matter what percentage difference that really means, and do not take volume of the underlying asset into affect at all, even though that matters more to options traders than the purpose of the options contract itself: to accumulate shares.
It's a meme stock, and a huuuuuuge amount of money is being dumped into it for... basically entertainment value. Roulette.
Anyone who would put enough portfolio weight on a single stock, whether Tesla or Gamestop or whatever, that mere 10x price appreciation would amount to something significant is failing to diversify and carrying huge huge single name risk.
There’s nothing to see here. Put money in a broad basket of stocks and go do something else.
Gamestop is a good example of this, as was Tesla at multiple points in its history. As was put options on major stock indexes in early February of 2020. And so on.
It's very comforting to assess market events as truly random and any success as luck. It's possible to come up with definitions that lead to this conclusion. Personally, I'm fairly certain that this is wrong. But the distinctions are practically by definition so subtle that they seem random to anything but detailed, correctly-informed scrutiny.
I'm not saying that you could build a long-term successful career out of this, where you make likely-successful trades every day. But I do claim that you could fruitfully dedicate part of a long-term portfolio -- say 10% -- to make speculative bets on the very occasional situations where you happen to be positioned to see something that isn't yet obvious to others.
No, you very much can rule that out. It’s nothing more than “a broken clock is right twice a day.” Lots of people are making lottery like bets on specific stocks, with a just-so story about why they’ve correctly valued it. By random chance, some small subset actually pay off and people falsely mistake the just-so narrative for investor prowess or foresight.
Hertz was able to sell $29 million of stock during bankruptcy before the SEC asked them to stop. As Gamestop isn't bankrupt, it seems like fair game to make an offering while the price is high.
Can I be honest: its exactly this kind of BS that puts me off so much about the legacy Market systems; these systems create fake paper wealth that is intertwined with so many convoluted jargon, and twists and turns to give things the veneer of it being a Capitalist undertaking but all it really is central bank enabled gambling frenzy that requires bail outs when it all blows up.
How is this desirable, let alone sustainable, to those of you that I sincerely believe can see the obvious grift unfolding before your eyes for what it is?
If the price goes up to $80ish next week, then maybe issue some more shares to sell at that price too.
Welcome to the biggest casino in the world.
One of the stranger bull theses I've seen was that GameStop of the future will let you order the parts to build a custom gaming rig, they'll be delivered to the store, and experts will hold your hand while choosing parts and assembling them.