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Comment by chrismcb | Hacker News Reader

If we only vaccinated every one over 65 then we can basically go to normal, while the rest get vaccinated. That would prevent something like 80% of the deaths and hospitalizations. Some people would do get it but we would have more resources to handle it.

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Don't forget about the folks with comorbidities though. So much of society is obese so they are all at risk.

This is true, of course, but how fair is it to be able to eat your way to the front of the line?

They should do nursing homes and health workers first, then open it up to all. If they're afraid of crowds, divide up days by birth month, etc.

When >42% of Americans are obese, obesity cannot be viewed simply as a matter of personal responsibility. It is decidedly and firmly a public health and public policy issue, and as such arguments about fairness in vaccine distribution don’t hold much weight, in my view.

There was a time when > 42% of Americans smoked. Think about campaigns used to stop that.

https://i.ebayimg.com/images/g/nJAAAOSwOHpbaWwM/s-l500.jpg

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VA1QxJatWng

Why is this public health crisis different?

I think the idea that once a few at-risk populations get vaccinated we can “go back to normal” is pretty naive. You still get it mildly and can spread it once vaccinated. People outside at-risk groups who aren’t vaccinated yet can die. We don’t know how long the vaccine is good for—maybe we have to get it once a year like the flu, who knows? I’m a gambler and I’d bet we’ll be wearing masks for years, and possibly forever, depending on how the thing mutates and behaves.

My parents think they are gonna get jabbed then it’s off to happy hour, and that just seems incredibly simplistic.

Jesus man, I sure hope there aren’t many people like you who want to keep living like this forever.

Nobody wants to but I don’t think we know enough about this disease yet to declare it will definitely be over soon. I really hope it’s not a seasonal disease that needs a different vaccine every year!

How many micromorts do we need to be at for it to be acceptable? If you can't name a probability of death that is acceptable then your opinion is worthless (don't worry, lots of people seem to be in this camp). We accept risks for far dumber stuff every day. Maybe its 1 micromort or 100, but there must be some point at which making everyone wear a mask is more trouble than it is worth.

Because it's an infectious disease your model needs to account for spread. So that's what matters here, it's not that 1000 deaths per year is magically fine while 100 000 per year is not, it's that right now 1000 cases turns into 100 000 cases and deaths accordingly.

So assuming the vaccination programme is able to achieve herd immunity and maintain it either indefinitely or until the pandemic is over or border controls isolate that impact then you don't need to try to pick some number of micro-morts.

This is another reason elimination was obviously the correct strategy. Zero is special. If something doubles every day then no matter your start number you're screwed - unless it was zero in which case you're fine because zero doubled is... zero. Elimination allowed New Zealand to not need to estimate R numbers and weigh up whether to open bars or nurseries, universities or sports stadiums, because zero multiplied by anything is zero.

But if you can achieve herd immunity through vaccination you get to the same place by being assured of the multiplier instead, and that's a more practical option for countries like the US at this point.

Micromorts vary hugely based on pre-existing conditions (and, consequently, age)

It's also naive to think that, once a vaccination program has been in full swing for four or five months in the US (which is still only going to hit ~50% of the population unless it can be ramped to substantially above one million doses a day), when the warmer weather hits, most people aren't going to be going to the beach, restaurants, flying, etc.

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