U.S. jobless numbers surge as worsening Covid-19 pandemic hurts businesses
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I sometimes find it very _very_ hard to not see this all a transfer of wealth from the middle/lower classes to the upper classes - either calculated beforehand or just being taken advantage of now I don't think it matters.
We're jumping right into another Great Depression, although as a millennial, I would argue we should call it something more fitting and modern - maybe... "The Big Sad"?
SOMEONE has to pay for those stimulus checks and it appears right now it's turning into a loan that our great grandchildren will bear the responsibility of so that Bezos and Co can see an extra 0 at the end of their net worth.
So in language, when we say we need something, it’s a need for a particular and often presumptive / implied outcome.
In this case the purpose of the government is to provide for the general welfare of its citizens. The value of the US dollar depends on the “full faith and credit” of the United States actually meaning something. Therefore the government does need to show a willingness and ability to pay its debts.
The perceived future rate of inflation is a major variable in determining the interest rate that the US has to pay on its debt.
Also, the US government needs to control the level of inflation in order to have a functioning economy.
Given the widely accepted theory that printing arbitrarily large sums of money over time drives inflation, there are competing forces that act in the short and long term that would dictate the right amount of money to print now, or into the future.
Since the ultimate goal is to stabilize and grow the economy, the government does in fact need to not borrow until the currency collapses, and needs to be able to keep its debt to some reasonable multiple of GDP.
Really, I'm gonna post 'borrowing is fine' in reply to lots of messages that act like the US government is running a household budget.
If not, when will it end?
Jeff Bezos has personally donated to both political parties. Don't confuse his personal dislike of Trump with some sort of undying support of the Democratic party or their tax policies.
I don't have time or inclination to rehash it all so https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hack_of_Jeff_Bezos%27s_phone, but he owns WaPo and the hacking was probably retribution re Khashoggi. There was nothing done about it because "somebody" didn't like the WaPo editorial stance.
>just because he's wealthy it's not his job to fix the US financial system.
In other words, he should be lumped in with all the other billionaires that avoid taxes and aren't doing anything to uphold the social contract.
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If Bezos's and the other mega billionaires wanted to truly change the tax code for a top .0001% tax rate or whatever they could almost certainly get it done.
How much does Bezos spend on lobbying (not Amazon specific interests)? Virtually a 25 cents to him - .000086
Adelson spent something like $500mm over a decade and he probably has 75% or more of the 'credit' for changing pro-Isreal policy.
Bezos and the rest of them could put a few billion into treasuries and still not lose any basis just use the dividends politically.
In addition if they stopped following shareholder primacy Bezos could direct Amazon to repatriate profits continually and pay the tax. Stop relying on legal 'loopholes' to lower tax % and just pay in 'best faith' and stop pitting local governments against each other in a race to the bottom.
Hell they could even send a check to Treasury but spending only a billion $ lobbying for new laws would be more effective and longer term.
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Personally I'd like to see something like a sovereign wealth fund that benefits social security/healthcare and directly supports the bottom 40%. Look to Alaska as an example.
Each 'bailout' the taxpayers should get a % of shares for their investment, basically free money from the Fed which is supposed to make its money back anyways. Fannie/Freddit/TARP is an odd example something more like UAE, Norway but passive and only US companies
Go further and make it part of taxes for the mega corps only. 14% profit + a small % of shares annually.
We don't have to turn into CCP with control over Corporate direction. Simply hold the shares passively.
Have to figure out something where corps have no dividends. Maybe a set yearly sale %.
I think about how beneficial it would be to give $1600 cash right now and match another $1600 to each individual in basically a retirement index fund that is only accessible in ___ years or ___ first time homebuyer etc circumstances like a new type of IRA. Hell the government could take a cut in ___ years and it would pay for itself.
saying he could easily exert a LOT of power to change tax policy if he wanted to. And could step up and pay more in taxes even without changing the laws
That's not his fuckin job!
It's ours - and our government's.
I am definitely organizing for and personally committed to taxing the mega mega wealthy/corps, and so are millions more. But even working in politics my influence is like 1/100,000th of his.
If you order something, people don’t search for alternatives. If your tied into an eco system, you don’t move away from it.
Personally I actively try to support local businesses, use only non-monopolies out of principle.
A lot of us switched to Chrome because it was a better experience at the time. A lot bought from Amazon for the same reason. I’ll happily buy from a non-Amazon who gives me an experience better than Amazon, consider a browser that’s better than Chrome, or a search engine which gives better results than Google. Those three still get the majority of my in-category traffic though, because the experience is generally very good, quite consistent, and often best-in-class.
I think the hurdle to building a competitor to Facebook or Twitter is higher than the hurdle of selling me an electronic device instead of Amazon selling it to me. (BestBuy, NewEgg, MicroCenter [semi-local], and randos on EBay do it regularly. No one is casually going to beat Twitter and FB for social.)
Maybe feature X in Firefox is actually better than Chrome (just an imaginary example) but because it doesn’t exactly work like you are used too, it doesn’t appeal.
Or your peers are all in the same in-group and Software X is what a Real Programmer should be using.
That all together could mean an experience gets progressively worse yet you don’t switch.
McDonald's and Starbucks? Still churning out coffee to people standing in long lines.
It's infuriating, but what can you do?
Eventually the poors will get angry and united. So far our industry is helping keep them divided, but I'm not sure how long that will last.
First, both sides are mostly made up of non-violent people dedicated to their cause. Both sides can rightfully claim that a minority of "bad eggs" amongst them caused the violence.
But that's where the equivalency ends. We have to look at the cause itself.
It's quite a stretch to say that a group protesting police brutality (in the face of actual police brutality) is at all equivalent to a group seeking to overthrow a legitimate government (with zero evidence to back their claims).
It's not the same ballpark. It ain't even the same fucking sport.
The joys of being rich, you get to influence the government!
100% for supermarkets and Walmarts, but I can’t see how (in any jurisdiction) McDonalds or Starbucks would be allowed to do take out but local restaurants would not.
Wait, what? You casually suggest that the pandemic was planned as a conspiracy against the middle class, but you don't think it matters whether it was a conspiracy or not? Please clarify if I misunderstood.
As in, focusing on the cause of the problem and whether it was intentional or not isn't going to solve the problem.
I was trying to say that it doesn't matter what you believe is causing all this chaos, it's independent from what's actually going on in the world right this second.
Whether it's the conspiracy theorists who believe it was pre-planned by the CCP to accelerate them to be the next global super power fueled by vaccines with 5G death-rays and microchips, or if it's these behemoth companies putting in contingency plans and/or having the massive amounts of reserve capital (rivalling even medium-sized governments) to quickly cater to the new economic landscape brought on by lax regulations and tax havens - it doesn't matter, people are suffering in numbers that haven't been seen probably for a hundred years.
It's one of those times I (very begrudgingly) think that China has done well in terms of recovery. They have the hard, enforceable power to lock people in their homes for extended periods of time under who knows what penalty - or they're lying about their recovery to the world... Who knows?
These small business would probably not be closed if we had a competent national response. The probably would be closed but not bankrupt if we didn't have an inept fiscal response, also.
- Suppression of ability to speak freely
- One party system
- The executive organizations of the party agenda are the largest monopolies (instead of Krupp and Messerschmitt we have Google and Amazon for now).
I know I will get a lot of downvotes, but i hope it helps at least a couple of people here to know they aren't alone in thinking this now.
You're going to have to explain that one. Right now I just have to assume you mean "one party controls all three branches of government", in which case, it's not the fault of Democrats that the GOP turned into assclowns and got voted out.
The transfer of wealth has (in my personal theory) lead to the lobbying of everybody, no matter which political affiliation - to the point where both "sides" are agreeing on policies that are harming people and favoring corporations.
In general, US billionaires have gained over 1 trillion while small-businesses have perished https://www.statista.com/chart/22068/change-in-wealth-of-bil...
You can put considerable blame on those democratic governors and mayors who give shutdown orders to small businesses but allow major retailers to remain open https://www.nbcnews.com/business/consumer/tale-two-pandemics... https://azbigmedia.com/business/covid-small-business-impact-...
I _REALLY_ do not want to get political, but the timing is just too coincidental to not be mentioned... Now that a certain person is going to be kicked out of office, several politicians of mentioned governors and mayors are finally considering re-opening their cities when only weeks ago they were handing out fines - even when there's been a lackluster start to the US vaccination campaign.
These property management companies made their bed, imo.
My old firm sort of moved away from the LBO model, but it's still going strong.
The remedy for this is a transfer in the opposite direction - direct stimulus payments. There's a reason McConnell fought so hard against those.
Or had, anyways. Half of the shops on Main Street are now closed. Some were, I think, destined to fail. A candy shop is a pretty ridiculous prospect nowadays. Others have been staples to the town for years and helped make it worth it for other businesses to move in.
I’m really not sure if it’ll ever bounce back. There are still a couple of clothing shops, a restaurant, a brewery, and a wedding dress shop. If one or two of those go down I might think about pulling the plug myself.
Which industries lost jobs? Are the losses temporary due to lockdowns or a sign of an accelerating recession? Which regions lost the most jobs? Which income levels are most affected? What percent of jobless people are being covered by unemployment? And so on.
A single data point is useless click bait. Who is building the Tableau dashboard and having an economist write weekly economic analysis for the general public? Without good information, our democracy is rudderless.
"The losses last month were concentrated among restaurants, bars, hotels and entertainment venues. Educational services, mostly colleges and universities, also cut workers in December. So did film and music studios."
" Economists say it could take several years for the labour market to recover from the pandemic."
"contacts in the leisure and hospitality sectors reported renewed employment cuts due to stricter containment measures."
Here there is no in person dining. I think it would be pretty interesting to compare their revenues from 2019 to the periods during the pandemic where they have been open. My impression is that the 2020 numbers would be pretty weak, but I don't know.
It's a little hard to know in the moment if a restaurant/store/etc can make it through because of the 'fixed' costs like rent (never mind that those could also be addressed but the GOP is suddenly really concerned about the deficit because there's a Democrat about to be in charge so it's time to be deficit hawks again). Also many huge unknowns hang over any attempt to guess about that and those are how long till vaccines are in enough arms to allow for thing to go more normal, how much support they get from the government, and what their expenses and savings are to begin with.
This is clown world, and I don't know how we've sustained it this far. Everything seems to be in conflict. Somehow investors have a seemingly irrational confidence in the market. What is going on? Collective insanity?
The lower/working class has been completely obliterated. Though these people represent a larger chuck of the population their economic output is less impactful. In other words, Wallstreet is unaffected by bunch of unemployed service people. It's no wonder these people are angry and rallying behind a psudo-fascist like Trump. We need to do something about these inequality issues, otherwise we're on a slippery slope.
Say what you want about Trump, and there's a lot bad to say about him, but at least he pretends to listen to the blue collar class. People need to understand this because most of his voters are not the radical MAGA people. If those voters don't believe they have a voice now, and arguably they don't have that voice, that increases the chances of more fractionation, more violence, and so on.
They should be pissed, by the way. They've either lost their jobs or had to continue delivering food or whatever during a pandemic for the white collar workers whose jobs are primarily nonsense. Society rewards people who invent problems, the digital duct tapers who fix those problems, the countless managers and supervisors to wrangle those duct tapers, and governance structures like Human Resources, but pays shit for actual work. Even if you are white collar, depending on what you're doing you may get paid only modestly if you're solving a real problem.
Something in us is telling us that we can't allow actual problems to be solved because, if we solved them, we'd all be out of things to do. And that's one problem we don't know how to fix.
And while he pretends to listen, you've got politicians like AOC and Sanders fighting their backsides off for the blue collar classes, trying to get them healthcare and education.
If anything between outsourcing and automation employment isn't coming back. (And the employment that does come back will be at sub-minimum wage 12-hour days precarized "gigs" or 3 "half-time" jobs)
Retirees still eat and someone has to grow the food.
I don't understand how professional short sellers made it through the past few years. Everything from economy, social structure, and climate, all going to hell, but the stock market seems blind to all of it.
Fixed the title. Unfortunately we don't have to be where we're at. We knows who's most vulnerable, we know how it spreads (low airflow crowded spaces), we know who's been vaccinated and/or who's had it. The fact that any organized response, even at the city or state level, across both blue and red states, shows the ineptitude of these appointed officials. In many ways the "hey we're at least doing x,y" is worse than doing nothing at all.
Lets apply the simple rule: the less moving pieces a system has, the less it's likely to fail.
So, instead of getting 100 people to wear a mask in one business, get 1 business to increase the airflow in the business by 10x. Much simpler solution and something that can be directly measured. And really, they're non-competing; we can do both. Furthermore it eliminates the perceived need for draconian measure that are fueling other social problems.
The key government failure in the US, at least since a total failure by the white house to seize the moment early on, is republicans seizing mask-wearing as a wedge issue. Following the most simple measures such as masks would effectively solve the issue enough for vaccines to catch up. Cynical exploitation of ignorance in the people by republicans has been the true societal failure in this pandemic.
Sudden, elevated incidents of economic catastrophe leading to a massive decline in economic output and the underlying opportunities available to a few generations of intelligent people. This led to a significant decline in wealth creation relative to the rest of the emerging world in these nations.
Unlike the United States, they did not have the massive power of the worlds biggest military underwriting their currency and had to rely on the graces of the EU and IMF, who, frankly, displayed why bureaucratic lethargy is widely despised.
Make no mistake, this is going to remake the economy in ways very few of us can even begin to appreciate. How we, as a nation handle this sets the balance of power in the world for the next half of the century.
Just an example: https://ourworldindata.org/coronavirus-data-explorer?zoomToS...
Romania has had much more liberal policies than Austria for months, yet it is doing better (by a small constant factor it seems). The seasonal effect is clearly visible.
We will be suffering the consequences of these wrong policies for years as countries, and in particular also Europe as a whole, losing ground internationally.
In e-commerce life is good even if retail is a disaster. Who is hiring and doing well out of this?
There's got to be more incentive for governments to lift these restrictions, and a real cost of they don't, even if they're playing with someone else's money.
I know it would be next to impossible here in the U.S., but one of the things China did for the lockdown was to declare a rent abatement for anyone not allowed to do business. This wasn't a suspension where you got hammered later. You just did not pay rent while you had no income. End of story.
It was a temporary suspension of the economy in order to get back to a more normal level of operation. Australia is another example of this.
We got theater, fraud, and politicization instead.
[0]https://www.lexology.com/library/detail.aspx?g=3848d55f-749c...