Trump Impeached for Second Time | Hacker News Reader

Trump Impeached for Second Time

bbc.co.uk

75 points1cvmask36 comments

Other Discussion: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=25768286

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[Impeachment] CONVICTION requires a 2/3 senate majority, impeachment just a half of the house. That's why it didn't happen last time. That's why it won't happen this time.

I'd like to see him sacked too, but it seems mathematically impossible at this point.

Edited to correct my confusion of impeachment and conviction!

> Impeachment requires a 2/3 majority. That's why it didn't happen last time. That's why it won't happen this time.

No, it takes a simple majority in the House. It did happen last time. And it did happen this time.

Conviction after impeachment takes a 2/3 majority in the Senate.

> I'd like to see him sacked too, but it seems mathematically impossible at this point.

It's not mathematically impossible for 2/3 of the Senate to vote to convict. It might be politically impossible, but that's a different thing.

It’s also 2/3 of the senate that’s “present”.

So if 25 republican senators boycott and don’t show up to the vote they can convict along party lines... or if 17 vote to convict, or some sliding scale between those two options

Corrected on impeachment vs conviction, sorry you're quite right there!

I'll keep my hyperbole on mathematically impossible if that's ok? I like a little exaggeration. :)

The reporting is that Mitch McConnell is really upset with Trump and never wants to talk to him again, is undecided on conviction, and sees a potential opportunity to purge Trump from the GOP.

Honestly, I feel like the deciding factor may be whether or not on the day of the vote persons with the most influence over the GOP feel the party is better off convicting and blocking Trump from even pretending to run in 2024.

EDIT: Many in the GOP blame Trump for them losing majority of the House, the Senate, and the White House. He was already a proven losing formula before last weeks events. Now, I wouldn't be surprised if they viewed him as a straight up liability for the midterms and in 2024.

I think it will be a bit more clinical but along the same lines: can you convince 17ish gop senators that they're chance of re-election goes up if they impeach and they won't get primaried either.

Given his die hard popularity with ~40% of the US population still approving [1], and with the republican base 87% approving [2], it would be brave of Mitch to take his first principled stand...

[1] https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/

[2] https://news.gallup.com/poll/203198/presidential-approval-ra...

Mitch already sent a memo stating that if he was impeached, the trial would not begin until after he is out of office. So he will not begin proceedings.

https://www.businessinsider.com/mcconnell-says-impeachment-t...

Better politically to avoid any decision...

I'd be watching what happens to the 10 Republicans who swapped sides here.

Both the flak they will get for jumping ship and the flak they will get knowing it will affect the next vote.

The sad thing is, if it were me, I'd factor in my personal safety and that of my family, employees etc before voting to impeach.

I'm contributing $17.88 to each of their campaigns.

I think we're going to have to wait for the base to get over him, and for that to happen I think we're going to have to wait for more continued Dem control of everything before the core voters like the idea of beating the Dems more than they like the idea of Trumpism. Might not happen for a while either given how narrow the Dem control of congress is.

Going against the base in your area is increasingly just asking to get primaried, on both sides of the aisle.

Yeah. Interesting times for Biden and the Dems. There will be a push for radicalism and a push to do as little as possible (to not mobilise the rep base). I wonder which will prevail.

Beside the pandemic, I think the performance in the first debate was disastrous. If he’d faced it like the second debate, he might well not be in this position.

Of course I think he was upset by the initial impeachment. And he probably was under the mistaken conclusion that he needed to rattle Biden to win the debate.

He was like an unbridled bronco when he needed to be more of a showhorse for the undecideds.

Modern elections are interesting because they're so close. I believe they're so close because polling has become nearly a science and the funding on both sides allow a professional process.

That means small mistakes or single bad performances decide elections in a way they couldn't even 10 years ago.

It's interesting, even for outside observers like me (limey brit)

I wonder if the $50 million PAC to support Rs who vote to convict will sway any of them as well

https://www.politico.com/news/2021/01/12/anti-trump-group-go...

I checked and it looks like I a senate race usually costs about 10m per candidate [1]. So 50m is a substantial offer. I guess the trick here is collusion: I wouldn't want to be the only one who went out on a limb, and now no one else will take my calls and 101 crazy trumpers are going to run against me in the primary. If there were 20+ willing to do it, maybe they could collectively weather the storm?

Thanks for the link, I didn't know Republicans against Trump were this well funded.

[1] https://blogs.lse.ac.uk/usappblog/2020/11/27/the-2020-electi... [1]

No Congressperson should miss an opportunity to bargain and Mitch is great at it.

Reminder: Democrats lost house seats even with the huge surge in covid mail-in voting.

With this action by Pelosi, I guarantee Trump will hold office again after the next presidential election.

Doubtful. SDNY has been waiting for him to leave office to charge him with a string of financial crimes. He’s more likely to be in prison.

Prisoners can run for President.[0] Normally I wouldn't even bother saying this but I have no idea what direction this story is going to take us.

[0] https://politics.stackexchange.com/questions/56838/if-a-pris...

He is definitely playing a Berlusconi in terms of his fear of leaving office and interest in being abroad. Which is why they should refer him to a tribunal for treason; the dead can't run or kill prostitutes.

Sure, they can. But the restrictions that come with being a prisoner don't particularly aid a campaign.

Even if he were to be pardoned for any federal crimes (which isn't implausible, even without a self-pardon) he seems pretty likely to face criminal charges in New York State and possibly, with the election extortion effort, Georgia, that are not subject to federal pardon.

Prison probably complicates a comeback campaign in 2024. (Also, even without that, he would have neither the outsider ambiguity that help him win in 2016 not the power of incumbency that helped him, but not enough to win, in 2020. He might retain enough influence with the Republican base that if he isn't disabled by legal issues he could win a nomination in 2024, but the general election seems more uphill.)

After the Mueller report was completed ignored by, well everyone really, I have no confidence that he's going to ever be charged with anything. Happy and hoping to be proved wrong.

Trump's brain will be too mushy in 4 years to comfortably run for president (in addition to what spending four years depressed will do to it).

There is actually some good evidence for this. Balance and motor control issues (two-handed water drinking, weird stance, the “very steep” ramp thing, later covering the ramp to navy ship), body jerking, slurred speech, lack of impulse control and empathy, etc.

The surprise Walter Reed visit was questionable, and the fact that he was administered a cognitive test only given to those with suspected dementia—then bragged about his results and claimed it was a difficult test—only add fuel to the speculation.

EDIT: Not claiming authority here or that others should conclude what I have, especially since I don’t have the time to reference all the things that convinced me.

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Person,_woman,_man,_camera,_...

I hope they give him the proper roast he deserves.

Couldn't have happened to a nicer person.

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