American Apathy: Our Declining Interest in Covid-19 Cases and Deaths
blog.thefactual.com
blog.thefactual.com
At some point, everyone made up their mind, made their plans, voted for their politicians, what is the point of continuing to spin the wheels on this one?
I was trying to do a rough cost/benefit analysis in my head whenever there was social pressue to do something other than stay the hell out of everyone's way.
(Things have got bad enough in the UK since then that I'm now able to do the simpler thing - which is just stay the hell out of everyone's way. Much less taxing on the brain)
Here's a respected not-idiot virologist talking about it.
https://twitter.com/mugecevik/status/1348771251758784517?s=2...
(Infect OR disease) (from:mugecevik) until:2020-06-30 since:2020-05-01
Emotionally, I think we feel defeated. We’re counting down the days till a functional government can be put in place and forestall disaster. It feels like everyday we need to wait causes more needless death. But sadly there’s little we can do about this.
The trend is pronounced enough that there's likely more at play than just "see on website instead of searching" but "I already know it's bad so I don't bother looking it up" and "I already see this data regularly on other outlets without specifically searching for it" surely combine to cause some of this result.
Early on, some crucial things come to mind (Federal mask mandate, directing Federal funds to rapid testing and PPE), but, now, the wildfire rages everywhere. Making vaccines free, including for illegal immigrants (it's incredibly stupid and self-defeating to deny it to them, as some places have purportedly done), and directing a lot of resources toward distribution and education are the only obvious things to me.
Like in an RPG, some countries put points into skill trees that lets them handle this kind of problem very well. If the U.S. has a weakness, culturally, legally, economically, and geographically, a pandemic is it; it's just not the kind of thing it ever specced to handle.
I'm not sure what difference that would make since masks are already mandated everywhere by state and local authorities. The real issue with masks is that (a) many people don't wear them properly (I routinely see people with it only over their mouth, not their nose, or with a huge gap between their face and the mask) and (b) anything that covers your face qualifies as a "mask", no matter how coarse the weave of whatever material it is made of.
So the only argument I see otherwise is that there's some radical difference in the R number between the viruses such that masks only lower substantially enough for flu and not SARS-CoV-2. But that's a much more specific argument that I don't see being argued much less substantiated and proven.
The flu viruses are a different class of virus (rhinovirus) from SARS-CoV-2 (coronavirus) and could be expected to be affected differently by mitigation efforts. I don't know that the much lower flu numbers tell us that people are wearing masks properly; they could be due simply to social distancing and people staying home. Also, AFAIK there is not significant evidence of transmission of flu by asymptomatic people, whereas there is for COVID-19, so it is easier for people to avoid transmitting flu by self-isolating if they have symptoms.
And now journalists are writing about American apathy.
Give me a break. The front page of virtually every major news site is littered with Covid data. On an individual level, what more do you want from me? I wear a mask, haven't visited elderly relatives, haven't traveled much, etc.
It feels like journalists and news organization can only survive on constant outrage. And if we aren't outraged enough, they still complain.
In my town the swimming pool in my condo complex was shut down when COVID-19 began and never reopened. I was the only one who ever used it. They could've just made it maximum capacity 2 or something. Meanwhile, the bar down the street was left open until it became a superspreader event. Anecdotally, I think we've all seen the idiocy and inconsistency at all levels of government which adds to the cynicism and apathy.
I wear N95 all the time in public, and if you don’t want to get this or spread it, it’s basically entirely in your power.
The only excuse is that someone is mentally deficient or almost unable to draw breath.
That said, a vast majority of spread is due to very stupid (or just plain reckless) people making decisions for their community.
However they too can wear an N95 resperator for less than $3. A supply of ten lasts about two months of rotated use.
A good use of our tax dollars would be to supply them public with them.
Strong breath during exercise can travel quite a distance.
https://www.costco.com/niosh-n95-round-respirator%2C-100-mas...
It is because we cannot ignore the rules completely (that might attract fines), but mass lax observance of the rules might communicate to elected officials and potential candidates for office that people are getting tired of lockdowns and restrictions after nearly a year and we want some other approach. (For example, as someone already advanced in years, I personally feel that the rights of people now in their teens and early twenties to enjoy normal coming of age things like big group events and the usual courtship rituals takes higher priority than the most vulnerable COVID demographic – half of our deaths have been in care homes.) A candidate who looks at how willing the public is to accept the restrictions imposed on them, and who offers to change the state of affairs, might get my and others’ vote.
Now that we know so much about the virus, there is a large subjective element to whether an approach to the epidemic is “right” or “wrong”, and an electorate has the right to push its elected officials towards the course of action which they feel is preferable.
I think this data illustrates the exact opposite of what the researchers claim: people are actually pretty good at intuiting danger. A new danger that's never been seen is worthy of attention in a way that the 101st death is not.
There's plenty of studies about the ways humans fail at assessing risk, I just think the above is not one of them.
Also, news is just one type of item on everyone's data feed that's mixed with fake IG posts, fake news and dishonest ads. That approach makes as much sense as buying your groceries at the sewage treatment plant.
[0] https://www.statnews.com/2020/02/04/two-scenarios-if-new-cor...
What exactly would I learn from searching about the latest COVID death stats? We're beyond the point of arguing with others about on takes on it. It's no longer a political issue of paramount importance.
Things are likely to get worse for a month or two and then gradually get significantly better.
Found the guy who can afford to pay his rent/bills and buy food!
COVID was very politically important when we were choosing a president. Now the gameplan seems more or less settled.
This is like accusing those in the 50s for being apathetic about polio, because they didn't upend their entire life to protect their children from this incredibly deadly and disfiguring disease. When humans are confronted with a problem they simply cannot meaningfully prevent, they tend to ignore it and get on with their lives.
We have a baby, it is hard to see doctors/dentists as we don't want to take him there. We never go to stores together and someone needs to watch him. Daycare doesn't seem safe yet for us, so we are doing our best.
Majority of parents work, many kids now study from home. This is putting an insane pressure on the parents.
I'm not suffering from "psychic numbing", by now I know the risks, I am just TIRED physically and mentally. What else can an average citizen do? Distance, wear a mask, suck it up and wait for your turn to get a vaccine. Searching COVID daily does nothing.
From what I understand under 30 there's a greater risk of complications from flu sideeffects than COVID. You shouldn't be visiting risk groups anyway and I'm not saying go out to party but avoiding useful activities seems excessive.
My wife won't be vaccinated till she starts breastfeeding and neither will my infant buy I won't avoid doctor appointments because of it.
If every individual did only the essential things, and cut down on unnecessary contact, US would not be where it is today.
They've heard on the news that it spreads faster, but they haven't digested how much faster or what that means when health resources are already taxed.
All we can do now is try to encourage doctors and hospitals to start administering cholecalciferol at large bolus doses.
People are not getting enough in general, I would strongly suggest to request a blood test from your Dr. and up your levels via supplements or proper foods/sunlight exposure. I think in general humans are meant to be outside alot and being forced indoors has not been a good thing for us as a species.
[1] - https://www.cdc.gov/media/releases/2017/p0718-diabetes-repor...
[2] - https://youtu.be/5LTWJOi3bCo?t=3 [video] skipping rude intro
Maybe this will help:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ha2mLz-Xdpg
or
When 3,000 died in 9/11 it was an outrage, but now it's more than that each and every day and everyone has become numb to it.
https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/fastats/deaths.htm
I imagine people would act a bit differently if we had heart disease charts and graphs plastered on the front of every major news site.
What single cause has resulted in 4,000 daily deaths, day in and day out for weeks on end? (and likely for many more months to come)
The deaths above expected will tell the full story. How many days were there 4,000+ deaths above expected? Probably quite a few, but less than people think.
https://app.flourish.studio/visualisation/1712761/
What single cause has resulted in 4k daily for weeks on end? German invasion of the USSR. There are 1417 days between 22 Jun 1941 - 09 May 1945. According to Russian government figures, USSR losses within postwar borders now stand at 26.6 million, including 8 to 9 million due to famine and disease.[0] So, 17.6m / 1417 = 12,420.6 people per day.
Many deaths are preventable but eventually you die.
500k "preventable" deaths every single year in the USA from smoking. Many others could be "prevented" by eating healthier food or getting more exercise.
Covid has been terrible but you shouldn't cherry pick stats to tell a story that isn't true.
[1] https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-12-31/faster-sp...
All these years of this administration, it has been constant relentless merciless assault on our _attention._ We talk about the attention economy? All media has been fixed on the ongoing cavalcade of schlock emitting from 1600 Pennsylvania, non stop lying[2] & affrontery right out of the gate.
It makes it hard to sustain any kind of caring or thoughtfulness, when there's madcap bedlam & lying deceitful insanity working hand in hand with Senate to both pass incredible executive acts & bring in all kinds of wild completely unqualified public servants. The show keeps changing, breakneck pace of whatever three delusional soul crushing things are going to happen today.
We passed the number of US military deaths of the Vietnam war in late April. Heavens, that is so long ago; it feels like we'd just started this long war then. By July we were up to a death count topping most modern wars excluding WWII[3]. But the slow rolling incremental nature of it, the jaw dropping antics & childishness & lying all about us... it's been hard. Real hard. I don't want to tell us to chin up, carry on, because this is dark days, dark material, truly a national disaster of the grandest scale. But with context, I understand some of why this our interests have not been as rapt & focused as they might have been.
[1] https://prologue.blogs.archives.gov/2018/01/25/vietnam-the-f...
[2] https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2020/07/13/president...
[3] https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/factcheck/2020/07/30/fac...
I absolutely agree.
> It's been 10 months of terror and horror
I blame this squarely on the saturation coverage it has been given by media networks. People need time to hear themselves think or they'll go nuts. Politicians haven't been terribly helpful either.
I personally find it hard to get too worked up over it anymore.
When my neighbor caught it in July, I was very concerned for him. He was the first person I knew personally to catch it and I was worried for his health. Thankfully him an his wife and kid got through it fine.
Then in September another neighbor caught it, I checked in with him daily to make sure he was coming through it okay.
In October, my 98 year old grandma caught it. I thought great, this is finally the time. She's going to die from it. And then she got over it just fine.
In December, I had an aunt and uncle catch it, both in their late 60s. Both got over it just fine.
I learned the other day the reason I hadn't heard much out of one of my best friends is that just before Christmas him and his wife caught it. They also got over it just fine.
Heard this weekend that another of my neighbors had it in their house. Also getting over it perfectly fine.
I don't say all that to discount the tragedy for those who have died from it. It's a terrible thing and I wish it hadn't happened.
But we were sold Ebola by the media, and we got an unusually deadly seasonal flu.
- endangers the lives of healthcare workers (they're absolutely burnt out at this point) - makes people not go to the doctor for necessary health issues - causes other emergencies to not be serviced
>But we were sold Ebola by the media, and we got an unusually deadly seasonal flu.
The current death toll is after lockdowns, social distancing, mask wearing, staggered hospitalizations etc. Without those the death toll would be in the millions, how is that just a unusually deadly seasonal flu? A bad flu season is 65k deaths. Current death toll is ~400k.
A smaller percentage of a very large number is still a very large number.
In March / April, people were claiming something on the order of a >10% fatality rate. We are much closer to 1%, and it drops off down to practically nothing once you get to anyone below middle-age.
Since the fatalities skew heavily toward the elderly, in practice this means if everyone catches Covid, most people are unlikely to have a close personal friend or relative who dies as a result of the disease. Sounds not too bad, right?
A fatality rate of 0.3% also means that if everyone in the United States catches it, a million people will die. We're coming up on the equivalent of a 9/11 every day (though again, skewing heavily toward the elderly). You can't rely on personal experience to put these kinds of numbers into perspective.
> A fatality rate of 0.3% also means that if everyone in the United States catches it, a million people will die
Exactly.
The first sounds completely acceptable. The second sounds unacceptable. They are exactly the same number, just worded differently for effect.
If you go with "Dunbar's Number" of 150 people that a single person can meaningfully maintain a social relationship with, that means if everyone in the US caught coronavirus, statistically you would have a 50% chance of knowing someone that died of it. Those seem like perfectly acceptable odds.
I think that cuts to the core of it. It's a tragic situation, but it is unclear whether it is catastrophic. That means we should be unsurprised that society is pretty evenly split over whether the measures we've taken have been too much or too little.
With all the talk about it is almost sounds like Covid-19 is a death sentence. It is not, it is a statistical increase. GP know 8 Covid-19 mild cases and zero severe. Let's estimate the chance of severe Covid-19 over reported cases to about 1/10. That's a probability of 43%, GP's experience is typical.
One interesting bit of stats I've seen is that catching Covid-19 roughly doubles your chances of dying this year, regardless of your age. It is a lot but still in the realm of statistics.
And as you probably know, we are very bad at judging statistics instinctively, and for most of us, it is all we have. Otherwise, most people would stop smoking. If Covid-19 can (statistically) cost you one year of your life, smoking costs you 10.
Unfortunately too part of the problem is so little actually helpful information is being distributed. What your average Joe hears is
1. death count - useful.
2. Vaccine - useful up to a point - they won't be able to get it for a while.
3. Wear a mask - useful.
I think beyond this we need to make sure people know that:
1. Most cases are because of contact with asymptomatic people (AND Before that one HN person replies with that doesn't exist - it absolutely does - antibody tests are also confirming this)
https://www.cnn.com/2020/11/20/health/cdc-coronavirus-spread...
2. Vitamin D is NOT your Trump conspiracy cure. It actually works and is backed up by 2 gold standard studies. We don't have more research in this area because no one is funding it. There are many other studies (not randomized/placebo) but ones looking at old people that were already previously taking vitamin D (because of their existing regimen before the pandemic) with massively better outcomes. Someone posted this link that does a nice job summarizing:
That doesn't make Vitamin D a cure or and end to the pandemic.