I think I agree with you on the big lines. Although I'm guessing large population migration will be more due to rising water (most humans live along some cost line). And if millions of people have to move, there will be wars with or without fascit goverments. With this scenario, the 10 year time frame seems pessimistic, I think 2050 is more likely.

Either way, the earth system will regulate, it would be nice if civilisation managed to survive the transition. I'm pretty sure there will still be humans around, happy humans I'm not so sure.