Corporate M&A seems especially affected by misperception and bad incentives. Executives often want to expand their kingdoms, even at the expense of shareholders. They also suffer from "shiny new object" syndrome - buying whatever's sexy.
Potentially worse, there's the "winner's curse" in auctions. About 7 years ago, Joseph A. Bank tried to buy its larger competitor, Men's Wearhouse. Men's Wearhouse then surprised Bank's execs by making a counter-offer. They got into a bidding war against each other, neither side wanting to "lose," with Men's Wearhouse "winning" by buying its smaller competitor for $1.8B. And we know, even pre-pandemic, how that story turned out!
Point is: don't weigh too heavily what other people will pay for a company today... weigh more what your analysis suggests the company will produce in the future (not what other people will pay in the future).