People want to buy, but stock is depleted and production reduced, and many small dealers won't survive 2021 for lack of inventory.
People want to buy, but stock is depleted and production reduced, and many small dealers won't survive 2021 for lack of inventory.
One positive is that those dealers drowning in older, unsold stock have been able to turn a lot of that into cash. That's allowed a few of them to restore some financial health to their business and get out from under some of their debt to vendors and other creditors.
But even so, the bike business is so commoditized and the supply chain is so lose that bike shops (and manufacturers as well) have a pretty low ceiling of profitability. Even in the midst of a boom, the economics of the bike business restrict it to a lifestyle business at best. For some shops, this (likely temporary) boom probably presents the best window of opportunity to close their doors.
The idea "I could do some bike work on my own, so bike work can't be expensive" has to die, simple as that. People can pop open a beer at home just fine, nobody expects bars to sell beer at a similar price.
If shops insist on offering workshop services at a loss for bikes bought at the establishment, they are free to offer huge rebates as a hardware sales argument.
Also, servicing a lower-end bike ends up meaning the service is a large percentage of the original cost. So the prospect of paying, say, $150 for a tune-up, cables, and a new chain on a $400 bike feels excessive. But if you do it for any cheaper than that, you are either compromising the quality of your work or compromising your ability to turn a profit.
That part of the market is usually served, quite well actually for both sides, by a shop that is one third preowned bikes, one third budget parts and one third highschool job repairs (sometimes they also rent out the preowned). Lifesavers for my theft-immune three speed (they'll happily take on daring salvage operations nobidy else would even attempt), but I surely no place were I'd leave one of my Campag steeds even for just a tire inflation.
A local bike shop repair has two benefits over doing it myself - experience and convenience.
Unfortunately for bike shops the people who are most in need of their experience are those who are newer to riding (or dusting off a 20 year old unridden bike). When the workshop labour charge is approaching the perceived worth of a bike the customer is not going to want to use those services (more likely to dump the bike and buy a new one from a sporting goods store or Walmart).
People who ride regularly are more likely to have bikes where the cost of a repair is a small fraction of the bike's worth (personal or actual) but they are also more likely to have the tools and experience to do the work themselves.
I go back into mtb riding 2 years ago and upgraded to a mid-range full suspension bike at the end of 2019. While I was familiar with basic bike maintenance I didn't know what I was doing with some of the newer bike tech. When my bike needed a service in the summer I tried to use my local bike store - they needed my bike for a month in order to get the work done (backed up due to Covid demand).
Rather than miss all those rides I bought the tools and figured how to do the jobs myself. Now I have the tools I can do those jobs again for almost no outlay (and wrenching is therapeutic).
I had to replace some spokes, that would have taken me a while to do on my own and some specialized equipment I won't need again for a decade.
In the town I used to live in, Performance bought out the only decent bike shop in town so I got into the habit of buying online because I could wrench better than the Performance mechanics. When I moved up to Oregon there are 5 good bike shops here in town and they all charge reasonable rates so I use them whenever possible.
I do still buy online and install parts myself, not to save a buck, but because it's more convenient than taking my bike into the shop and leaving it there for a few days.
If the shop charges more than I value my time, than I won't go to the shop except to buy parts and tools to fix my bike with. Not sure why you think DIY needs to die. This is a supply/demand problem and ease of repair will depress prices.
Where the workshop model might work is the fabrication of parts. The supply chain has tanked; I'd be willing to pay double on that chainring I busted and nobody can stock.
I very much learned the importance of business models and product-market fit, though!
I find it interesting though that you say the bike business is commoditized. In particular there are several bike manufacturers who have transitioned into live-style brands (the big one being specialized). Their prices have gone through the roof, while their manufacturing is all outsourced to cheapest bidders in China. It's now common for top of the line race bikes to cost >$10,000 while the frames for the bikes cost them ~$300 shipped to the US (and the total bike might be on the order of $1000-$2000 max). Mind you nothing of that ends up with the dealers.
Not true, the very expensive bikes definitely have better margins.
What I heard from friends of mine is that the margins are not really any better on high-end bikes. Because you sell significantly less of those it used to be that it was much easier to make decent money on low end bikes (i.e. everyday bikes used for riding around town). I think things changed a bit with the popularity of e-bikes now (they are generally more expensive but also much more in demand, don't know about the margins exactly).
I got really lucky and found one a 2 hour drive away. Now it’s an appreciating asset in my garage if you can believe it. I ride it of course but ever have I seen this kind of demand for bikes in my entire life.
I hope this is going to serve as a global correction on our need to be more self sufficient. I’ve been thinking a lot recently about how we took two steps forward with globalization and tech and we probably need to take one step back. Pretty much every bike and bike part is made in Taiwan or China. I’d love to have a made in the USA bike just as much as I’d imagine folks in the UK, South America, etc... feel the same.
Here, in NYC of all places, I have 0 returned emails and even having cast a wider net.
Of course there's plenty of cheap e-bikes with junky components.
I want a decent commuter with belt drive and higher end components. Disc brakes.
I can get the cheap versions of this all day but not really the best stuff unless I possibly order it built by Maxx or get a Riese & Müller e-bike. Still looks like waiting until at least April though.
One of the bike shops I had contacted suggested it, since a lot of shops around the country have a good stock of parts and you can usually find a nice used frameset online.
Complete bikes are a highly competitive market whereas bike parts are mostly not.
You will get much more mileage for your dollars buying completes that have exactly what you want or with some small delta of upgrades.
They also did some custom work on my commuting bike (which involves quite a hodgepodge of fender/brake compromises) which was 10x better than I could do myself.
http://longbikes.com located in Colorado https://www.terratrike.com located in Michigan
There are atleast 3 others I can think of off the top of my head.
If you are looking for "A Generic Bicycle at Walmart prices", then yes you are SOL.
Those four things will get you a long way with most bikes that "ran when parked" 10-20 years ago. There is a vast number of bikes in the US that meet basically that description.
Source: was a volunteer bike mechanic at the Ohio City Bike Co-op. They got a lot of donations in that were at most 60 minutes of work from being rideable.
And for what it's worth my mechanic ran low on chains and sprockets at some point. I don't know if that was just him or larger supply chain issues though.
Possible exception: glazed brake pads, but still relatively uncommon. Cables and housing are much bigger wear items for most bikes. Mostly because they aren't stainless at the low end and rust.
Chains will also rust, but it's pretty hard to end up with an unsalvageable chain unless a bike has been left outside for a long time. Source: left my beater road bike outside at the curb for 9 years in Boston, including winters. Lubed the chain a couple times a year. It still runs.
Getting oil on pads is also fairly easy to (accidentally) do. Learnt to be less liberal with the spray oil the hard way!
Unfortunately for bike shops replacing disk brake pads is trivial. Bleeding the Hydraulic system not so much, if it wasn't for the stopping power I'd trade back to brake cables any day.
So like a lock? It's an arms race, and if these things did really take off, bike thieves would find a way to defeat them (easy enough to detect if a bike has one after all).
Also it's not as if many many iPhones aren't being swiped on the streets of London either.
A tracking device though would be embedded inside the frame itself, and thus not be removable without cutting up (and thus likely destroying) the frame. The frame is the single-most valuable component on a bike.
Depends. And parts can be fenced with much less risk than entire bikes. I doubt that trackers provide any actual safety improvement, neither in the small (what will you do with the information you might get?) nor in the big (will trackers eventually reduce the number of thieves?).
What might help, I think, are serial number registries. Rohloff hub serials can be registered by owners and checked by would-be buyers, which I think does have some of the desired effect of making those bikes less attractive to thieves.
Bicycle frames have to be a lot stronger than phones and laptops. That means greater wall thickness (I think ½ mm is on the lower side for steel bicycle tubing)
Contrary to what the other commenter said, this is not attractive for carbon frame owners as I wasn't thinking GPS tracking, but low power, snitching networks (like Apple's stuff, where the stolen iPhone only needs to be seen by another iPhone; or like corona tracking). How often do you see a carbon bikes in the wild? A frame like that may also have other components worth destroying the frame over.
The Guardian bike tracker is one potential option. I would caution against a generic bluetooth tracker, I am not sure if you can integrate it with a SIM card easily.
https://www.aliexpress.com/item/1005001742170443.html?spm=a2...
Well, that depends on who you ask.
Several local stores here saw it coming, and places enormous orders with their distributors when there was still inventory. My local did WELL -- they were aggressive and basically maxed their credit buying bikes from $400 to about $1200 (ie the sweet spot for casual riders), and sold every single one they could get their hands on.
They're now the go-to joint in inner Houston for e-bikes, too.
So there was a play to be made, and a way to surf this thing, but I also wouldn't be surprised to learn that this shop in particular was one of the few to really do it right.
My local shop that is a Trek Dealer said last October that they were only just starting to get the bikes that they ordered back in February (pre-pandemic). Meaning that their standard inventory for summer never arrived. I just talked to this shop again this weekend because I was in there for ski service (like many bike shops in the Rocky Mountains, they are ski shops in the winter and bike shops in the summer), and the guy showed me their list of pending orders. They are expecting an order of bikes from Trek by the end of January that will complete the order they placed LAST APRIL. So at least for Trek, that is how far behind they are.
I have also visited 2 different dealers that sell Specialized ("Specialized" is the brand name). One of them (the smaller one) told me that they have $100,000 worth of bikes and accessories on order and have been waiting for over 5 months on them to arrive with no update on any changes.
The other Specialized Dealer is a big dealer in this area and they only have one bike in stock, a Peter Sagan edition Race Bike priced around $10k and 2 child sized bikes. They said they are still waiting for their orders from April to arrive.
One good sign was from a local shop that sells Santa Cruz Mountain Bikes. They apparently are only about 2 months behind. But that shop has still struggled to keep bikes in stock. So their demo fleet for people to take up to the ski resort (for downhill mountain biking) last summer was all previous model-year bikes because they couldn't set aside bikes for their demo fleet because they were selling as fast as they arrived. In fact he told me that they have been selling bikes off a waiting list for people 4-5 states away who are driving 12-24 straight hours to pick up bikes because this shop has been able to keep some in stock.
The shop I mentioned that was clever and has done well as a result isn't a dealer for either. They carry BMC, Cervelo, Santa Cruz, Salsa, and some others, and they've managed to stay busy and stocked all year.
Because they typically introduce new technology which is somewhat incompatible with previous generations (they were expected to go to 2x12 speed like the two other manufacturers), everyone was holding off on orders and the end of 2018 and beginning of 2019.
The manufacturers also expected a low volume year, hence they did not order that many components and frames either, so everyone was caught off-guard when the pandemic hit.
Just to clarify:
He doesn't meant that each year's new kit is incompatible with last year's. He just means that major generational changes introduce incompatibilities.
11-speed cassettes have been the rule for most new road bikes for quite some time now, but obviously when it was introduced it wasn't compatible with 10-speed systems.
11 has been around for a while now. Shimano has 3 "serious" tiers of road bike components: Dura Ace, Ultegra, and 105 at the "bottom". (The bottom here is the bottom of serious cycling, not the bottom of cycling generally; the lowest 105-equipped bike in Specialized's road line is $1,400 MSRP.)
When I bought a bike in late 2014, Dura Ace and Ultegra were 11-speed, but 105 was still 10. Then, for a while, everything was 11. You could (and can) mix and match within Shimano or within SRAM as long as everything was 11 speed (with the exception that you can't mix mechanical derailleurs and electronic shifters, or vice versa).
A year or two ago, SRAM introduced a new 12-speed electronic-only group at its high end ("RED"), which has since filtered down to its middle-grade ("Force"). SRAM still makes 11-speed mechanical and, I think, still makes parts for its first electronic setup ("eTap") which was 11-speed.
Shimano is behind, and still hasn't introduced a 12-speed system, but there's a lot of anticipation for it, which is what OP is referring to.
(I should also note for the record that Shimano still makes and sells lower-grade component groups, too; the cheapest road bike on the Specialized web site is intro level Allez at just $900. It comes with an 8-speed Shimano groupset called Claris, which is currently Shimano's bottom-of-the-line. They also still make a 9-speed (Sora) and a 10-speed (Tiagra).)
However, people who buy a new high-end bikes are generally reluctant to get a bike with a groupset that will not be the the latest in less than a years time. Especially because traditionally you could get extremely good deals on bikes with the old groupsets once the new one came out.
I have a vague sense that the move through 9 and 10 to 11 speed was pretty quick, and that the moment of effective 11-speed hegemony has been long and really shows no sign of truly fading, but I have only a few points to go on.
The biggest one is that SRAM has kept its 12-speed stuff segregated. They still sell mechanical Red and Force in 11, and the web site still shows Red eTap (the 11-speed electronic groupset). All the 12-speed stuff is at another tier and uses the "AXS" suffix for branding.
Nobody knows yet what Shimano will do. Campy is really on its own in lots of ways (I dunno about you, but in my circles riding Campy is mostly a way to say "I have lots of discretionary income and/or a very understanding spouse").
My neighbor is a bike tinkerer and serious rider. He's moved a couple of his bikes to AXS, but only by doing some wheeling/dealing on eBay & whatnot. It does not appear to have made him materially faster. ;)
I was itching for an upgrade on my bike back in the spring, and found the upgrade price for even Force AXS really offputting. I ended up putting Red eTap on, and have REALLY loved it, especially at < 1/2 the cost. I didn't really even consider the Shimano stuff, as I DRASTICALLY prefer the SRAM cockpit interface -- to say nothing of the simpler install, as eTap is wireless.
I just looked this up and on DA both 9 and 10 speed lasted 8 years, so not faster than the move to 12 speed (btw it is pretty much confirmed that both Ultegra and DA will move to 12 speed this year, somewhat different to the usual cycle which had a 1-2 year delay for Ultegra to adopt DA tech).
Regarding Campagnolo, it's unfortunate that they have the reputation of being expensive. I think one reason for this is that they hardly do any OEM, so you have to build your own bike, which often ends up more expensive. In particular if you otherwise buy bikes when they are on sale. The other reason is because the groups don't really compare with the Shimano and SRAM groups, i.e. the equivalent to Ultegra is probably Potenza not Chorus, and to DA and RED it's probably Record (this isn't helped by the fact that Campa now only does SR in electronic).
I've recently after many years riding shimano moved back to campa (I got an awesome deal on a SR-EPS equipped bike) and I have to say it is an awesome groupset. From all I have read, especially if you want mechanical Campa super-record and record is what to get.
Regarding SRAM AXS, I want to like them, but I've heard about way to many quality control problems (Force AXS front derailleur chainsuck has been widely reported) , Red Etap was much better.
That said, I don't think any groupset will make you substantially faster.
Sorry, all in German:
https://bellevue.nzz.ch/reisen-entdecken/velo-boom-in-der-sc...
https://www.velosuisse.ch/e-bike-markt-waechst-weiter-mit-gr...
While public transportation is phenomenal, clean, and can be relied on, it’s a pandemic. So, it makes sense that people are riding their bikes.
https://www.bicycleretailer.com/
If you go through the past news articles there, lots of info about import data, sales boom and sell out of in stock inventory during 2020, etc.
However, none of the four online shops I tried deliver outside Denmark.
But now even his inventory is bare. Maybe I should sell one of my bikes to help relieve the pressure.
Hmm
Nah.
Anyway, I think it's getting really cold the next months, so demand will probably go down a bit.
As another commenter has said - why don't shops charge according to the increased demand? This situation benefits them.