I'm curious why Pompeo is choosing to do this now, rather than a year ago. Only 11 days until the next administration, or is he still thinking about transitioning to a second Trump term?
They will, they have no choice. The Biden Administration isn't in charge of the China policy, that's a US Government level comprehensive strategic shift that began well before Trump. The Pentagon overall is more powerful than the US Presidency, and all the agencies that matter are on board the China confrontation approach. There are strategic policies that persist regardless of administrations, for example that was the case when the US was dealing with the USSR, and it's going to be the case when dealing with China going forward. It doesn't matter who is elected President on this policy matter, the only thing that changes are the more subtle details (and some of the drama, as you noted).
Seems the reason why Biden prefers General Austin over Flournoy. Biden needs a Def secretary that will represent Biden's interest in the Pentagon, not the other way around.
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-japan-usa-taiwan-china-id...
He's boxing in the next administration.
Trump sucks up to people when he thinks it might do him some good. He ignored Khashoggi's killing to keep a good relationship with MBS, he said he "fell in love" with Kim Jong-un to try to get him to stop testing nuclear missiles, and he shut up about Taiwan and Hong Kong and Xinjiang because he wanted a better trade deal. (Shutting up about them might have been an unofficial part of the dealmaking -- threats behind closed doors.)
Some of it was clearly amateurish. Trump is a shallow man, and assumes others are as susceptible to flattery as he is. He didn't get far with Putin or Kim, but he actually didn't give away much -- US policy towards them is tougher now than it was four years ago. And the stuff with Saudi Arabia has worked out very well, though it does make my stomach turn a bit.
Now, though, the Trump administration is in the "nothing to lose by doing what we want, and nothing to gain by doing things we'd rather not". So they can piss off Xi, and do something nice for Taiwan.
Since the administration is outgoing and the new admin will likely take a new tact with regards to trade and labor, might as well throw this on the table and make the new administration have to roll back recognition of Taiwan if they don't like it.
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-biden-pompeo/pompeo-m...
Pompeo has 2024 presidential dream.
Or deep principles like yours, glorifying academic credentials. Must have been terrible when the presidency went from the Harvard Law alumni and professor to the guy who wouldn’t release his transcripts from a second-rate business school.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/global-opinions/mike...
(To be clear, I don't mean this as a judgment of either strategy, just an answer to the question of why it matters.)
For what it's worth, even the US would struggle to invade Taiwan militarily.
If it is Taiwan v. China, Taiwan will lose. The only hope they have is support from someone with a strong enough navy that China can't blockade them.
I also have doubts that the 'mass invasion via a few possible beaches after 3 weeks of obvious preparation which allow Taiwan ample time to mobilize its reserves' is the only relevant invasion scenario. At the very least, paratroopers can play a major role, and I can think of a few other ideas to spice it up. These can be defended against if Taiwan is seriously motivated - that's the big question mark.
Among my Taiwanese friends, almost a third are married to Mainlanders (and even more have dated).
Even if this doesn't lead to reunification, at the very least it'll maintain the status quo.
This is not a decision driven by foreign policy - this is a decision driven by domestic political squabbles.
It's similar to an administration running a deficit for four years, losing an election, and then having their party suddenly rediscover the virtues of fiscal responsibility and balanced budgets... Only to forget it the next time they take power.
[1] As you pointed out, if he did, he would have made this decision years ago.
But he isn't above partisanship.
This relatively minor decision is now politically difficult to reverse, and the current administration won't have to deal with any diplomatic fallout. And the next administration doesn't need to burn political capital. All while incrementally pushing forward America's foreign policy objectives of formalizing Taiwan as the independent country its been for decades.