Early clinical trial shows anti-depressant prevents hospitalization from Covid
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Executive Director Steve Kirsch wrote this post on the most promising early treatments and CETF feels Ivermectin and Fluvoximine are the two most promising which they are currently funding studies on. He's continuing to update this post almost daily. As of now, the data is still insufficient to be conclusive (which he highlights) but I appreciate they are sharing these kind of insights from the front lines, at least for those capable of understanding the nature of evolving research and the associated uncertainties. Of particular interest, he links to Washington University's large-population, remote trial of fluvoximine that's free and anyone can apply and participate from home.
https://www.quora.com/What-is-the-current-treatment-for-Covi...
There are several existing drugs which have been found to have modulatory effects on early COVID infections. The key word here is "early", as most of them only have a significant impact before the infection gets out of control.
Keep in mind that Hydroxychloroquine is one of the existing drugs discovered to have some effect on early infections, but it clearly failed to have much impact on late-stage infections.
The study authors were careful to exclude severe or late-stage infections from their trial to avoid similar failures:
> Participants were community-living, nonhospitalized adults with confirmed severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 infection, with COVID-19 symptom onset within 7 days and oxygen saturation of 92% or greater.
SSRIs aren't all interchangeable, especially when it comes to side effects. Fluvoxamine is very different than other SSRIs because it has significant effects at the sigma-1 receptor. The only other SSRI with significant sigma-1 activity is Sertraline, but it has the opposite effect at sigma-1.
However, it's possible that the anti-COVID properties are unrelated to Fluvoxamine's actions at the serotonin transporter or the sigma-1 receptor. We just don't know.
We don't even know if sigma-1 is responsible for the effects observed, but it wouldn't make sense to give someone Fluoxetine instead of Fluvoxamine (which is also widely available), especially when it would require overdose levels of Fluoxetine to achieve similar sigma-1 effects.
More numbers available in the full text here: https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/24508523/
In this case, fluvoxamine pharmacology is pretty clean and there is experimental evidence only for binding to sigma-1 receptor in addition to SERT (also to a whole bunch of CYP enzymes).
Unfortunately the function of sigma-1 is not well understood but it affects calcium signalling in intracellular compartments where covid-19 replicates
Do you mind sharing your evidence that HCQ helps with early infections? Because I know many studies that showed no benefit, for example:
https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/nejmoa2016638
That is one of many studies.
Read what the title says and read the short paper. It has zero references to results of use in patients other than referring to a news release. There is link that it is being used in clinical trials, but no results.
We know HCQ does not do anything for Covid after hundreds of studies. It is time to move on. Focus on other potential treatments.
(And now https://c19study.com/ ?)
Sadly, I only have been able to find this as criticism :
https://sciencebasedmedicine.org/hcqtrial-com-astroturf-and-...
Consider reading the IDSA (Infectious Disease Society of America) guidelines. They get updated fairly regularly and are composed of the boots on the ground infectious disease specialist physicians who are trying to help people.
https://www.idsociety.org/practice-guideline/covid-19-guidel...
Unfortunately, HCQ became politicized which added a bunch of noise. There are a lot of people who are invested in being right for various reasons rather than trying to find the truth, and many of these websites are biased.
For what it's worth, I am a physician who prescribed HCQ to patients in March (with appropriate informed consent from pts/families) when he had no other idea of treatment options based on the original study which purported to show decreased viral load. It became obvious that it didn't matter whether patients got it or not in my experience (some got better and some died whether or not they got it), numerous studies then confirmed this. Most if not all hospitals were trying it with the first wave back in Jan-March and then we stopped using it when data came out that it didn't change anything. Then, things got crazy because it became promoted by certain politicians (this happened when any physician with experience had already realized it was a placebo) AND then there was a big scandal where a paper was published showing increased mortality that based on falsified data and later retracted.
Currently beside fluvoxamine, there is research being done on colchicine (usually used for gout), ivermectin (controversial because the main people promoting it believe so strongly in it that they flat out say on their website it is unethical to perform randomized control trials to study it at this point, which is bonkers), various vitamins have been proposed.
The study claims they do reduce mortality. It is, however, a non-reviewed preprint.
There's also this point of view :
https://freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/3858145/posts
A later, more polished and detailed version in French :
https://www.agoravox.fr/tribune-libre/article/traitements-a-...
However, while I had found these arguments compelling, the issue was that they took the effectiveness of HCQ as a starting point. Which just seems to go against the available evidence at this point.
There remains no studies with large sample sizes done as far as I know with HCQ+zinc given as a prophylactic measure immediately upon first exposure.
EDIT: It's also worth mentioning that this isn't some crank theory about COVID. It is well known that zinc inhibits replication of RNA virus, giving the immune system more time to respond. I used to get colds 5-6 times a year, and the flu almost every year. When I learned about this effect zinc has, I started taking mega doses of zinc upon exposure, whether I'm close to someone known to be sick, flying through airports, or just caught in cold weather. I have not had cold or flu symptoms since I started this regimen about 2 years ago. Of course that is just an anecdote. There are, IIRC, observational studies showing this effect across larger populations.
If, however, you want to tell me that I should be using it now, because of a proposed mechanism and theoretical benefit, by using that logic why shouldn't I be giving my patients all other vitamins/supplements/medications that have been variously proposed and have their own believers?
Aside from HCQ+zinc, what other cheap, low risk interventions do you propose be given and studied?
(edit: additional thoughts) If you don't have any others, than I suggest you reevaluate why you think HCQ+zinc is unique (it's not). If you do, then you'll have a list of them and probably a list of reasons for each and a ranking of which are the most promising and which are the least. When you do this, it forces you to critically think about how best to rank these and how that ranking might change with evidence. Then it forces you to study the evidence.
In an above post I mentioned that I did give HCQ to patients in the hospital back in March when it was the only thing that had ANY evidence (and the evidence was poor, but it was all they had). It made no difference, and it may have caused some deaths due to QTc prolongation (personally I believe it is very safe and I've taken it for malarial prophylaxis before).
edit: (I removed a snarky line, apologies)
Believe it or not, fluvoxamine isn't even approved by the FDA for depression. It probably works, but it's only labeled for OCD (https://www.accessdata.fda.gov/drugsatfda_docs/label/2017/02...). Usually, we'll preserve it for more refractory cases of OCD since it tends to have more side effects and interactions than other SSRIs.
>Findings In this randomized trial that included 152 adult outpatients with confirmed COVID-19 and symptom onset within 7 days, clinical deterioration occurred in 0 patients treated with fluvoxamine vs 6 (8.3%) patients treated with placebo over 15 days, a difference that was statistically significant.
It honestly worries me how quick people are to jump on these band wagons. Call me when you've at least got 100 cases to review.
Not saying this is a result that should be taken as definite, but it's strong enough to warrant further looking into this (which was never really true for hydroxychloroquine).
https://www.connexionfrance.com/French-news/French-researche...
https://www.pfizer.com/news/press-release/press-release-deta....
[1] https://www.cdc.gov/chickenpox/outbreaks/downloads/appx-f-in...
Analysis of the data indicates a vaccine efficacy rate of 95% (p<0.0001) in participants without prior SARS-CoV-2 infection (first primary objective) and also in participants with and without prior SARS-CoV-2 infection (second primary objective), in each case measured from 7 days after the second dose. The first primary objective analysis is based on 170 cases of COVID-19, as specified in the study protocol, of which 162 cases of COVID-19 were observed in the placebo group versus 8 cases in the BNT162b2 group. Efficacy was consistent across age, gender, race and ethnicity demographics. The observed efficacy in adults over 65 years of age was over 94%.
It would be more interesting to look at (say) NHS data. That's the quick way to avoid this sort of guessing...
Don't get me wrong, this whole thing is a fucking mess.
I haven't seen a reliable study that shows HCQ is effective. I'd be happy to see one of you have one? Given the attention paid to this molecule, there should be some nice, randomised control trials with large n numbers.
https://www.reddit.com/r/COVID19/search?q=vitamin+D&restrict...
Deficiency of vitamin D is immune system dysfunction.
There's no single answer. Vitamin D is basically a panacea, but for some reason most medical professionals don't know. Modern western medicine is on the whole ignorant of the role of vitamin deficiencies in disease.
https://www.nhs.uk/conditions/vitamins-and-minerals/vitamin-... https://www.nhs.uk/conditions/coronavirus-covid-19/people-at...
So can the conclusion be that vitamin D does not work as expected? Or is the conclusion that still not enough people are taking vitamin D, and its usefulness should be better communicated?
Vitamin D has shown signs that it slows down / makes covid less deadly.
Because we don't understand: who is taking it, in what amounts, local weather, what the numbers would be without it we can't assume anything from them struggling.
Another thing that is tricky is that it really depends how much you need to take on what your levels are personally. We know that the amounts they recommend are completely long term safe for everyone and long term good enough to avoid severe deficiency. But for most people there will still be insuficiency - the necessary average is actually around 2000 IU (for some people it should be up to 4000 IU, others less)
Are you saying the NHS is struggling with their doctors publishing dangerous recommendations? I’m not sure what you’re implying.
> Just over two-thirds of Canadians (68%) had blood concentrations of vitamin D over 50 nmol/L -- a level that is sufficient for healthy bones for most people. About 32% of Canadians were below the cut-off. About 10% of Canadians were below the cut-off of 30 nmol/L -- a level that is considered a deficiency.
In Canada, everyone is advised to discuss it with their doctors in relation to the winter season. My doctor tests it with my routine blood work. Many people take a supplement over the winter, especially those with darker skin. And people over 50 have a blanket recommendation to take a 400 IU dose daily year-round.
To be clear, if you live in the northern hemisphere, you should be taking vitamin D. It's cheap and at worst harmless. But that's not the same as saying it will improve the outcome of covid patients.
Oral vitamin D has been shown to be ineffective at this point, but this isn't surprising: it takes a long time of sustained oral supplementation to raise levels.
Then there's a whole lot of evidence showing correlation, but as you point out, low vitamin D is an indicator of frailty. This is much weaker evidence.
I think it's likely that taking oral vitamin D before infection probably improves outcomes somewhat.
> Of 50 patients treated with calcifediol, one required admission to the ICU (2%), while of 26 untreated patients, 13 required admission (50 %) p value X2 Fischer test p < 0.001.
Strengths: Randomized, very strong effect, strongly statistically significant.
Weaknesses: single trial, single center, relatively small sample, not blinded.
https://pmj.bmj.com/content/early/2020/11/12/postgradmedj-20...
> Greater proportion of vitamin D-deficient individuals with SARS-CoV-2 infection turned SARS-CoV-2 RNA negative with a significant decrease in fibrinogen on high-dose cholecalciferol supplementation.
Strengths: Randomized, blinded trial
Weaknesses: single trial, single center, relatively small sample, secondary outcome measure
Half true, you can take too much [0], it's just that it either has to build up over a long time or be from dosages far larger than you can buy without a prescription.
[0] https://www.healthline.com/nutrition/vitamin-d-side-effects
https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.11.16.20232397v...
(Yes, the RCT uses cholecalciferol instead of calcifediol, so the reason why the intervention did not work may be that its a bit late. Yes, the Spanish trial had extremely good results, https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7456194/ but it looked unusual (100% adherence / no dropouts). Ultimately we still don't know, which is appalling. We need better ways to conduct RCTs cheaply and efficiently!)
My point is that its important for people to have an accurate picture of what is the probability of it working, to have a good "feel" of what the likelihood of a good outcome is. Unfortunately social media is providing a skewed picture.
I'm not sure what mechanism would ensure that people get an accurate picture.
Vitamin D depletes Vitamin A and magnesium, get the former from foods and supplement the latter as magnesium glycinate and/or chloride.
Other common & relevant deficiencies are boron and zinc, especially zinc.
https://www.devaboone.com/post/vitamin-d-part-2-shannon-s-st...
This post and related posts about vitamin D were discussed on HN. See:
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC5541280/#:~:tex....
Doctors correcting vitamin D levels are finding 10k IU is a good starter dose and that is often insufficient to arrive at optimal levels.
https://jeffchen.dev/posts/Vitamin-D-And-Heart-Palpitations/
Dr Boone posted on HN, and claimed that vitamin K2 would not counteract high dose vitamin D:
https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=24262492
I am not aware of any randomized controlled trial of vitamin K2 for protection against vitamin D toxicity.
Now, a lot of people are deficient -- probably more now than usual due to the lock down because people aren't getting out much, so people are getting less sun exposure. So I tend to get downvoted when I say things like "If you are deficient, you should redress that. If you are not, extra Vitamin D seems to do nothing and is potentially bad for you (because it is fat soluble and you can hit toxic levels in your system if you overconsume)."
I think there may somewhat less excitement about it because it helps if you are deficient but not if you are not, so it fails to serve as a drug substitute. People tend to not get excited about the idea that treating nutritional deficiencies helps shore up your body's ability to fight disease, even in cases where that deficiency is fairly widespread and the disease in question is fairly deadly.
Hoomans: Not the most logical species.
Low-hanging, non-risky fruit first.
It pretty much is a slam dunk solved problem to say "If you are deficient in X, redress that." We know how to redress a vitamin D deficiency pretty confidently, simply and in a straight forward fashion.
I lost several dress sizes without trying by redressing other things, primarily nutrient deficiencies. I focused on eating an aggressively nutritious diet to redress a long list of deficiencies rooted in a genetic disorder that causes gut dysfunction.
So my experience fits with the general idea that "Solving obesity is harder than it looks and the solution may be something non obvious in any given case." Maybe our mental models of what is going on there will evolve and what I am saying will be "the obvious answer" to future generations, but it's not what is currently believed to be what works to solve obesity.
The current mantra is "Calories in. Calories out." and leads to metrics like "Eat less and exercise more" and some people find that wholly unworkable or unsustainable for various reasons.
Including taking your vitamins, even if you don't normally.
One of the problems is that is an inherently hard sell. People are terrible at measuring the disasters that should have happened but didn't.
If you convinced everyone to take their Vitamin D supplements, you would have an extremely hard time measuring the deaths that didn't happen but should have and an even harder time convincing the general public you weren't making up BS as click bait.
This is the bane of my existence. I have a serious medical condition and I know what the path not taken is supposed to look like and I've been getting better for nearly two decades when the condition is supposed to involve a steady and irreversible decline and I get told all the time that I am full of baloney and I can't possibly know that what I'm doing is effective and "X number of years of steady forward progress is just a wild coincidence -- stranger things have happened" and on and on.
Even people who believed me and took my advice have told me "I gave x, y and z nutritional things to my child and they are in the ER less but they aren't on less medication." by which this person meant the child's maintenance drugs were the same. But they implicitly failed to count the fewer antibiotics, steroids and other emergency treatment drugs as "less medication."
If you normally are in the ER every couple of months and need antibiotics for a month afterwards, being in the ER less constitutes a very significant reduction in use of medication. So this person was seeing results and going "But my child still needs just as much maintenance drugs, so the drug use is the same as before" when it absolutely wasn't the same as before.
So what you will see here is that the general public is much happier if you can tell them "X number of people were saved by a vaccine/antibiotic/ventilator/hospitalization" than if you tell them "We convinced the entire nation to take its vitamins and saw a dramatic reduction in incidence of disease."
If you tell them the second thing, the entire world will rise up and go "You are so full of shit. That's just a coincidence man. We didn't even need to take our vitamins. It just fucking died out for no apparent reason and you made me waste all this money on vitamins, you shit head, you."
So I've mostly quit trying to talk about "Things you -- yes, you as an individual -- can do to try to cope with this global pandemic." because I'm tired of being attacked with bullshit accusations of "practicing medicine without a license" and other crapola of that ilk.
I'm pretty damn sure I will survive this -- unless I stupidly try to be helpful, in which case an angry mob may decide I am somehow to blame for something. So: Whatever. "You fools do whatever the fuck makes sense to you and leave me the hell alone."
The issue is further complicated by the interaction with other micronutrients such as calcium and vitamin K. Vitamin D intake has to be adjusted based on those as well. So it's tough to make a blanket recommendation for everyone.
In this situation, I would say that anyone who is high risk and has no affirmative reason to believe Vitamin D is contra indicated should consider trying to take a small supplement and/or get some sunlight regularly.
For optimal absorption, you need to take Vitamin D, Vitamin K and Calcium together. Some Calcium supplements include those two vitamins.
For optimal results, do not consume calcium and iron together. This means if you are trying to improve your nutritional status via diet, do not eat high iron foods (like beef, broccoli) with high calcium foods (like cheese, milk). They interfere with each other in terms of absorption.
If you are in a really fragile state of health, all these details and more (such as bioavailability) matter a helluva lot. If you are not in a really fragile state of health, you may find that you don't need to care so much all these pesky details.
Anyone who is really interested in their own welfare can and should start a food and symptom journal and read, read, read about health stuff (and learn how to sort the wheat from the chaff). If you do that, you can get to a point of noticing symptoms of deficiency at an early stage.
I do this regularly and adjust my diet accordingly.
But these are not answers people want to hear. They want a pill, a shot, a surgery, a solution with a really big and obvious and immediate change so they can look at it and go "I did a thing and got a result." They don't want to hear "You need to track it over time and see how you feel in a week or a month to have any real idea what helps."
It's also inherently hard to isolate nutritional stuff. If you make any change at all to your diet, you have probably made multiple different changes.
The way to isolate it is to start with supplements, stick to your normal diet, make no more than one change per week and keep a journal so you can track it and see what happens.
Anything that has any health benefit will have side effects. Antibiotics routinely cause diarrhea and that's one of the more common side effects of alternative remedies, yet if I tell people that many of them will use that as an excuse to say "Oh, it has side effects. Nope. That's a big fat nope for me. I'm not doing that." even though it's the same side effect that antibiotics have and they wouldn't hesitate to take those.
There's a lot of ignorance and prejudice and inherent resistance to resolving medical things nutritionally. In spite of study after study after study saying "Nutrition and exercise mitigate every known deadly medical condition ever in the history of human kind" when the rubber hits the road, people hand wave off nutrition as not important and "not something that will cure cancer, you dumbass!" and stuff like that.
But zinc is another thing that looks promising from what I gather.
A potential mechanism for immune modulation is σ-1 receptor (S1R) agonism. The S1R is an endoplasmic reticulum chaperone protein with various cellular functions, including regulation of cytokine production through its interaction with the endoplasmic reticulum stress sensor inositol-requiring enzyme 1α (IRE). Previous studies have shown that fluvoxamine, a selective serotonin reuptake inhibitor (SSRI) with high affinity for the S1R reduced damaging aspects of the inflammatory response during sepsis through the S1R-IRE1 pathway, and decreased shock in murine sepsis models.
(e.g. i suspect a tiny dose of antiviral or synthetic antibody would be effective for prophylaxis or early treatment. By the time somebody is seriously ill they are sick from the cytokine storm and possibly clearing the virus doesnt change the course of the disease.)
If you flip a coin 10 times, there is less than a 5% chance you will get 3 or fewer tails -- so if you do, that looks "statistically significant" that you have a weighted coin (which still doesn't guarantee it).
But if 500 people in different places flip a coin 10 times, what are the chances at least one of them will get 3 or fewer tails? Oops. It doesn't mean your chances of having a weighted coin went up.
It's just sloppily written title that ends up asserting something that is baseless, misleading, and untrue.