Signal gaining popularity in India after WhatsApp policy changes
economictimes.indiatimes.com
economictimes.indiatimes.com
WhatsApp isn't just a messaging app. With its stories and statuses, it's a mini social network in and of itself.
Beyond the HackerNews crowd, most people don't care about privacy. They care about features. Signal won't be able to compete with WhatsApp unless it builds some of those features into its app.
Edit - HackerNews crowd seems to get tunnel visioned when it comes to tech products. Every response below is something on the lines of "I don't use stories" or "None or my contacts use stories".
I don't use stories either. And most millenials don't use it unless they are extroverts. But we make a small percentage of their audience.
Take a look at boomer WhatsApp in India. Every single boomer shares stories with images of Gods or daily morning blessings, where they went, what they cooked etc. The network effects are too strong. Nobody wants to miss out on the stories of their grandchildren's birthday or their nephew's marriage.
Even I wish that there was an en-masse migration from WhatsApp to Signal. But that's just a HackerNews pipe dream. Not happening.
It's obvious that Signal is going to release stories. It will just be in a privacy protecting manner when they're ready.
Do people really use those?
No one in my contacts ever use it, me included.
Take a look at boomer WhatsApp in India. Every single boomer shares stories with images of Gods or daily morning blessings, where they went, what they cooked etc.
Maybe like 3-5 people use stories regularly. I only swipe to the "Status" tab to get rid of the little notification dot.
Those features are not standing in the way of user's migration to signal app as far as I can tell.
I’m personally involved in migration of 3 groups, two India-US, one US. Most had never installed Signal.
It’ll happen, it’ll just take some time.
I really do not agree with this often-made assertion. The main difference between the HN crowd and the general public is that we are more likely to understand how, and how extensively, our privacy is being compromised. We are used to considering computer logs and monitoring as very real (because we work with them / create them); the general public not nearly so much.
And I'm not saying that all people who work with IT are going to be protective of their privacy. Just saying that they are more likely to have an informed understanding of the mechanics of computer monitoring/tracking from which to develop possible concerns.
Why? Some don't believe these invasions negatively impact them personally. But I think, largely, it's about misplaced (IMO) trust - they trust Facebook et al not to abuse their privacy or "do anything evil", and perhaps worse, they trust all organs of the government completely and totally. Any suggestion otherwise is waved away as "who cares?", or dismissed as a conspiracy theory (yes, even post-Snowden).
Large sections of the media are certainly part of the problem too (as we are seeing for so many things) - some serious, privacy-related stories are either not covered at all, or covered with pretty blatant, extreme bias.
It won't be sudden but is is happening. And it is only going to be accelerated by the footgun behaviour going around on twitter and Facebook this week
This I certainly don't agree. Telegram would have been the most popular app in India if this was true. It is only recently that WA has come close and slightly more in some cases.
And all this without taking into account features that can make the product even more pervasive (I'm thinking payments)
The problem is that once a product becomes the de facto solution and everyone is onboard, is hard to change it, specially one with network effects. If it wasn't we would be using e.g. other search engines, wouldn't be?
Finally, I'd say the announcement of this change is perfectly timed: just after Christmas and in the middle of a pandemic. By the time we meet again with our extended families and we do the de rigueur holidays' technical support this change will have been forgotten by most people ;)
Also, installing an alternative doesn't make you lose contact with anyone. You can set up Signal and make yourself available there without removing Whatsapp.
Many people slowly stopped using Facebook without ever deleting it. Still has the same effect.
Mine asks me to set up sandboxed browsers/block scripts etc.
What we need additionally in this case more than the "WhatsApp but better" argument is continually making people aware of the incumbent's behavior, since WhatsApp is well entrenched, to cast doubts in people's minds.
SMS lost because it was costly and lacked features. What will make WhatsApp lose?
It would have to be something fundamental. Any new feature that gains significant popularity can easily be added to WhatsApp (e.g. stories); in addition to having network effects working in their favour.
Whatsapp will be inclined to bow to one and then many governments and create backdoors and also wants access to content as part of its business model. They will eventually lose a lot of data that was supposed to be e2e encrypted, people will be upset, and FB's focus will be explaining how its not responsible for the damages.
It was the first Universal messaging app across multiple platforms. It worked on a lot of obscure mobile OS’ and devices that didn’t have something like BBM. The ability to connect was novel.
Today’s world is different, it might not be easy to build the next WhatsApp, but technologies are being adopted quicker than WhatsApp was.
If people can learn WhatsApp, and the first app they used a lot was WhatsApp, they will learn other things.
The real deal is the network effect, and managing to mobilize enough friend networks.
Plus, covid forced everyone digital and I had many ask if Zoom was safe to install on their phones along with banking apps because China.
And a privacy service and app I built has highest number of users from India followed by Iran. In my interacting with them, it is clear government bans and privacy concerns due to BigTech were major drivers for them to seek such tools. These people are barely tech savvy right now, but that is going to change.
The thing is, as mobile phones and connectivity become more ubiquitous, people are only getting more familiar with tools they can use to make those devices / internet work for them. This trend, though small in absolute numbers, is only growing.
I'm not saying they're definitely going to overtake WhatsApp, but they've found a niche, are slowly expanding from there, and are doing so by implementing desired features. That's how most social networks have gotten where they are. There's no reason why Signal's current feature set is forever set in stone.
I hope Signal stays true to its roots and doesn't give in to more bloated crap like the other messaging platforms but unfortunately I'm not optimistic in that front...
Here's a thing I don't understand - why is everyone obsessed with copycatting?
By aiming for feature parity you, as a business or service, are letting a competitor dictate your roadmap. And what's worse, with features they have already shipped.
Isn't that a rather depressing vision?
That said, it'll never be just feature parity - Signal's moat compared to Facebook products will always be better privacy.
The internet kind of functions differently in some parts of the world, and if you've spent time in those regions, you see it's pretty aligned with what you've described. Like, there is a reason that Facebook bought WhatsApp to begin with. Those "ecosystems" are incredibly valuable.
Now, the thing that makes me open to being wrong? The absolute horror of a reputation that Facebook has as of late. I think if this was the debate a few years ago, it'd be much harder for Signal to pull people away, but now...
Go, Signal, go.
But Whatsapp got where it is through 1 simple feature: it discovered other whatsapp users through your phone book so that made it easy to start using it. Install the app, and others would find you. That feature has since been copied by world + dog. Telegram, Signal, etc. do the same. Now that both are getting to the hundreds of millions of users (telegram got there ages ago), that safe moat that whatsapp enjoyed is not so safe anymore. I know non technical users that are very eager to escape Facebook's clutches that already deleted their facebook profiles and installed alternative chat clients. Moving over is easier than ever.
Anyway, I'm old enough to remember reluctantly joining the msn network because a lot of people I knew started using that. ICQ, AOL, MSN, Yahoo Messenger, etc. all used to be popular and now are pretty much gone. Whatsapp can easily join those ranks. There's nothing inevitable about its perpetual monopoly on communication. Nothing whatsoever.
If anything, Facebook seems in a hurry to blow its feet off with misguided/dubious decisions on privacy, user hostile actions, and increasing likelihood of having to deal with anti trust legislation in multiple of its markets. It's not helping their case. Every time they are in the news it seems to have a negative tone and some of their users act on it. Facebook is being arrogant.
Signal is a breath of fresh air in this space. Structured as a foundation, OSS client and server (unlike most other things out there). Apparently, Elon Musk recommending it the other day caused a nice influx of users.
Signal on the other hand doesn't even attempt any of that: it solves messaging with no perspective on third-party service integration.
I just want a solid texting platform, that's it. So far I've been happy, even with a few unnecessary updates like stickers (?!) and disappearing messages (ugh).
Most people want features, convenience,… real stuff that feels like feature, instead of abstract concepts.
People have a strong desire to imitate and one-up others in their social group.
If you build a feature that even 1% of users self-start to use, then the social network can snow ball that with the right mechanics. And these feature need only be used by 20-30% of users for it to be considered a success. Every user is not expected to use all features.
I'm pretty bearish on Signal for this reason. (even though I use it personally)
The playbook for unlocking adoption would be via a 'minority rule' where Signal users refuse to talk to people on WA, but I don't see that happening anytime soon.
What would you think?
That somebody certainly values the choice of platform higher than your convenience to chat with him or her.
Constant growth and expansion isn't always a good thing and IMO it applies here.
Because ideally one doesn't want to be forced to donate data to Facebook because of WhatsApps network effect?
But this is also not a winner take all market as I think of it. I am a heavy user of telegram and massive broadcasts happen on Telegram. College students, Twitter handles banned on Twitter etc. have switched to telegram. You subscribe to a channel of a banned user and there is nothing Telegram can do about it.
Signal is especially popular among my political activist friends and few other friends.
Kik remains popular for some narrow cases I will not mention here.
I believe in this one you are mistaken.
Adblocking has gone from fringe to mainstream in just a few years. Tracker blocking and in general putting actual value on one's data is going through the same, only faster.
One piece of data: more than 80% of requests coming on our website disallow tracking. Respecting privacy as a concept has already gone mainstream, the only question is how far "normal" people are willing to take it and what tradeoffs they choose to make in the long run.
I suspect it’s a little more complicated though. Some of the WhatsApp groups are quite fatiguing to belong to due to politics and quite frankly unbearable individuals and this allows people to have an excuse to exit them without having half of your contact list trying to get hold of you and drag you back in again.
As for features, absolutely no one I have seen locally here use anything other than basic use cases that signal supports.
Me, I just uninstalled it. I’m going to see if I need to replace it. It appears after all that everyone I need to talk to so far uses iMessage.
I think the ratio of people who are technically literate is growing. So even if true, its still important. Think of how many non-technical people are trying to push their kids towards coding, in part, due to the unavoidable evidence that techies are making more loot that lawyers and doctors. Its a top profession for middle class now.
To many that is the sticky part though.
>Beyond the HackerNews crowd, most people don't care about privacy.
I thought so two...but there does seem to be some ground level chatter on this among young non-techies.
Most of us is somewhat related to the software industry. We know what's the worst thing could happen when we don't care about privacy.
On the other hand, 90% of people be like "so what? should i throw my phone to the lake because they changed privacy policy?". I really like Signal, but yeah. WhatsApp at the another level that couldn't be changed in some privacy assaulting policy changes.
Doesn't matter much to me. Getting my immediate family to switch and then having them encourage their contacts to adopt Signal (even if only as a secondary app) is a small victory in my mind.
That's just not true. It was my non-tech friends who suggested we move off WhatsApp. And zero objections from anyone in my WhatsApp groups.
Now WhatsApp is on a similar suicide mission.
> Signal saw 2,200 installs on India's app stores on Wednesday up 38% from 1,600 installs in the week ended December 30, according to mobile intelligence firm Sensor Tower. Signal saw about 51,000 installs in December, up 11% from 46,000 in November.
Its going to take a while to catch up I think, but:
> Harada declined to provide numbers, citing company policy, saying the Sensor Tower data was “directionally correct, but generally the numbers are off by a few magnitudes.”
The only fair way to look at it is on a percentage basis (ie. of all chat apps installed last week, what percentage was whatsapp, and what percentage was signal?)
I would be shocked if Signal has even 1% of installations in india.
WhatsApp is literally the internet.
Sadly, when you're poor you couldn't care less about net neutrality if it means saving some money.
https://mobile.twitter.com/signalapp/status/1347693761044701...
Also in France in Play Store, Signal is #1 now. In Trending, Signal is #1 and Telegram #3.
Check for your country on: https://play.google.com/store/apps/top
I feel most startups sleep hard on the massive market they're missing by skipping on SA so much.
No one had ever heard of WhatsApp once. But now billions of people use it, why?
I mentioned the new WhatsApp TOS to my tech and non-tech friends and I've managed to move all of those I've talked about it, or at least have them install it and get it set up. I still have to find a convincing argument for the least tech oriented people I know, but moving a billion people over to another app is done like that, one friend at a time.
I don’t really use whatsapp now but I have a lot of convo history there. And I also use FB messenger/instagram dm’s, but not for important chats.
In that context, is keeping whatsapp for the old message history basically fine? I wouldn’t use it for a new important chat going forward.
I see India becoming more and more similar to Russia, especially since Adityanath is likely next PM candidate, and since opposition is not strong enough, being stuck at 90s with minority appeasement tactics and almost centered on single family, the majority of people will think internet censorship is good for them.
Edit: I am not a "indian liberal" or right winger either, just a neutral look about the state of affairs.
Rajkot's police chief said the kids were not studying for the upcoming exam, and they were playing PUBG. (Edit) So he banned the game for the entire city and arrested people for playing it. Another ex-politician was dragged through a court case for making fun of a judge in a photo. Every now and then, the entire internet is cut off in many parts of India for some silly excuse or another.
It's too late for the world now, though, 99.99% of people will give in to the FB threat, FB will be free to use that data - which takes 3-5 years to become stale. So as far as FB is concerned, they have received everything they need, and have that many years to manage the next fight for dominance.
But perhaps if Apple somehow introduces a "contacts" sandbox (e.g., have a contact chooser like the file chooser) and google is forced to follow suite, there won't be another one like it.
Edit: Innovation can be as well business model that does not involve invading user privacy or in other words privacy friendly business model that does not rely on advertising.
I'll have a hard time persuading family groups to move though, WhatsApp and Facebook are cultural touchstones for them they won't see any point in moving