>It's as though the pro-lockdown side can't accept that sometimes tragedy happens and we're relatively powerless to stop it

There are multiple countries (in both northern and southern hemisphere, islands and mainlands) that have eliminated community transmission of covid. It is wrong to say we are powerless to stop it. It is indisputable that if you and your family stay home, you will not get COVID. Likewise, common sense dictates that more people will stay home if required to do so by their government.

You are trying to make the argument, absent data, that the economic and social/emotional impacts of 'stay at home' orders are worse than the economic and social/emotional impacts of uncontrolled viral infection and death.