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Comment by dralley | Hacker News Reader

Is there any conceivable good reason for the value to have tripled in 3 months, or is this a cycle of FOMO hysteria just like last time?

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Historically low interest rates, QE, huge deficits. Same reason the stock market and real estate are going up as the economy tanks from a pandemic. Finance is completely decoupled from reality at this point. It’s like a big MMO.

The rate of production of new BTC was reduced in the last halving in May, so demand is chasing less supply. https://digitalik.net/btc/sf_model

Is there any conceivable good reason for the value to have tripled in 3 months, or is this a cycle of FOMO hysteria just like last time?

I doubt money from MicroStrategy, Mass Mutual, Square, hedge funds and other corporate treasuries are due to FOMO…

The same reason it always goes up. Supply < Demand.

Interest is at all time low in europe, and people are getting COVID cash. The ECB is also "creating" cash to ensure the euro is stable....

So if you have a lot of euros on your account not making any money, you either go to the stock market (Thats why its going up, especially the visible stock such as Tesla) and things like Bitcoin...

The problem is, at some point it will come back down again, and a lot of people will lose money.

Its all network effects, and people talking to each other about bitcoin and stocks and people jumping in... It starts to look like 1930 again.

Maybe people don't want to leave all their savings in USD because with all the stimulus money, there will be some inflation?

It is obviously the latter. For those who want to double their profits when it was at $10k - $19k.

What comes up must come down. Question is when?

> What comes up must come down

Famous quote with lots of counterexamples. Peter Lynch provides multiple conterexamples to many similar stock market quotes in an interview.

There's a direct correlation in the last 3 months between billions of printed tether and btc price. In the last few months they printed 11 billion fake dollars. Click "3 months" here and look at the charts of tether market cap (how much they print) vs Price (BTC), it's an exact correlation:

https://coinmarketcap.com/currencies/tether/

Maybe I'm just not paying as much attention this time around but it seems much quieter than peak 2017.

Because it is early 2017. Everyone seems to get lost in the huge peaks and valleys and miss the slow growth due to supply impacts. Why did it go up in 2017? IMO the halving in july 2016. Same reason it is going up now, it halved in may 2020 and we are just now seeing the impact.

FOMO and the US giving cash out like crazy. Paypal also has a bitcoin option so that probably opened it to more users too.

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