I am not claiming any expertise here - I majored in Biochemistry but never finished (moved to tech). I do have 14 doctors / geneticist / infection disease specialist in my family that share this view.
I am not claiming any expertise here - I majored in Biochemistry but never finished (moved to tech). I do have 14 doctors / geneticist / infection disease specialist in my family that share this view.
- reporting of the initial outbreak in Wuhan was too slow, but still, many countries acted in time.
- whenever a local outbreak of a similar new disease is reported, all countries should immideately go on an alert level, so that when the disease starts to spread, they can act immediately. If efficient reactions had been taken in January, a lot of things had been easier.
- of course watch international travel closely. If you close down flights, close down all travels. It doesn't make sense to ban flights from China, when the virus was coming to the US from Italy. It doesn't make sense to ban EU travellers but allow them to enter relaying via Turkey. Even better: don't ban flight travel, but test on arrival, make a short quarantine mandatory, that is more effective.
- lock down quickly and hard where neccessary, especial with local outbreaks
and the by far biggest elephant in the room:
- better hygene overall. Everyone should own proper masks, FFP2 masks should be stock piled by the government in generous amounts. Going forward, if you have symptoms of any infectious disease, wear a fucking mask! Even if it is the common cold, there is absolutely no justification to spread them to strangers. Even if it is not a deadly pandemic, infectious diseases could be reduced considerably by masks and hand sanitizing/washing. The yearly flu is deadly enough, there are no reasons to let it spread so freely.
I also hope, it becomes the new default to stay at home and work from there, if you have any symptoms. I don't know how many colds is picked up in the office in previous years.
All the involved should be harshly critisized for that.
However this should not be taken as an excuse to deny all good scientific information we have received and the right measures that have been recommended, especially the overly late committment to masks.
At the end of the day, these are all still political animals.
We still don’t have readily available N95 masks for ‘normal’ prices from reputable vendors.
Why they didn't encourage people to just use makeshift masks, is another discussion entirely.
They correctly estimated that compliance with encouragements would be very low (see e.g. current encouragements not to travel to see family at holidays).
If you tell people something that can keep them safe is available on Amazon for $25, all the encouragement in the world isn't going to keep that product from selling out.
I thought he also qualified his statement then that there was no evidence of wide scale community spread yet, but that might have been a different interview.
Regardless, it does highlight how hard it is to communicate with the public about a topic that is dynamic and fast changing.
[1] https://leadstories.com/hoax-alert/2020/05/fact-check-dr-ant...
One more thing towards rules: it really depends on a society agreeing. Like most societies agree that people should wear pants on the street, woman even shirts. There might be people breaking these rules, but overall society managed to make this a very infrequent thing.
How do you know they have less case because people follow the rules ? I have been in Cambodia and Thailand and people don't really follow the rules there and there is barely any case
What would have been easier? Germany reacted quickly and now have a lot of death
> of course watch international travel closely. If you close down flights, close down all travels
How do you close borders like the France - Switzerland that a lot of people cross everyday to go to work?
> lock down quickly and hard where neccessary, especial with local outbreaks
What do you do after the lockdown if you were not able to make it to to 0 cases?
> Going forward, if you have symptoms of any infectious disease, wear a fucking mask
there is still no proof that mask wearing did reduce the transmission of covid
you make it sounds like you have all the answers but that's not that easy
A few comments to the points you noted.
- Germany reacted at the end of February (I am from Germany), which was pretty late considering the international outbreaks, there were quite a few infections in Germany during February. But for the first wave, Germany reacted just in time to avoid a lot of deaths (<10k), but completely failed at preventing the 2nd wave. But even the first lockdown might have been prevented by acting in early february. Carnival was allowed to take place and it was one major outbreak, the other was Ischg in Austria.
- Borders to France and Swizerland had been eventually closed. When it was pretty late. But I was more referring to the US reaction, which banned travel from China only and much later (to late) from Europe, which is still in place, but allow travel via Turkey, which is what all Europeans going to the US are using.
- If you handle local outbreaks quickly, you can get infections down to 0 in the affected region.
- There is plenty of evidence, that masks reduce the transmission of Covid-19, but I was also speaking in a general sense, as I said "any infectious disease". There is no need to spread the cold or flu as quickly as we used to do. As far as I know, since the pandemic, the flu numbers are down a lot, as hygene works.
This is not true for a country like Germany, you would have to hard lockdown for some time and close all borders, and then verify any person who cross the border, and free move in Europe won't make that possible unless all EU countries do it. If you are an island things gets easier in that matter.
The ONLY country which were able to go to zero after a big outbreak is China
This seems like a logical leap to me. Yes we need to do something to make us less open to viral threats, but you don’t present any evidence that improved computer simulations can be a useful tool in helping develop/test vaccines faster.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Computational_biology
https://a16z.com/2020/06/14/folding-at-home-supercomputer-pr...
https://www.hpcwire.com/2020/06/09/supercomputer-research-re...
https://www.ibm.com/blogs/ibm-anz/supercomputing-a-covid-19-...
https://www.cnn.com/2020/03/19/us/fastest-supercomputer-coro...
A simple search will yield months of reading. Just go to an HPC conference like SCinet (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/SCinet) and you will see besides energy, nukes and AI biological research is a key use of the computing power.
It also does not really seem to be supported by the evidence that things will never get back to normal if we don't do something radically different. We have a vaccine, there is no indication that we can't just distribute it and put this pandemic to bed.
I was talking with a doctor friend that oversees an ambulatory care group for the county, and they were able to allocate vaccines for the EMTs (first-responders).
Over 50% refused to be vaccinated.
Not sure how we overcome that.
I am especially baffled by the anti-vaccination movement, as I grew up in a world where smallpox and polio had been basically erradicated due to vaccinations as were most of the typical childhood diseases. But where all the victims of those diseases were not forgotten yet. There was no doubt whatever to be vaccinated, I still can remember the polio vaccinations I got in school. And those were ridiculously risky compared to a modern Covid-19 vaccination. But overall the vaccinations saved so many more people than they harmed.
One can only hope that the next months will bring a change. On the one side, there will still be many deaths due to Covid-19, as the death spike follows 4-8 weeks after the infection count spike. On the other side, in two months the effect of the vaccinations should become very visible.
The other concern I have are these cases with mild symptoms, but then becomes a psychotic issue several months later.
It seem to affect a small percentage, but a small percent of a big number can still be a big number.
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/12/28/health/covid-psychosis-me...
Do these folks also refuse to wear masks and gloves when doing their job?
I think there's a substantial difference between wearing PPE and vaccination, both on the employer's side as well as the individual employee's perspectives. Mandating proper use of PPE can never have unintended side effects. No adult has ever died from improper use of an n95 face mask or nitrile gloves. The jury on the new vaccines is going to be out for a while on long term effects. It's not reasonable for an employer to require them yet.
Besides, that would spread the legal burden to the employer were something to go wrong.