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> I saw once that the likelihood of a crime is s function of likelihood of getting caught and the severity of the punishment

Citation?

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It sounds like this has been largely debunked, based on the research cited in The Honest Truth about Dishonesty https://www.amazon.com/Honest-Truth-About-Dishonesty-Everyon...

Interesting book, can you share a specific passage that debunks the above?

In practice places like the UAE are examples. Where there is severe punishment for theft. Diamond shops will leave diamonds in front of you while they tend to other customers.

The above was taught during a lecture at business school. A quick search found this link which infers the above along with some interesting other points related to the subject.

"The certainty of being caught is a vastly more powerful deterrent than the punishment"

https://www.google.com/url?q=https://www.ncjrs.gov/pdffiles1...

"Men are not hang'd for stealing Horses, but that Horses may not be stolen"

George Savile, 1st Marquess of Halifax

[0] https://en.wikiquote.org/wiki/George_Savile,_1st_Marquess_of...

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