In Covid Surge, LA hospitals turn away ambulances and put patients in gift shops
latimes.com
latimes.com
If there's any truth to it, I can imagine the hospital's snack/convenience shop is being used. So it's not a neighborhood gift shop but some room in the hospital that sells a branded keychain. Definitely a click-baity title though.
https://www.wired.com/story/are-covid-patients-gasping-it-is...
There are no indications in this story where the capacity is coming from. What percentage of people are in the ICU for other conditions (heart attacks, car crashes, delaying treatment for conditions they needed surgery for months ago) vs infections? What are the percentage for flu, strep and other serious infections vs COVID? There's a lot missing in this article.
>The CEO of the Martin Luther King, Jr. Community Hospital in Los Angeles, Dr. Elaine Batchlor, separately said patients there have spilled over into the gift shop and five tents outside the emergency department.
No, they mostly weren't.
> Why were they dismantled?
They have largely been activated, including ones which while prepared stood empty in the initial, far lower, peak, and many additional ones were set up for this surge.
While California is worse off, the US has a national problem and no region to ship surplus from, even leaving aside the political problems which would add friction if the capacity existed.
The hospital growth thing is a red herring. Gaining +2000 hospital beds (or 20% growth for a lot of areas) means jack diddly squat against a Virus that replicates into the millions.
Its far easier to stay home for Thanksgiving and cut down on the spread, rather than grow hospitals. But of course, we're growing hospitals where we can (moving Navy Hospital Ships, hiring student nurses before they graduate, etc. etc.) But the USA already had a nurse shortage BEFORE COVID19 came around.
There comes a point where there's no point building Hospital beds: we simply don't have enough nurses / doctors in this country to staff them. Even if we include student nurses / doctors.
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In either case: China has the right idea. You stop the spread before it becomes a million cases. You can't just magically grow hospitals and create expert nurses out of thin air.
Free Liberal countries like New Zealand got to stop the exponential growth because their society was more unified and rational about things. Authoritarian wasn't necessary, but its clearly a good cudgel to use in this situation.
And, since the Federal government never stepped up to fund anything, no one is going to bother training personnel that they'll just get rid of in 12 months.
I'm not sure where this idea came from, but I really wish people would start arguing about what Congress actually did rather than making it up, because Congress did step up to fund medical care. The CARES act appropriated $130B for health care providers, including hospitals. The followup appropriations bill allocates $69B for vaccines, testing, health care providers, and mental health.
One might argue that that's not enough money, but at least make the argument that they should have spent more rather than falsely claiming they spent nothing. Congress' direct payments to the healthcare providers in these two bills totaled $199B. Broken down by department, only two agencies are allocated more than $199B next year, the DOD ($695B) and the VA ($243B). And that's just looking at direct payments to medical providers, I didn't even mention the remaining $2.1T from the CARES act.
Training these people requires multi-year funding and commitment to their hiring as well.
There is a lot to blame the federal government for in this pandemic, but the lack of nurses just isn't one. The federal government has very little leverage to increase the supply available, since the vast majority of nurses are employed by the private sector or state systems. Congress could provide more money to underwrite training and nurse salaries, but they'd just be setting up for mass layoffs once the demand for that form of labor returns to historical norms. And there is very little chance that these new nurses would be trained in time to make a difference.
Maybe the federal government could undo the residency program that constrains the supply of doctors, but at best they could flush out all the doctors waiting for residency to complete right now. That would provide a small boost, but at most they could add 3 extra years worth of new doctors at once. Nothing the federal government could do would drastically increase the supply of doctors other than relaxing immigration requirements for foreign trained doctors, but that still takes time and is uncertain.
If there's any aspect of this pandemic that I'd lay right at the feet of the federal government, it would be the lack of PPE. Both Congress and the executive branch have all of the tools at hand to goose the production of PPE domestically should they have decided to do so, and yet our medical personnel continue to reuse N95 masks nine months into this pandemic. An extra supply of N95 masks would have also reduced the attrition of medical personnel, as actual sickness and perceived risk has been a big drag on the supply of properly trained personnel to fight this pandemic.
Santa Clara's hospitalization growth rate is running at 2-3 weeks.
This isn't something the health system can grow to solve.
They...did. There is a limit to the ability to magic up staffed medical facilities on short notice ex nihilo, however.
> They’ve been telling us it was going to get bad, then it did and they’re not prepared for it?
Had it not been predicted that it would exceed the potential to boost capacity, they would not have implemented the capacity-cobtingent statewide stay at home order (which is undermined by county sheriffs widespread and public non-enforcement stance.)
I can understand why some people's first reaction is to dig in their heels when they're confronted with the state's power of coercion. But, here in Hong Kong, not covering your nose and mouth is seen as spit-on-a-baby-rude. Yea, we have a mask ordinance and I'm sure there's a law against spitting on babies, but 98% of people were wearing masks before the ordinances were passed. Part of it is fear and self preservation, remembering SARS from 2004, but a lot of it is basic manners. If you see someone spit on a baby, your first reaction isn't "hey, the state will punish you for that".
Hong Kong is one of the most densely populated places on the planet, and we've had SARS-CoV2 here since January 2020, but the population of 7.5 million has fewer than 9,000 confirmed cases. It helps that at tropical temperatures, the virus survives only a few hours on stainless steel or non-porous plastic, but basic precautions, testing, and contact tracing really work.
Keep in mind the surge we are seeing right now is from Thanksgiving. It is most likely going to get worse.
Currently Swedish deaths sit at 837 deaths per million: https://epidemic-stats.com/coronavirus/sweden
By comparison consider Sweden's neighbors.
Norway currently sits at 80 deaths per million: https://epidemic-stats.com/coronavirus/norway
Finland currently sits at 99 deaths per million: https://epidemic-stats.com/coronavirus/finland
What is more troubling for Sweden is their current daily death rate is also very much higher than both Norway and Finland.
So if the aim was to try an reduce the number of citizens dying from Covid 19 then based on those figures Sweden's 'do nothing' approach has failed.
But in any case, in my opinion more should have been done, not less. Specifically, cut people a check so that they can afford to stay safely inside.
On the other hand, if all the people would followed the restrictions to the letter it would been under control many times over, as demonstrated by NZ, TW, AU, CN.
Regeneron could change things. That's an outpatient treatment that could be administered at clinics to patients who have tested positive. The problem is it's simply not available and it's still expensive.
If you catch covid, have good healthcare and can be admitted to a hospital then your prognosis is very good. What we can't do is treat large numbers of people simultaneously. Mass infection is a disaster.
Anyone who isn't insured can, because it's free:
https://www.npr.org/sections/health-shots/2020/10/22/9259424...
This was your takeaway from the article?
One political party has worked so hard over the last generation to convince people that science and experts are the enemy, and now we're paying the price.
I observe the COVID-19 narrative is probably false, starting with the timeline for the initial spread of SARS-CoV-2 across the globe in November/December 2019. Like the good doctor said, "#containment was never possible" [0].
Many people, including myself, probably had COVID-19 before tests were available. I think people did much better surviving the dreaded virus before the medicalists were treating COVID-19 as a diagnosis.
[0] https://twitter.com/TaxiCabJesus/status/1334531533013536768
edit: Wuhan vastly under-counted their COVID-19 cases: https://edition.cnn.com/2020/12/29/asia/china-coronavirus-se...
https://www.foxla.com/news/orange-county-sheriff-says-deputi...
There's your answer. The unwritten rule is everyone in California drives 10 mph over the speed limit and no one gets a ticket. More than 15 over and you're pushing your luck.
The good news is that vaccine distribution is moving very quickly--hopefully faster than the virus can mutate. The bad news is only developed countries, India, and China will likely vaccinate that quickly.
Why? It can't evolve against "no way to reach the human" like it could chemical/biological countermeasures.
Highly doubtful. And you would have crushed your healthcare workers.
Even if everything we did just delayed the big spike until now, it's a HUGE win that healthcare workers are now getting vaccinated.
Because we took steps, this is not going to reach anywhere close to the same result in terms of deaths, even if it comes to equal cases. The solution to the time problem was more strict action earlier, ironically for most on the "economy" side of pandemic action. Give people a big stimulus, stop all jobs beyond food and true essentials, and enforce strict contract tracing. We might have been out of this in two months if we did that.
1) Gov Cuomo sending elderly to nursing homes and packing them in for treatment. This killed thousands (same with Gov Whitmer in Michigan) and yet Cuomo wrote a fucking book about how great he is instead of facing any consequences.
2) Overuse of ventilators. People were putting vents right as they came in, mostly based off bad advice from doctors in Europe. Turned out this was a death sentence. Most of the young people who died, most likely died from high pressure ventilators over anything else.
3) Overflow hospitals in NYC were entirely empty because they were intended for non-covid patients and were incredibly difficult to get into. Many people who didn't have COVID, who were kept for monitoring, were kept on COVID floors of regular hospitals and got COVID.
NYC was mismanagement at every possible level.
They live in the nursing home FFS, that is their home.
They were cramming sick elderly people into nursing homes with perfectly healthy people; nursing homes without individual rooms! They were packing sick people next to unsick people. It literally killed thousands.
Janice Dean covers all the details very well in her podcast with Megyn Kelly, including reasonable countermeasures they could have taken instead of cramming sick elderly people together:
https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/the-megyn-kelly-show/i...
> Not this again
Why do you not consider this as valid? Nursing homes were the primary spread for COVID cases back in March/April and there is more than enough damning evidence against both Como and Whitmer.
Our political leadership was too weak to make the decisions necessary to implement these solutions. Some readers may retort that lockdowns are a violation of democratic or constitutional freedoms, but there have been times in the past when these rights were suspended. During the civil war, Lincoln suspended habeas corpus and jailed people without a trial. In extreme situations, extreme actions may be warranted. (The US will soon have more Covid deaths than US soldiers died in all of WW2, if you think my war comparison is unfair). China took extreme actions to enforce lockdowns and successfully ended the spread of Covid. America's leadership decided that peoples lives did not matter, and did not.
Ultimately, I will be significantly more suspicious of any western politician who demands we go to war to protect lives, or give up liberties for personal safety. 2020 has shown that politicians would not take even the weakest measures to protect personal safety (e.g mask mandates) - exposing their lies in other domains as well. The war on terror was fiction. The war on drugs is a jobs program. And a 9/11 amount of deaths can happen every day and politicians will literally do nothing and people will demand nothing. I am deeply pessimistic about our future.
Since, I don't know... WW2, we seem to no longer have the ability as a country to act in coordinated cooperation for some greater good. It's all individualism, now. It's all about me, me, me! My rights! My need to go shopping! My desire to eat at Olive Garden! Other people are dying? Fuck em... I'm going to enjoy my life and not let "the man" tell me what to do! Wait, I got the disease?? Well, crap! Who could have predicted it? God certainly works in mysterious ways.
2020 has pretty much robbed me of what empathy I had left. It's insane how selfish we have become.
This is not a civil society. It is a caste system.
When I start thinking along these lines, I consider the doctors and nurses, firefighters/EMS, vaccine researchers, food bank volunteers, grocery store workers, open-source data volunteers, ... “Look for the helpers,” as Mr. Rogers said.
I think that many people have been conscientious during the pandemic. They aren’t visible - they only show up in year-over-year measures of reduced traffic, etc.
None of this obviates my frustration at the political and cultural response to the pandemic. Covidiots and maskholes still piss me off, but I don’t think they’re the whole story.
Most people I know took stay-at-home seriously, but enough people didn't that it was totally ineffectual.
If we had perfect information, we could trace the liability back to people's behavior and fine them properly for non-compliance. But that would run up against privacy concerns wouldn't it?
What about a general strike by health care workers and grocery stockers and food delivery service workers? Right now. In the middle of a pandemic. Can you imagine the outrage? And why would people be outraged? Because they think these workers are slaves. They shouldn't have a choice. It's everyone who isn't on the front line who should get to choose whether to comply with public health orders.
It is certainly more civilized for health care workers to just quit en masse right now, than to propose people should just get to flaunt public health orders without any kind of penalty. But I'm getting the strong indication this is not a civil society.
I think one phrase from your comment highlights the entire problem though: “enforce no action.”
You can’t enforce a society wide shutdown. You can only get that from citizens who voluntarily participate in a social order that they trust. We (Americans) are faced with enormous problems as a society as a result of our inability to trust one another.
We may be able to engineer a zero trust replacement for our monetary system. We seem to desire the same thing for our society. Everyone demands infinite verification of everything. Fact check the fact checkers and audit the auditors that audit the election results! At some point though, it’s turtles all the way down. Political debate is starting to sound like epistemology.
It appears that societies that have greater levels of trust are faring better in this pandemic. That cannot become an excuse for our failure. It should instruct us on how to proceed.
EDIT: re-reading this I realize I’m singling out “society wide shutdown” as the sort of imagined best response, maybe it is, but what I was really thinking of was “highly coordinated society wide response where everyone does what they are supposed to based on their role.”
You can simply compare them to Denmark, Norway and Finland on infection rates, death toll and economic impact. If those countries manage to immunise their populations quickly then Sweden's approach was a huge failure in comparison.
But more to the point Sweden has now started trying to mandate restrictions and lockdowns as their health system is struggling and relying on public goodwill to do the right thing just isn't enough.
Hopefully hospitals are preparing for the surge in a few weeks, but I have a feeling they're too busy with the current surge.
https://www.abc10.com/article/news/health/coronavirus/califo...
I wonder if we could have trained covid medics over three months.
I think CA has many counterproductive restrictions. For example, outdoor dining should’ve been open which could, in theory, prevent people from gathering inside.
[*] https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#cases_casesper100k...
Anecdotal evidence, of course, but I was shocked to learn that many of my friends had inside guests for holidays. This is instead of going camping by themselves (banned) or going skiing by themselves (banned too). Even outdoor dining is banned - all you can do is gather inside now.
A lot of people who can't afford to stay home combined with a bunch of numbnuts who decided to go visit family over Thanksgiving.
This isn't even the Christmas burst yet. It's about to get worse.
This comment is not an endorsement of said actions, just a pedantic correction.
The reporting is also partially where stuff is active right now. El Paso was sending people in ambulances 600 miles to Austin because they were out of room.
"LA Runs Out of Hospital Rooms" is more of a headline than "El Paso Still Out of Hospital Rooms".
[0] https://www.sandiegocounty.gov/content/dam/sdc/hhsa/programs...
Outdoor dining is not ideal, but could have prevented many indoor gatherings. Remember how CA was closing the beaches in the spring despite that clearly being stupid?
Total infections / capita is still lower in CA than in Florida.
[0] https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=25341289 [1] https://www.smchealth.org/health-officer-updates/december-7-...
https://reddit.com/r/ivermectin
Edit: Why are people downvoting? The studies and experiences of patients are very promising. There are 25 studies on Ivermectin vs. COVID-19
• 12 of them peer-reviewed and published in international journals
• 9 are randomized controlled trials
• 4 are randomized placebo-controlled double-blind trials totaling 640 patients
• Total number of patients treated with ivermectin in these studies: 6359
• Total number of patients treated without ivermectin in these studies: 8594
It's a clear money grab too. They want this vaccine out because it opens the door to a ton of other mRNA treatments they haven't been able to get approved.
Further, this is very much a flattened curve. We could have easily seen 2 or more times the current rates of infection back then.
Yes, people are screwed up.
You have antimask morons protesting grocery stores. [1]
The goal of flattening the curve was to flatten the curve...we never really did that. We gave it a shot until everyone got bored or were deemed essential or had a pre-existing condition of being poor.
It's important to establish the actual significant causes of issues, so we now how to improve in future. Actions of those on opposing political sides would be a convenient and perhaps comforting significant cause, so we should be careful in prematurely concluding that.
Granted, we have to act on imperfect information at times.
Also, people can get demoralized in their personal efforts when they see mask wearing as a "divisive" thing that is a matter of opinion, and when they see other people, especially public leaders not wearing masks themselves.
I think a more likely explanation is that the lockdown worked up through the holidays, and then people went overboard the other way. If you lived in Texas or North Carolina, you may have seen your friends and family throughout the year. So it’s easier to keep Thanksgiving small, because the public messaging has been, ‘now it’s serious’.
If you live in California, you’ve been told since March that basically any activity puts you at risk of the virus. Depending on your county, this year you’ve been told to wear a mask when you’re within 30 feet of someone outdoors; that playgrounds and parks must be closed while bars can stay open; that indoor dining is banned unless you’re the governor; that there’s a 10pm curfew despite no evidence that such a curfew will slow the spread. At some point people get COVID fatigue and start to tune the messaging out. And I’m betting that point is around the holidays for many, many people.
- leaders downplaying the virus
- no top-down leadership in tackling the virus
- masks made political
- hundreds of thousands of people dead
- media focused on wedge issues and Trumps fantastical statements while people are dying
I do not live in the US and I don't for a second believe that everyone is anti-mask there, but judging from the outside looking at your numbers and media coverage, your whole attitude towards this deadly disease seems f'd up. I don't mean to direct this as an insult to the American people, more as a criticism towards the cultural and political attitudes surrounding this crisis. Anti-maskers of course are not solely to blame - nobody is - but they certainly seem to play a huge role culturally when compared to other countries.
I can see why you are scornful of them. But that doesn't make them a significant cause.
Probably less than BLM protesters.
‘Actual cause’ implies a singular input and output relationship which is both rarely accurate and the type of logic that enables things like anti mask lunacy, and vaccines, and other conspiracy theories.
Overall I don’t see the problem as anti mask protests...I see anti mask protests as a symptom of the selfish stupidity that seems to impede progress.
No, I acknowledge and want to account for indirect effects.
I just want to hold ourselves to empirical evidence, not just our political leanings.
In the convenience store or at the pump? If it's just at the pump, a lot of stations let you pay by card at the pump, it's outdoors, it's pretty easy to stay six feet from someone, and you're there less than 15 minutes.
I would gladly pay up to $1 (or 100 upvotes) for every comment I make here if only to prevent the steady decline into Reddit-style self-indulgent noise.
But it doesn’t appear like Covid is the absolute Max lethality possible for a pandemic; the 1918 flu pandemic seems to indicate that a virus can have a higher CFR and not burn out. So it could certainly get worse, but in general the trend is towards being less lethal making viruses more fit.
But let's say for argument's sake that the new variant is indeed half as serious, while being 70% more transmissive. That gives you one single multiplicative change in hospital utilization, but a permanent change to the exponent of the epidemic growth curve. The multiplicative benefit will basically get nullified by the increased growth in a week or two, and after that it is all downside.
[0] https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/...
I.e., could a biologically more virulent virus actually be less virulent in reality because it triggers a coordinated behavioral response in humans?
It’s sad that so many people are dying, but that’s the price of not living in an authoritarian mask state where humans care about each other’s survival.
Now we’ve got to where actual epidemiologists were warning: the overflow of COVID patients will start killing non-COVID patients through lack of care and ED resources.
Additionally, there are all sorts of treatments for chronic conditions, cancers and other maladies that take place in the hospital that are being delayed and/or cancelled due to lack of capacity.
"In 2017-18, the median time stood at 2.8 hours, while for 90 per cent of visits, it was 7.9 hours or less."
I see an average wait time (to get an initial assessment from a doctor) of 1.2 hours. There are lots of averages, though, depending on which stage and which path people take.
Regardless, I am indeed sorry to hear that happened to your brother. Waiting in a hospital in an emergency is one of the worst experiences in many people's lives.
https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#cases_casesper100k...
All those measures that CA took that were lauded - they don't seem to be working as expected. The per capita rate in all other states is better, with only TN and AZ approaching CAs levels.
CA is still only 34th/50 per capita in infections and 40th/50 per capita in deaths.
We can't exclude outliers and expect to get a useful dataset. Especially when those outliers change all the time, and exhibit the same patterns as each other.
I simply don't get the "we couldn't have done anything" mindset when we see countries like South Korea, Japan, Australia, and New Zealand with deaths per capita as little as 1%-3% of what it is here.
Similarly, effective contact tracing by the government is illegal in the US, ignoring that the disease was endemic before anyone even noticed. It isn’t just illegal, the US infrastructure is intentionally designed to make it extremely difficult to do at a technical implementation level, with the idea that it would hinder potential abuses. You could modify the systems to make contact tracing work, ignoring legality, but it would require at least a year of lead time to do the technical implementation. Many senior people in US government did ask about this early in the year and were repeatedly told that implementation would require a very long time both legally and technically. So they dropped the idea.
No amount of “real national commitment” will address these issues, and denying that these limitations exist isn’t the basis for a constructive policy.
There are also steps between what we did and the type of martial law style lockdowns and quarantining done in places like China. You don't need 100% participation in lockdowns or coverage for contact tracing to get the R0 below 1 which will lead to dropping case numbers.
Restrictions on freedom of travel, as laid down by the Supreme Court, are similar as for freedom of speech: the state must have a reasonable belief and compelling interest that a specific individual is an imminent threat to other people. You can’t quarantine a broad class of people over wide geographies on vague grounds, it requires clearing evidentiary hurdles that a narrowly targeted group of people harbors the disease. As a concrete example, this is the legal basis for how people remove their names from the No Fly List; having terrorist sympathies does not make one an imminent threat, and so the right to travel by common conveyance is upheld. (Unfortunately, the government has been successful at removing standing from everyone that challenges the Constitutionality of the No Fly List, but USSC justices have already made public statements that they take a very dim view of the legality of the practice.)
And this is why there were no real lockdowns. The AG in every State is well-aware that broad prohibitions on travel aren’t Constitutional and would lead to an instant court injunction. It has been tried in the past on many occasions. The most they can do is strongly disincentivize travel using their regulatory power over public establishments i.e. give people no reason to leave their house.
You think that the country which went from never leaving the earth to landing on the moon in 8 years, from 0 to hundreds of planes and dozens of ships per month in a few short months (WW2) couldn’t stand up a national infrastructure for contact tracing? Don’t confuse lack of will with lack of capability.
If you use off-the-shelf computer science, you have an O(n^2) problem on a data model that is growing by several petabytes per day. Existing systems can’t even ingest data at that rate in a useful way, never mind analyze it. Much more scalable algorithms exist; this was literally the topic of my supercomputing research back in the day. If you can severely constrain the data model in certain ways that are not possible in many countries, or you have a small enough population, you can kinda sorta brute force it. In practice no one is AFAIK, because off-the-shelf software simply isn’t designed for it, even at small scales. The US has an unconstrained data model combined with extremely high scale and topological complexity. You can’t magick state-of-the-art exotic data infrastructure into existence.
I did “what would it take” studies earlier this year for a couple governments. We are talking about 100k lines of advanced C++ for a system design that has never been built before, only theorized. It isn’t something you do over the weekend. Even in the most optimistic scenario, building the software would take at least 18 months. For COVID, there is no point (but they are still interested for the next pandemic).
We know from prior experiments that if a disease is endemic in a population and extremely draconian lockdown measures are not realistically possible — both true in the US and some parts of Europe — then contact tracing is basically an exercise in futility unless you have some exceptionally advanced data infrastructure (we don’t) and the legal authority to use it (the US doesn’t nor many countries in Europe).
Don’t confuse the lack of capability with a lack of will. The fact is that I was approached by multiple national governments on this subject very early on because they know I design this type of data infrastructure.
I am not too knowledgeable on the topic, may I ask you what sort of confidence is required for a well working contact tracing application? A naiv those-who-live-together is so utterly useless that it was rejected? And do I get it right, you meant to real-time track everyone and if someone turns out to be infected, everyone gets quarantined who they met in the preceding days? What percentage of contacts can “slip through” so that it is still effective? Isn’t there a working trade-off like counting people who work together and family or is it still subject to unimplementable exponential explosion?
Or am I asking the wrong questions as these are epidemiologic ones rather than technical? If so, excuse my lack of knowledge on the topic.
Also the fact that some of said states are near entirely run by people who have claimed that the virus did not exist from the start. I wonder how that may affect the transparency of data we get to see...
Oops, I mean, cognitive dissonance is cool.
Yes, they did.
And then the subsequent widespread public rebellion by county sheriffs, who lean very strongly to the political right and to whom state law invests exclusive and largely discretionary authority for enforcement of public health orders, that they simply would not enforce any of the orders also worked exactly as expected.
National media has tended to cover the state and regional public health orders, but not so much the very public announcements of non-enforcement by sheriffs. But they are extremely well distributed by local traditional and social media, and effect behavior.
Do you have a relevant study backing this assertion ? At best, we'll have a good understanding of effectiveness 10 to 15 years from now.
The assertion is that the outcome sought by the intervention was (from context, in the short-term, before the other events mentioned in the comment) achieved; the curve was flattened in the early wave. That was the relevant expectation, and it occurred.