Ask HN: Any predictions on international travel next year?

I assume reopening from COVID is going to have a longer time tail than expected. Usual issue of all major projects is time overrun.

My guess, >6 months until we open up much more than essential travel. At least for my country, Australia.

>12 months for tourism to get back in the swing of things.

For business I wonder if the WFH movement actually increases travel once back to normal. People can live further out or remotely so will have fly in monthly meetings type thing where they didn't before, and companies will probably look further afield for candidates.

Wildcards: New COVID strains and economic growth/contraction. Both will have a big impact on above and who knows...

Cases def will drop as we enter April in the Northern Hemisphere. Countries like Spain, Italy, Greece... no way they will/can miss another year of tourism cash. They will definitely open up towards June.

Chile just opened up. Does anyone know if Argentina has similar plans?

Hopefully is back to normal around July.. will have near a month of PTO to use..

Some countries will require proof of vaccination or an isolation period, especially if the mutation(s) of coronavirus is more contagious and/or more deadly. That will make frequent travelers try to get vaccinations sooner. These two things in tandem will make news, making it even more common. This, combined with many people feeling pent up travel energy, will result in more than average international travel in the second half of 2021