You don't have to sell your company to have financial security
37signals.com
37signals.com
I don't see how anyone could argue that selling was not optimal for security. Sure, you could gradually save money, but that's not optimal; it's not more secure than getting a lump sum upfront.
Whether selling is the optimal way for most founders to work on what interests them most is a fuzzier question, because it depends on the likelihood that the average founder's startup is the most interesting thing he could be working on. (Not just interesting; the most interesting.)
You can't prove this, only offer arguments of various strengths.
The strongest abstract one is similar to Occam's Razor: that a choice that has to satisfy two independent constraints is unlikely to be the optimal choice for either alone. Specifically, that you can probably do better on the dimension of interestingness if you don't also have to satisfy the constraint of making lots of money.
I'm surprised people find this idea controversial. It seems to pervade almost everyone's choices from the moment they enter the workforce. I.e. if you want to make more money, you often have to compromise on the type of work you do, and if you want to work on what you love, you often have to make financial sacrifices.
There may be a few statistical outliers who escape this force (a few top athletes, for a few years each) but for everyone else it's as pervasive as gravity.
the point is that the two don't have to be mutually exclusive. they may well be if you're building a consumer web app without any monetization strategy but not for e.g. an ad network - something that needs to make money from the start and can also be bought out eventually.
That's a pretty bold statement. If you think that an offer on the table is greater than all the net income you're comfortable your company will generate (discounted to present value of course), then you would take the money and run. If on the other hand your company is creating value (net income), and you are confident it will be creating more value (net income) going forward so that the discounted future net income the company generates is way more than the upfront lump sum, you wouldn't sell and it wouldn't be more secure or optimal. I think the issue is that most 'startup' owners aren't focusing on the net income part so they don't view their company as a cashflow generating entity which can be rationally valued against an upfront lumpsum, which means they'll take the money and run just about everytime; why wouldn't they?
I'm sure 37signals could have sold their company right after launching basecamp in 2004 for a multiple of revenues at the time, guessing a couple of million dollars. However, for some reason that wasn't optimal for their security, and by 2007 (doubling revenues every year since 04) chances are they've earned/pocketed the value they could have sold the company for in 04 (if not a majority of that value) and they get to keep that cashflow generating machine going forward (which means more cashflow + more valuable equity).
Pg says make something people want and will find useful, while DHH says make something you will find useful and stick to your intuition.
I think 37signals and their manifesto make them much happier than trying to please others.
When DHH says "solve your own problems" it's only because he thinks that if you do have a problem, it's very possible other people have the same problem. Hence, you are "making something people want".
One strategy is lower risk then the other, pick the one you like best.
But DHH does make a good point about the special scenario when your startup is indeed the most interesting thing you'll ever work on. Then after you flip it and decide retirement is not for you, you've already sold your best idea.
I think that's a rare scenario, there's not much risk of "losing" the idea of your life. Then again, there's not much chance that any particular startup will be sold.
I think they continue to work on them because it's mostly pleasant work, they have total control, there's a lot of inertia, and of course because it's making them wealthy.
I don't.
Sometimes the real fun comes after the business passes its first few milestones. Lots of people bust their butts building a business in order to get it to the point where it will be a lot more fun to run.
Sustaining a business over the years and making it through the ups and downs of the economy can be an extremely interesting challenge.
Doesn't happen all the time, but I've seen it more than once. I'm sure there are other scenarios that could play out.
I am in a similar situation (well, probably not making as much money) and I do find it very interesting. At this point in my life I wouldn't want to lead a company with a limited runway and investors eager to find a buyer for it.
I still get to play and experiment with new technologies, and I use some of our profits to fund at least a couple of interesting projects per year. I could do this for decades.
There really is a limit to the amount of exciting original thinking that a person can do in a week. You need to sleep. You need to exercise. And you need downtime. If you've got an exciting, fast-moving, forward-looking hobby, it's kind of useful to have a pleasant, renumerative job to do in your off hours.
And it's hard to develop frameworks for building maintainable software if you never actually have to maintain any software. Practice makes perfect.
[1] I cannot believe that I just read a post suggesting that David Heinemeier Hansson might not be doing enough interesting things with his time. How much more code should the guy be giving away? I'm sure there's a non-empty set of people who wish he'd slow down.
It doesn't seem like it is. They recently decided to spend less time on the company:
http://www.37signals.com/svn/posts/893-workplace-experiments
If it was the most interesting thing they could imagine doing, why would they decrease the amount of time they spent on it?
I am quite a boring person though!
However, if you can make a nice wage like 20k a month, work when you are in the "groove", have all of the things you want in life, take some nice vacations I don't see why they would need to make any changes until there life's interests shift focus.
My thought exactly. Taking free cooking/art classes is fun, but sooner or later, you start wanting to make something that'll last 100 years. That's what Arc is about. Ditto for Knuth's Art of Computer Programming.
Can you imagine Knuth writing them while running a business?
Small companies/large companies, most of them eventually fail to be competitive. Internet has almost 0 barriers to entry, there is absolutely nothing stopping another startup from coming in and taking you out, doesn't matter if you have a bigger piggy bank.
Better to sell while you are still on top, and then if you really want to, you can use some of that capital to build something else that you can be happy about. And lets face it, if its 6 years later, chances are you have plenty of new ideas you want to try out.
If I have a 5 year old company that makes $250,000/yr for me, and Google offers to buy it for 10-20 mil, I'd take the deal, because it means I'll now have guaranteed money to live the lifestyle I want for the rest of my life, and I'll be able to use a portion of that to do my next startup that I'll be just as excited, as I was about my original idea
I have a friend who ran an online business for 4 years while doing a medical degree and put away about half a million pounds (~$1m) while doing so (that's on top of the money that he actually spent). That's enough money to be quite comfortable for a long time.
i.e. lets say your friend gives himself $250,000/yr and he grows that by 15% every year and then gets another 10% as a return on his investment, and then lets compare to a guy who just got his check from Google and put it in the same investments to get 10%.
So I threw this into excel:
Row 1: $250,000x1.15 <--this is his company growing at 15%, so he can afford to give himself, a bigger payout(15% more per year)
Row 2: $1,000,000x1.1 <--this is his 1 million he currently has saved, gaining the 10% from investments
Row 3: Sum of 1+2 <---both numbers combined
Row 4: $10,000,000x1.1 <--the guy who took the 10 million, and invested it
After 20 years: Guy who is still running his business 24/7, growing it at a magnificent 15%: $10.8mm Guy who is doing absolutely nothing, or started another company: $67.2mm
Now I'll grant you that the guy who is still running his business, also has his own company that is probably worth more than the 57 million difference. But to get that, he has so far worked non-stop for 20 years.
After 40 years: 112.2mm vs 452.6mm
After 60 years 1.4bb vs 3.0bb
After 80 years 19.986bb 20.484bb
So as you can see, it'll take him 81 years, before the guy who wants to keep his company gets the same amount of cash, as the guy who became millionaire at the age 30.
Thats the whole point, you sell your company as soon as you are offered a large enough chunk of money, so that you can start investing it. The whole "the rich get richer", is possible because money makes money. And that 10% is pretty average, usually possible even if you are risk averse.
And even if the person is COMPLETELY risk averse, and put that money into different ING Savings type companies, which give you like 4.7%, it'll still be 39 years before the residual guy catches up.
Bad Stats. Small sample size. Along with the return, you need to look at the probability of getting said return.
Look at your expected value. 10M with a 1:10,000 shot is different than 1M with a 1:100 shot.
So instead of comparing individual successes, you probably need to look at the EV of the group and then compare it like that.
And if you think you can get better odds than my completely made up ones, then let me know when you need a cofounder ;)
Tell that to Marcus Frind (PlentyOfFish) or James Hong (HotOrNot).
Some math: PlentyOfFish was kicking off about $200-300k in cash per month. That's yearly income of about $3M, so in 3 years, he's banked the $10M that your hypothetical acquisition target has made, and he still has his company.
HotOrNot was reportedly also throwing off multiple millions per year, enough that James didn't have to work even before he sold the company.
The main source of wealth for owners of small LLC or S-corp Internet businesses isn't their salaries, its their dividend checks - which can easily range into the millions. Many popular businesses kick off a lot of cash, and small private Internet businesses usually distribute nearly all of that to the shareholders.
The difference between having $1m and $10m is much smaller than the difference between having $0 and $1m. And the difference between $10m and $100m is smaller yet! If you can pay yourself $3m a year, acquisition is pretty irrelevant - you're rich anyway.
Let's say he is living off of 150k/year after the first year: Y1: Keep = 100k savings, Sold = 10.85M savings. Y2: Keep = (2501.15 + 100 1.1 - 150)k = 235k, Sold = 10.85m * 1.1 - .15m = 11.785m Y10: Keep = 4.8m savings and the company, Sold = 23.5m Y20: Keep = 39.6m savings and the company, Sold = 58.6m Y30: Keep = 219m savings and the company, Sold = 149m.
Note: If someone offers you 40x earnings it's probably a good time to sell.
The real question, to me, is whether you should build with the intention of trying to flip or if you should build with the intention of making it a stable business. That direction will make a huge difference in a lot of your decisions about whether to take on funding, whether to focus on early revenue or just on user numbers, etc. And there's no easy answer to that one; it really depends on what you want out of the experience, what your expected likelihood of being able to flip is, if you take satisfaction out of building over the long term or if you'll get bored in a few years anyway, etc.
It's easy to start such a business; but it's also easy for your new competitor, and for open source. But apart from barriers to entry, there's that routine cataclysm of a computer technology revolution every decade or so. That one is hard to survive. This volatility is the main reason Warren Buffett doesn't invest in computer technology companies.
I think the long-term is a decade or so.
Buildsoft (the acquired company) develop software for the building industry. At some point, this is the same business as developing physical tools for the building industry. Once there's a known task and a standardized way to solve it, we can develop our tool for doing that. There's less uncertainty.
I think the distinction is to do with uncertainty, generality and abstractness. A "technology" company is doing something new and unknown, that is applicable to many different industries - but hasn't settled down yet. Once the application becomes concrete, and specific to a particular industry, and the way of solving it is pretty well established, I guess it becomes just a regular business like any other.
Moore's "Crossing the Chasm" talks about customizing a product to a specific industry, as a way to get a measure of security - you won't get wiped out (until the next revolution in computers).
I was thinking that Warren might not have anything to do with this acquisition, but he's very attentive to capital redeployment, so I would guess he did personally approve this purchase.
Learn to cook brown rice. Bring your lunch to work. Walk to your job (or to a bus stop to your job) and can the gym membership. Yoga studios tend to offer free classes on Sunday. Visit the library instead of buying so many books. In fact most libraries will even buy a book they don't have if you ask them. And if you really want to give your mind a break from coding, buy a repair manual and learn to fix your own car. This actually results in the satisfaction of an affectionate bond with your car that you can't buy at the dealership.
Two things have surprised me the further I go down this path.
1. Hacking the system by revolting against the consumer culture is so much fun, that I keep pushing harder regardless of my income.
2. While living like this, you'll even find low-maintenance (high-everything-else) women doing the same thing who find it attractive.
Since dhh was a speaker at Startup School I also assume they get along fine and we simply benefit from a kind of benign competiton.
Probably they are both right, what I would like to know now is which course of action has the bigger chance of success ;-)
Nevertheless I also feel pointing to the CEOs who stayed with their company might be inaccurate. Jeff Bezos might still be with Amazon, but he might not be much into selling books. He might be exploring things like the Kindle and Amazon Web Services, or something entirely different. The point: those longterm-CEOs might simply be doing startups within the safety of the mother company.
(From "Identity and the Life Cycle", by Erik H. Erikson)
Wufoo has a somewhat similar model to 37signals and they're unbelievably profitable.
Have you used their products or researched the market? This is an excellent example of "do an amazing job, and charge people very little for it". Organizations make a lot more money from building web forms, they just pay it all off to sales staff to sell them.
Still, you probably could sell your hypothetical company. Could even be easier, since you have actual cash flow to look at.
Huh? They run 37signals exactly like most other startups. Find a market, build a product, sell it, grow, expand.
If you mean the opposite of the "Web 2.0 monetize eyeballs and get acquired" lottery, then yes. But make no mistake about it, this model is definitely not the norm even though we talk about it alot here at hn. I know many millionaires that have happily built what we now call "lifestyle" businesses. Except they never called them that. They just made money they only way they knew how because they never knew when or if an acquirer would ever come along.
Which isn't surprising since 37signals isn't a startup.
Then what is it?
Sure, they've found some product niches which are profitable for them. But I don't see that as being extremely applicable or related to the newer crop of startups. If you want advice on maintaining a software business, then sure.
The impression I get is that most startups work hard and get things done. They pile in new features. They work really hard to grow, make deals, etc etc. That might mean working 7 days a week, maybe a few all nighters. I don't get that impression from 37signals, which is fine. They are not building a company, they are maintaining one.
For me, it's products seem quite minimalistic with the bare bones amount of features, also in my opinion 37signals having ruby on rails is a unique situation. So any advice given that worked for them, may well not work for anyone else.
In that regard, entrepreneurs who build to flip are no different from real estate speculators: they make a few people richer, but in the end you'll end up with the same lot of aging houses.
Not to mention that "build to flip" companies simply suck. Their products are jokes built overnight as parasites on shoulders of open source excellence, and in the end they don't reward financially anyone but investors and (but not always) founders: it's statistically stupid decision to work long hours as a regular programmer for a startup whose goal is to sell out for $50M after 3 rounds of funding.
I like Paul a lot, but his patronage and encouragement (!) of build-and-flip projects is the worst part of "PG culture" that I have the biggest problem with. Especially when he blames VCs for not funding the "next Google". The Google wouldn't has happened if S&L landed on YC.news some day in 99: they'd sell out to Yahoo for $10M instead.
That's a slight generalization. Also you can actually do both - build to be profitable long term, and also build to be attractive in terms of acquisitions.
My guess is that most businesses that make enough money for you to live off of comfortably would have an acquisition value that is high enough that you wouldn't have to work anymore.
But, like most of their recent articles, its just promoting the bootstrapped stay-small business ideal.
If your looking to make a lifestyle business then they have some good advice. But all businesses are not equal.
The market, industry, and success all play a big role in determining whether or not VCs, M&As or IPO's are right for your business.
I've said this before, 37Signals is selling a work-style philosophy.
Which is probably why they didn't make much of an argument, besides "we work 4 days a week and still take vacation" and "other people have stayed small so you can too".
Let's not forget that 37signals is no longer an early stage start-up. If your making a million+ in revenues, of course you can make flexible hours for your staff.
But if you create a business that returns $100,000 pa, while you similarly get taxed on that income, you don't get taxed on the creation of the business - even though it's equivalent to having saved $1,000,000, in terms of its return.
And if that doesn't set your heart singing in transcendental joy, it's probably better for you to just do what you love and the money will follow. :-)
contrast this to 'work for company' ... u get taxed 35% every year :(
probably it's the social design school-work-govt 1. you obtain huge debt from school 2. you become obedient by having to work to pay the debt 3. you stay in the loop because of taxes
Really? Here in Australia, we don't get a tax break for buying stock (AFAIK). When you earn the money, you pay tax, and then you buy stock with what's left over. (though there's tax breaks for investing via superannuation)
in my country, the capital gain tax is only 0.1%, automatically included when one sells stock (0.15% fee for buying and 0.25% fee for selling any amount any time); however, income tax from working is 35% top
but the trend is ... tax on investment is substantially lower while it's much higher on working income ... social control perhaps?
But note that you only get taxed on capital gains if you realize them (ie. if you sell the stock). If you just sit on it, and take the dividends, you don't get taxed on the capital appreciation. Over time, the dividends (usually!) increase reflecting the capital appreciation (so you are getting something out of that capital appreciation), but you're not taxed on the capital appreciation itself.
The distinction between this and starting a business yielding the same dividends is that you don't pay tax on sweat equity; whereas you were taxed on the $ equity (that you bought the stocks with) when you earnt it.
hmmmmm, they are both instances of capital appreciation which you don't get taxed on - until you sell the stocks/business. It's just that the business starts closer to $0, though there is always some $ investment in starting a business - even if only in the form of your living expenses).
Yes, it's deliberate encouragement of investment (which creates new employment, new wealth... new taxable income), but which flows naturally from the nature of capital appreciation. And it's easier to police the event of a sale. But truly, if they really wanted to tax capital appreciation (without a sale), they could. It's a decision to not tax it, to encourage investment.
PS: you mean 0.1 capital gains don't you? (ie. not 0.1%, but 10%)
Perhaps because when they say these things we know that they believe it in some absolute sense not just because it benefits them. So maybe I should say refreshing, not fresh.
I love HN.
They're not some new startup who are building Ruby on Rails applications because it is the hot new technology.
They're building Ruby on Rails applications because they invented it. It is the hot new technology because of what they did, not vice versa.
It's very rewarding for me.