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Considering the FBI recently foiled a plot by a group who was planning to "take out" parts of the energy grid, it seems likely from my experience that this is another set of people executing a similar plan targeting telecoms. I imagine there is a high probability of more incidents like this happening between now and the inauguration, meant to target various infrastructure and "big government" components throughout the country. This attack screams anti-government militia with it's technique, and we will see in the following days online chats emerging with all the planning details that will likely include someone that had some degree of "insider information" about the ATT facility.

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The only thing you’re missing in your plot is encrypted messengers that can’t be cracked without sweeping legislation.

I saw a bunch of headlines recently that said the FBI had decrypted one of the popular secure messaging apps (telegram or signal maybe?), which, bizarrely enough, fits my narrative perfectly. Though I saw other headlines stating that was incorrect reporting.

You probably saw the headlines about Cellebrite claiming to have "signal decryption" capabilities, which they did, provided they had the device in hand and unlocked

https://signal.org/blog/cellebrite-and-clickbait/

Just like anyone with a private key and file — this site has tangibly shifted from ‘14 to now.

Most people seemed to be having lots of fun roasting Cellebrite for that awful article.

https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=25520481

Woah! They can decrypt it when it’s decrypted!! News!

The company claiming to have broken Signal was simply pulling the database of messages off of an unlocked phone. It’s definitely not a hack and the blog post has since been heavily retracted.

I think it’s premature to speculate about motive, aside from the obvious part about targeting telecoms infra rather than people. For instance, this might also potentially disable security/alarm systems for a heist, or perhaps it was motivated by some 5G conspiracy theory.

The Venn diagram on anti-government militias and 5G conspiracy theorists is pretty close to a circle

In the UK we have some lefties getting in on the fun too - "buy my crystals to fix your 5G allergy" kind of stuff.

"lefties" is a much broader category than anti-government militias. Other than that, no argument from me

Although there is more overlap between the anti-government types and lefties than they would both like to admit, we don't really have a libertarian sect beyond a vague correlation with thatcherism (But even then, outright thatcherism is still a think for the wonks - having any political ideology at all is depressingly rare)

Here in the colonies, most of the left regards libertarians as right-wing (and a good chunk of the right considers them to be left-wing).

It's illustrative of why simplistic right/left labeling is at best useless. You have to evaluate individuals - and media orgs - at a much more granular level. At minimum, three dimensions - natsec/defense, economics, social.

I'm not sure if it's only anti government militia. Another possibility could be a heist/digital raid and that this bombing was there to prevent offsite backups of a secure data facility.

Nonetheless this seems too coordinated and well executed to be some random hate group, so I agree with you there. Especially with the evacuation messages.

Anybody know if e.g. the Nexus group or similar SSAE data centers had some issues?

I made that link too - it’s spurious at best though, of course.

Ever heard of Metcalf sniper attack, too, taking down a California power station a couple years back? https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Metcalf_sniper_attack

Crippling a country’s energy and telecom capabilities could align with the motives of another nation.

Yep metcalf is why I'm making the leaps here. Also because metcalf is only one of dozens of similar events that occured throughout the US in the past 8-10 years or so, all similarly targeting infrastructure and energy companies, most of which remain unsolved today.

>between now and the inauguration

Why the inauguration?

>This attack screams anti-government militia

What about it screams anything identifiable?

Are you sure your biases aren't creeping into your analysis?

First, this isn't an analysis as much as it is pointless speculation on a Y Combinator message board.

I already listed some things that stood out to me in another comment.

I call out the inauguration because it's literally about to happen? Its the next the largest event in American politics on the calendar. And obviously my assumptions that this is tied to anti government efforts means those involved would likely be stirred up by whatever is currently happening in politics. Everyone's bias creeps into everything they do. Neither of us are immune to that. So calling it out here in such a uselessly rhetorical manner isn't some logical fallacy flag, it's a derailment of the discussion. I'm not even sure what bias you're accusing me of, I guess leftist politics?

What we're seeing is a "stochastic insurgency" where loosely affiliated groups and individuals conceive, plan and execute infrastructure attacks and targeted assassinations. Relatively little operational coordination; but lots of online showing support and post-crime support.

I hope all congressional representatives and local government officials are reviewing their safety plans.

That's almost straight out of Ghost in the Shell...

Stand Alone Complexes, yeah

I hope all congressional representatives and local government officials are reviewing their safety plans

I know I likely don't have to tell this to the experts out there, but it might first be advisable to have your counter terrorism guys review "all congressional representatives and local government officials". No one minds fighting a war, at the same time, no one wants to charge out of a foxhole and be shot in the back.

I wonder what other crimes have stochastic forms... could violent video games be stochastic murder, if among the thousands of players there is one disturbed person who might be inspired by depictions of violence to act violently? Could songs glorifying violent lifestyles also be called stochastic crime? Folk songs glorifying cartels come to mind. If an unrealistic war movie inspires teenagers to join the army, might the producers of that movie have some share of the blame for the actions undertaken by that army?

Where is the line drawn between stochastic crimes and free speech?

I dob't think the word "stochastic" means what you seem to think it means.

I'm pretty sure I know what it means. If you want a more substantial reply, give me one first.

Can you elaborate on what you mean by "stochastic forms"? The meaning and usage of the word that I am familiar with don't seem to fit here, so I don't think I'm getting your meaning. Thanks

Sure. From Wikipedia:

> A derivation of Dr Woo's stochastic terrorism model was proffered by an anonymous blogger posting on Daily Kos in 2011 to describe public speech that can be expected to incite terrorism without a direct organizational link between the inciter and the perpetrator.[31][32] The term "stochastic" is used in this instance to describe the random, probabilistic nature of its effect: whether or not an attack actually takes place. And, although the actual perpetrator of a planned attack and its timing is not under the control of the stochastic terrorist, their actions nevertheless serve to increase the probability that a terrorist attack will occur.[33] The stochastic terrorist in this context does not direct the actions of any particular individual or members of a group. Rather, the stochastic terrorist gives voice to a specific ideology via mass media with the aim of optimizing its dissemination.[33]

So if 'stochastic terrorism' is speech that will probabilistically inspire acts of violence when it reaches a large number of people, why can't this be generalized to crimes other than terrorism? If the (now banned) subreddit r/shoplifting publishes messages glorifying shoplifting to a large number of people, it will likely inspire some portion of those exposed to commit these crimes themselves. Does that make the subreddit a form of 'stochastic theft'?

you'll be ok

Haven’t mass shootings been a form of this despite the lack of unified motive or ideology? They’ve certainly spread terror.

You can conclude all of that from one attack?

Where are the other infrastructure attacks? Or targeted assassinations?

Recently there was the attempt to kidnap the Michigan's governor and the cell that was planning an attack on a power plant.

Both stopped by intelligence services, but that doesn't stop them being data points for people being extremists.

Not saying there is a guarantee this was people with the same objectives, but it seems like a plausible theory. I wouldn't make strong assertions as though it was fact, but I also wouldn't act like there hasn't been a trend recently.

> This attack screams anti-government militia with it's technique

What part of the technique indicates "anti-government militia"?

Purely my opinion and speculation here, but I'd say the things that stick out to me are the timing and avoidance of random casualties for one. This is a hallmark used by the IRA and the ETA in Spain to inflict damage upon the government without damaging the people, so to speak. The use of an RV also stands out to me, I don't recall many VBIEDs associated with foreign terrorists using that type of vehicle in the US, while I do recall RVs being a common tool in militia groups for movement, travel, storage, etc. Some other things stuck out to me watching videos of the explosion, but it's hard to say anything definitive until more evidence is released.

I don't think the IRA counts as "anti-government" simply because they are anti-that-government.

They are also not a "militia" as I understand the term.

Why would you follow up "it screams" with "hard to say anything definitive"? Those seem quite contradictory to me.

Why do you feel the ira is not a militia? All of its modern forms (there have been splits) are armies of nonprofesssional soldiers.

What would you consider the IRA to be in lieu of anti-government?

I don't think I said the IRA were a militia, I drew a conclusion that this incident, which I speculate as being tied to anti government militia groups in the US, shares similarities with other destructive anti government groups seen in Ireland and Spain. I don't think I said those groups were militia groups specifically, and I don't think the comparison is such a stretch since there are other commenters making the exact same leap to the IRA.

My contradictory wording is likely to be a subconscious defense mechanism of sharing my opinion on the internet. I have not claimed any specific knowledge or authority over this event or even in defense of my own speculation here. In full transparency, the only reason I posted was because people were going all in on the "heist" theory, which I find ridiculous.

> This attack screams anti-government militia with it's technique

What makes you think this? Vehicle bombs have been used by Islamic bombers, IRA bombers. Doesn’t seem that unique to me.

He clearly has a nice narrative, stop trying to spoil it for him by popping his balloons

They usually do not go out of their way to avoid civilian victims. On the contrary.

As mentioned elsethread, the IRA did in fact often phone in warnings before a bombing.

The IRA was an anti-government militia, specifically against British occupation.

If anything, this attack reminded me of the Weather Underground bombings in the 70s, which were often prefaced by evacuation warnings and targeted infrastructure rather than people. If I had to take a guess though, I'd go with a genuinely mentally ill person attempting to take out the 5G "mind control rays" or whatever, particularly given the potential presence of human remains found at the scene.

I read that story you mentioned about the energy grid plot, but it seems like bizarrely pathetic larping that was stopped before any substantive action was taken [0]. One part of the article I couldn't help but laugh at:

> The affidavit says the Ohio teen put Nazi flags in his room, but his mother told him to take them down.

[0] - https://www.nbcbayarea.com/news/national-international/fbi-w...

Yea when I first saw the coverage my immediate assumption was a crazy anti-5g person. But reading accounts of the events leading up to the explosion made it sound too well executed for that in my mind. Obviously anyone who does this, regardless of motive, is mentally ill in some capacity.

> Obviously anyone who does this, regardless of motive, is mentally ill in some capacity.

I'm not sure why you think that is obvious. Without knowing the motive we have no means of assessing the decision making process of the attacker(s).

Note there was also an interesting event in WA on Dec 22 - local outlets covered:

https://www.seattletimes.com/seattle-news/train-carrying-cru...

There was also an explosion at BGE building in Baltimore two days back on 23rd

Two women were indicted for placing shunts across the same railroad's tracks in the same county earlier this month:

https://www.justice.gov/usao-wdwa/press-release/file/1341141...

Note particularly the "INDIGENOUS LAND" emblem on page 5 of the indictment. Pretty obviously not the only two people who are part of that group.

> This attack screams anti-government militia with it's technique

The target and the means (RV stuffed with explosives) would sort of fit the pattern. Broadcasting an advance warning would be rather atypical for US right wing (or islamic, for that matter) terrorists, though, and rigging up a speaker that actually works would stretch the technical abilities of a typical US militia group.

The groups who did operate that way (weather people, IRA, RAF, etc) are not presently active in the US (unless some snowbird weather people decided to come out of retirement).

If the rumors of this being a suicide bombing pan out, a single disgruntled person with some technical skill probably would have the financial and technical means to carry this out, and a company like AT&T probably enrages thousands of technical people a year for various reasons — power laws would suggest that occasionally one of them might become enraged to the point of terrorism.

Or, for wilder speculation, maybe some foreign state level actor has an interest in causing extra chaos? With leadership of various security services in near constant turmoil, and new appointees being installed primarily with partisan domestic objectives, now is as good a time to carry out such an act as any.

It's probably best not to jump to conclusions, and be wary of any authorities looking to take this incident as a pretext to expand any of their ample existing powers.

You’ve been watching too much Netflix over the holiday.

Do you have a link for the FBI prevented plot?

Edit: thank you (both)

https://thehill.com/changing-america/respect/diversity-inclu...

(note: not the OP)

https://www.washingtonpost.com/national/national-digest-whit...

This sounds extremely similar to Fight Club

One thing I found interesting was this list of media companies now owned by AT&T. I can imagine a motive scenario based on these names alone.

https://bgr.com/2018/06/16/att-time-warner-merger-brands-wha...

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