Ask HN: What do you think of a 4 hour work day?
[0] https://www.amazon.com/Five-Hour-Workday-Differently-Productivity-Happiness-ebook/dp/B01FGAFDBO
[1] https://www.amazon.com/Shorter-Work-Better-Smarter-Heres/dp/1541730712
[0] https://www.amazon.com/Five-Hour-Workday-Differently-Productivity-Happiness-ebook/dp/B01FGAFDBO
[1] https://www.amazon.com/Shorter-Work-Better-Smarter-Heres/dp/1541730712
We will soon have 10 billion by 2050. Everything is going to be automated. There isn’t going to be a lot of jobs around.
If we still survive 2050 and continue having a money/currency.employment based economy, we will have to drastically reduce work hours.
But that’s a BIG IF ..we’ll see what the future holds.
That's really the whole story.
Otherwise, the difference would have went into training, automation, expanding the business, etc...
Some companies did it that way. Tektronix, under it's original founder trained everyone, funded startups, and generally expanded both the talent pool and number of companies operating in the region. Made a nice profit, but not the peak possible profit.
There are many other examples.
See big names in the midwest were headed down similar roads.
As things stand right now? Not possible economically, because any gains will be rolled up in to lower head counts.
There have been different value judgements in the past. They can change again in the future too.
Will they?
Hard to say. If people end up generally happy? Probably not.
Population increases exponentially. As does consumption. Resources are limited. We will all live smaller. Thats what happens when we exceed carrying capacity.
You will also find that Malthusian explosions don't actually happen among humans. See the declining birth rates across much of the first world.
Think of the impact of our population vs resources as a ratio rather than a number. The realization is chilling.
But back to jobs. Yes..you are right again. But also, jobs that are based on materials consumption(mentioned earlier in this reply) and that can be automated will become smaller vs service/personal interaction industry that will explode.
AWS is one such example.
As another example: remember when we had cameras? There was a whole industry revolving around cameras, lenses, printing, developing films and then digital media.
Now, we have our multitasking camera..it’s uploaded to the cloud and we can view it on an electronic device.
How many jobs would have disappeared? All over the world because of this transition. How many new photo memories have been created because photography became part of our mobile phone?
It has increased while jobs have also increased. Do we really need facial recognition to sort photos in our smart phone? But some guy in Apple or google or Facebook is trying to figure out how to teach AI to group similar looking facial features after recognizing them as same.
An entire class of job has been created..one that did not exist just twenty years ago. They are higher paying jobs. And arguably more people are employed in this new post smart phone world than during Konica film time.
More and more goods are becoming virtual and becoming cheaper to produce and consume. But because of the sheer volume, we can still keep up with creating jobs of this kind.
However we can’t increase the amount of food or water or dairy milk. Tangible goods will become scarcer and those jobs will disappear. The essentials can never be expensive. Let’s hope water and food is affordable to all in the coming centuries. Which means some sectors necessarily will have to be automated and aligned sectors will also have to be automated. (Example: food production and food supply chain..if one is cheap and the other is expensive, the house of cards falls down).
So yes, you are right. It is only applicable for certain jobs. But we can also expand consumption of these to keep revenue and margins up. Example: we can sign up for Facebook as well as YouTube. We can have WhatsApp as well as signal. So the jobs for those qualified to work there will continue to exist even if population increases or more jobs are created.
The future will likely have advertised goods that are virtual than real. Maybe online ads for a video game than a bone china teaset.
So we can look forward to shortages of real goods due to population pressure/resource scarcity. Here is where margins will have to be maintained to continue getting essentials out to the public. Like food, fiber and material goods etc.
But we can also expect service sector booming and employment. And that can be endless employment. Now we will starting running on the Red Queen’s macro economic treadmill. Prices chasing wages chasing employment chasing wages chasing prices.
It is like paying someone to whitewash a wall and then paying someone to spray graffiti and then hiring someone to whitewash it again just so everyone gets a chance to make some change and earn some money. That is the future we are looking at...
If we can manipulate currency and money market..with man made constructs, why play the charade of mandatory 40 hour work weeks?
The only reason to carry on would be to generate money for the govt in the form of taxes.
If we embrace automation fully and lesser working hours and eliminate all taxes except on consumption, we will at least have happy human beings. And happy Homo sapiens will likely be less inclined..than those participating in exhausting rat races...to get into conflict situations. This will become important as we will most certainly be facing resource scarcity...esp of non renewable resources.
To give a simple example: the daily bowl of oatmeal. From farms out of the farm gate to processing to point of sale, the entire supply chain runs on fossil fuel. Ag is entirely fueled by fossil fuels. If we magically erase the existence of fossil fuels that is a non renewable resource tomorrow, we will all starve. We might not die at once, but our access to almost everything we need to survive would be blocked.
And that’s just one example of non renewable resource. I also mentioned soil Phosphorus that is limited..and also sand that is non renewable and used extensively for construction. Water and arable land that is needed for everything from timber to food to fiber. Mining etc.
Unless we have a drastic paradigm shift and we tap into some kind of Tesla’esque ‘Free Energy’, we are living off savings instead of capital.
Fossil fuels are definitely finite, and few things match their energy density and general utility.
Our environment is warming, and we need to bootstrap ourselves onto other energy now, while we have fuels and quick or we may find ourselves energy constrained and fighting the battle in a far less livable place.
Human-made materials now outweigh Earth’s entire biomass – study
[..] The giant human footprint stamped across the world in 2020 is greater than the impact on the planet of all other living things, research suggests. The amount of plastic alone is greater in mass than all land animals and marine creatures combined, the study estimates. While human beings might believe in “the immensity of the globe and the seeming infinity of the natural world”, the researchers say they wanted to provide an objective and rigorous measure of the reality of the balance between man and nature.[..]
[..] Their research shows that human activity including production of concrete, metal, plastic, bricks and asphalt has brought the world to a crossover point where human-made mass – driven mostly by enhanced consumption and urban development – exceeds the overall living biomass on Earth. On average, every person in the world is responsible for the creation of human-made matter equal to more than their bodyweight each week, the paper published in Nature says. The research found that the stamp of humanity has been increasing in size rapidly since the beginning of the 20th century, doubling every 20 years. The researchers support a proposal to name the current epoch as Anthropocene, reflecting the abrupt and considerable impact of human activity.[..]
Way past carrying capacity we are..
I feel valuing these more will help the scenario play out better for everyone.
Care takers, laborers of all kinds, plumbers, you get the idea.
We all get old. Want your care from the lowest bidder, or worn to the bone family, or from people secure enough for it to be a labor of love, compassion?
The lowest bidder may care, as will the frazzled family. But acting on that may not turn out how everyone intends.
Some of us will pay nicely. A majority won't. Can't due to cost and lack of availability.
Valuing those basic labors higher is a direct economic stimulus. Demand backed by real dollars.
People need enough to buy the stuff, or they don't buy the stuff.
Same for services.
High automation, without valuing basic labors well = lower demand = less money available to profit = lack of demand for automation.
I don't understand your last point, why would there be lower demand for high automation? What do you mean "valuing basic labors well" in the context of automation?
Who buys the product so automated?
More complete automation is ultra expensive.
Wages, in general, are flat. Cost and risk exposure on the rise in many parts of the world, and in the US in particular.
This is a real barrier to more complete automation.
Maybe give people money, health care, lower cost and risk exposure now?
Or, maybe value labors differently?
Or?
And sure, that can be done, but again we're talking about automation currently, not a 4 hour work day.
Some simple robots are cheap, mostly mechanical.
So, just making one overlaps both our points of view.
Setting mechanical ones aside, the programming, test, safety, and depending on what is needed, interactions between multiple ones is very expensive!
A seat of software can cost a years wage for an assembly line worker, and the people needed to do this work tend to be highly educated and expensive as well.
That can change, and maybe will as tech advances and more advanced computation, sensing and such continue to scale.
But, for the foreseeable future, doing that work is expensive and time consuming. And the product of it tends to be fairly rigid.
Changes are not cheap either, though they can be a smaller fraction of the original build, depending on both the change and how robust the initial build was.
Maintenance is a factor too, as is aging systems and the software footprint required.
I have experience with these industrial machines (FANUC and the like), and they definitely cost less over time than people do, but only at scale and on well defined tasks in well defined conditions.
The initial investment is a lot more than people.
Where there is any "turbulence", task change, part change, condition change, people do prove far more efficient.
As a general rule, robots that are more capable, in the sense of fully replacing skilled people, are a lot more expensive.
Where the tasks require less of people, and conditions are constant, they are much cheaper.
In my manufacturing career, 80's and 90's I spent time automating and training people to exceed automation performance. Have been on both sides of the discussion. Improvement just is not cheap.
Today a lot more is possible, but the basic dynamics remain unchanged. We are far away from being able to generally replace people.
And we flat out are not capable of that where the labor involves taking care of one another and or performing the many basic labors we all depend on far more than we realize.
This is why I make a point of suggesting we value basic labor differently, and in general, higher.
We need it, for one. People, like the HN audience, are not cheap and what we can do is not common. We get valued for that, and there is downward pressure on it all generally.
However, if we suddenly have to perform basics ourselves, our output goes way down, and that too is expensive. Having more of our time available is worth far more than the compensation is for basic labor.
Most people are not like us, and the training needed, assuming the basic skill is present, is expensive as well.
Most jobs are basic labors too. That means most wages are not contributing to demand, and as those numbers rise, with costs and risks, the issues grow more acute.
An example for a small scale farm would be weeding between vegetable rows. An example for a larger scale orchard that is 1000 acres, automation means precision ag(reducing toxic/unnecessary inputs, leading to $ savings, environmental conservation, minimizing collateral damage..like spraying during night time instead of flying crop dusters during night time, supply chain efficiencies and preventing waste.
Some jobs shouldn’t exist at all for human labors regardless of cost of automation.
Money is a man made construct. When we say ‘it would be more expensive to automate’, the statement is an artificial truth.
Otoh, human beings, their health, welfare, habitat, nature and environmental impacts are all real.
I wish to see all low paying manual labours end. Maybe someone will pull a plough to harvest potatoes as a hobby. And that ought to be for fun. Not for our food(essential for life as we can’t synthesize our own food) or for a living wage.
I hope that in my lifetime, our food production goes mostly..if not entirely from human labour to mechanical and robotic automation.
If it costs more, so be it. Money is an IDEA.
Expensive = real resources and real labor that someone is required to prioritize for automation as opposed to something else.
Everything that is reinvested from the gross margins goes back into the economy for growth and jobs.
But with automation, it will not go up in the beginning but will eventually grow only when automation gains outstrips hiring costs.
I suspect Amazon has the capability to bring in more automation and cut existing jobs for increasing margins. They are just keeping the jobs on for now. There is no need for them to keep hiring like they do. A lot..not all..can be amenable to automation.
That’s just one example. I am sure it’s true for Uber and Airbnb and the like.
More 20 hour/week jobs. With more young people educated and coming out of schools..and a raising population, this is how economy keeps chugging.
When Amazon builds more warehouse hubs, there is construction, more automation jobs, more drivers, more consumption, more taxes and more revenue. Most important ..more jobs.
What is an acceptable alternative?
It’s a juggle. They are managing well so far. With a low profit margin. And they look pretty good.
The fact is when it isn't shared in higher proportion with labor, hours go up and those dollars are not available to support demand either.
Taking less is the alternative.
And lets be real, nobody wants to do that, and there are great reasons too.
This is why I said it is a political question above.
Right now market rules permit current behavior.
If we want different behavior, those rules must change.
We can compete with existing money with government investment in the people, lands, infrastructure and do so with the behavior intended. This will pull others that direction, though not all.
We can redistribute with more aggression.
We can mandate compensation differently.
We can mandate hours worked.
Lots of possibilities.
The way I see it, growing unrest leads to national priority discussions, new policy.
Or, if there is growing happiness, that will not happen.
It will resolve though. One way or the other.
Depopulation by nature or politics/oligarchs is a guarantee. The only thing we can do is shift away from a money economy.
Finding solutions with redistribution of wealth and money are castles built on sand. You can’t live in them. Automation is coming. AGI ..if it happens in our lifetime..won’t care about us.
Fact is we are very far away from that, and just where do those who want to be "rid of unproductive people" expect them to go?
Most won't be productive, and one would think they have something to say about all that.
And what they say and how they say it won't be pretty, unless there is a reasonable, human answer to these kinds of questions.
We are all in this together. "Those other people" are humans, same as anyone and the meaning of "productive" can, does, and should vary widely.
‘We’ will soon be 10 billion.. and there will be more UTism..’Us Vs Them’ism ...than ‘we are in this together’ when resource scarcity sets in..
I remember reading sometime ago that every time there was a drought or famine, war always followed. This was true of tribes in Africa after years of drought as it is also true for the latest Syrian War.
Wars are data points. If we make each small or big war or tribal clash or even invading hordes or footnote battles as individual data points, I would hazard a guess that a famine or drought or some natural disaster or resource scarcity event would be clustered around the data points.
Resources are not evenly distributed around the world. Sadly, I see very few possibilities for a happy endings for us.
We can delay it. One way to do it is to make natural resources as currency. The wealth of a nation is its natural resource(including Human Resources) rather than frok speculative markets based upon consumption. In fact, consumption patterns that outstrip regeneration of resources would make a country poor rather than wealthy. It’s a way to flip our system.
Other changes would also be required, of course. But the thought isn’t well formed yet. I will revisit this when I have given it more thought. Cheers!
The scenario is already playing out in other countries.
1 - I actually need to learn through work so I have to take as much work as possible. My biggest complain so far is that HQ took some of our work so there is not that much ownership left.
2 - If you count meetings as work, and taking rest 90% of the time during a meeting as work (10% of the time you are asking meaningful questions and getting feedbacks), then I'm actually working 8-10 hours per day and don't really feel huge strain.
In general I'm OK with others with shorter period of work, as long as I get more responsibility and tools to play with :D