The whole thing has been a very, very expensive, entirely farcical (laughable if it wasn't going to royally bugger large swathes of the country) exercise in nihilism.
Bitter much? Yes. Yes I am.
The whole thing has been a very, very expensive, entirely farcical (laughable if it wasn't going to royally bugger large swathes of the country) exercise in nihilism.
Bitter much? Yes. Yes I am.
It essentially makes compliance to EU law optional for companies operating in the UK. That's a huge advantage. Choose to trade on EU terms with the single market, or choose to trade on other terms with different international targets.
That may not be precisely what you want, but it's not a bad deal for the UK, it's just a different set of terms.
Plus, the EU will do better without us. We've always just complained and delayed their desire for further deep integration between countries.
To paraphrase Boris' quote of 'Having a successful, independent UK over the channel isn't a bad thing for the EU', well neither is it bad for the UK to have an independent EU to trade with, where they can crack on with what they want to do without us disrupting it.
Edit: people seem to be taking this as me 'selling' brexit. Just wanted to discuss the situation, at least it kicked off a chat!
When the UK was in the EU, it was never a requirement for goods sold to non-EU countries to meet EU regulations. On that front, nothing has changed: selling to EU, you need to meet EU laws; selling elsewhere you need to meet theirs.
This is why leaving the customs union is key to any reasonable Brexit deal.
I'm not even trying to argue that Brexit is good necessarily, but more rationalizing why the deal always had to be what it is. Anything else other than staying in the EU isn't a beneficial option for the UK - unless joining EFTA, or similar.
No, we trade with those countries on the terms of our trade agreements with those countries, which will more or less be the higher of each partners' standards on each involved aspect (unless there is no trade agreement at all, then it's WTO terms which are the same the EU would get).
The only realistic difference to trade policy being out of the EU is that we can lower our standards with respect to the EU when negotiating deals with third countries. The EU already had some of the highest standards in the world for workers rights, food safety and animal welfare and safety, and I don't think we'll be selflessly rising above those any time soon.
I get that you can save some pages in a trade agreement that would otherwise be dedicated to protecting Spanish oranges (insert any other good produced in EU but not in Britain here) but those pages were never of consequence to Britain anyway.
The UK has expressed continued interest in raising animal standards beyond those enforced by the EU - the PM even mentioned it in his speech as an example where the UK will go further in regulation.
Some people believed that too - although rather fewer believe it now.
Now - how that works if say the UK raises a standard and the impact upon EU imports. For example the EU regulations for `carper dust sucker` was questioned by Dyson for being flawed. Now if the UK does it's own standards that have to be followed for `carpet dust sucker` to be sold in the UK that exceeds EU standards then that could be interesting.
So the prospect of a trade war via standards used to limit external competition and sudo subsidise companies in that cunning way - could be something we could well see down the line. That equally could work both ways.
Which all makes how this trade agreement is worded in need of scrutiny as rules to protect one way, will also word both ways in such agreements to lock-in standards. Now if they refer to just EU standards as a base and no reference to equally protection to UK standards or whatever is the higher. Small details like that could have some interesting ramifications later on.
One thing is for sure - we are still a long way off from a standard global shoe size that is used by all. Which say's little and lots about trade and standards country to country.
Now the UK can trade with those countries on its own terms rather than involving the EU.
That's a pretty big difference, and countries DO want to trade with the huge UK market.
Er no, we get to trade with them on their terms, having just lost the benefits of any preferential terms negotiated by the EU. Those “overall terms depending on EU trade deals” were overwhelmingly favourable terms negotiated thanks to the immense negotiating power of the whole EU trade bloc. We’ve now lost almost all of that.
And bear in mind a lot of these EU trade deals weren’t forced on us, we played a leading role in negotiating those deals ourselves. Now we’ve lost the benefit of a lot of that hard work.
Fortunately we have negotiated maintaining trade access with some countries, including Canada and Japan under our former EU arrangements. On many other cases though I believe including India, no such luck so far.
They will be different agreements, obviously - while they may be lesser overall they can at least be more targeted to our specific interests rather than a whole bloc, which may yield some advantages for the UK.
Again, not trying to say this is necessarily better than staying in, but it does have its own advantages as well as compromises.
You’re not selling me on it.
Now, it'll be up to the UK to negotiate the specific terms with those markets, while being able to access free trade with the single market.
Absolutely agree it's absurd that the deal comes so late with basically 0 time to really prepare, but negotiations between blocs, countries and even small domestic businesses always go right down to the wire, just a human thing.
Unless you count tax evasion and money laundering - something the UK was doing okay at already - there simply aren't any.
There is no promised land here, no sunlit uplands, no glorious future as an independent trading nation. In reality the UK has just pulled the rug out from under its most productive service sector and cut out the heart of its tax base.
And it doesn't have the skills or the culture to develop new service markets, because it's thinking like a 19th century imperial power running a 19th century economy, not like an interconnected smaller power with significant unique skills and talents in a mixed 21st century economy.
When you sell a plane or a computer or a tractor to a foreign country you don't just sell an item that needs to be shipped. You also sell training, spares, continuing support, consultancy. and business development.
These were relatively friction-free when freedom of movement was a thing. Now they're much harder, because they rely on employees visiting customers and possibly staying with them for long periods - which can't be done with paperwork and restrictions.
This "deal" makes all of this much harder for EU trade, and does nothing at all to make it easier in Rest of World.
And all of this held up for weeks by arguments about fish, which are barely a rounding error in GDP terms.
It's a lot easier to get a trade deal with the UK, where you're only dealing with one government with a much more specific set of interests.
Unfortunately this kind of resistance always caves to internal pressure. Similar to the resistance to software patents by Poland.
Talks have been ongoing for some time now, and I would expect a deal to materialize in the coming years.
We’ve always just struck trade agreements with these countries until now. E.g. we export petrol and medicines to China and import electrical gizmos.
An FTA with the EU and the US (in that order) could make sense though.
Australia’s a perfect trading partner in a lot of ways but it’s just too far away in a world that cares about reducing carbon footprints.
On one hand, yeah. But on the other hand, an article floating around in the last few weeks pointed out that modern container shipping is really cost effective these days.
Apparently container ships have also been looking at modern/environment friendly approaches for a while now too (including big wind kites(?) I think). So, that's somewhat likely to further improve over time as well.
What the deal does provide is a different relationship. It's absolutely not just 'being defacto in the EU'.
How you take that depends on your own political opinion, but it's certainly not the same as before!
A direct quote from The Financial Times [1]:
"Was the UK able to do this [provide emergency authorisation for the Pfizer vaccine] because of Brexit?
No."
Sources:
[1]: The Financial Times - https://www.ft.com/content/021720c2-157e-40b4-b2f9-33515032f...
[2]: UK legislation - https://www.legislation.gov.uk/uksi/2012/1916/contents/made
Those talking about “sovereignty” as if there is such a thing as sovereign vs non-sovereign nations are a minority of Brexit voters and did not need to be pandered to. Unfortunately they made up a good proportion of the ruling class.
Only time will tell, depends hugely on how the UK decides to differ in it's regulations.
I doubt it would be popular, personally.
I always wanted a good solid answer to that so i could ask what stopped us changing them from within the EU but i never got past the first hurdle.
The EU rule is minimum 15%, the UK choses 20% of its own accord.
But that's not the interesting bit, the interesting bit is the follow-up question: "what stops the UK changing this from within the EU?"
The answer for this one is nothing - in fact, EU states have already agreed that all states will have full VAT setting powers from 2022.
>> biofuels directive
You'd need to give more context here - Boris Johnson has committed £12 billion partly in support of going beyond the requirements of this directive as part of the so called "new green revolution".
What exactly is the conflict with the biofuels directive? If anything it's weaker than the current UK Gov's expressed desires in this space?
>> directives concerning tendering
Yep - this is a bona fide one.
The thing that concerns me with the biofuels directive is it's requirement for 5% of petrol to be made up of biofuel. As the cheapest source of this is palm oil, we then end up contributing to the destruction of habitats in Indonesia in order to grow palm oil to burn in our cars. The EU does recognise this and I'm sure I read that come 2030, that will be disallowed, but then they will likely need to use Soy or some other oil that will cause even more destruction.
I don't have any sources for this to hand and I may well have some of this information incorrect. It's been about five years since I researched much of this.
So if you’re lowering the bar, you’re doing it for the UK primarily. But our trading standards were higher then the EU base ones. So, not sure what we gain.
But yes, if you produce goods not destined for the UK market, it was completely fine for you not to meet EU standards.
You can directly negotiate and agree terms with any other country freely without consulting the EU, where before the terms were set by the EU.
Now we’re a country of 70 million in a world of 7 billion trying to negotiate within a world dominated by bigger and more powerful nations and trading blocks.
We went from a big player in the biggest block to a medium player all alone.
But as a huge player, the EU also had to make more generic deals, for lack of a better term. It had to be beneficial for all EU countries.
As a smaller player, the UK can be more specialized and agile in its trade deals. Is that better than being in the EU? Only time will tell.
It's really to early to tell how this will shake out, but it's obviously as silly to assume either that in general UK will be able negotiate better deals on its own than as part of the EU, or that it won't be able to negotiate any good deals.
You gain some you lose some, on both sides.
We have no idea really how it will play out, depends hugely on how the UK govt acts in the next few years.
I think there is some deeper truth in this. UK is setting itself up to be in a very similar role, i.e. Canada::USA -> UK::EU.
When you are the junior partner in a tightly coupled trade partnership, you have a lot of nominal freedom in practice you are going to steered by the larger player, both intentionally and not.
Who was it that said, "When America sneezes, Canada gets a cold"? I think that was originally a european saying, so we've come full circle.
I'm not sure people in the UK have really come to terms with this, yet. There is no plausible return path to, say, pre-war UK on the world stage. There might be room for another Canada though.
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Comprehensive_Economic_and_T...
I think my general point stands.
What connects the two points is that they hold similar appeal in theory, and are entirely meaningless in practice. The UK has signed a number of trade agreements already, and none of them contain meaningful differences to the EU agreements the UK was previously part of.
As long as they do not export to the EU or do not sell half-products to firms that export to the EU.
Most exports from UK companies go to the EU, and will have to comply with EU regulations.
For those firms also exporting to non-EU countries, chances are it won’t be worth the hassle to make both EU-compliant and non-compliant products (as an example, look how the RoHS (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Restriction_of_Hazardous_Subst...) drove the world to ban lead in soldering)
That wasn’t even worth it for global electronics companies to keep producing non-RoHS-compliant electronics, and quite a few of them produce at scales that few others do.
Whatever you and others might believe, don't try and spin Brexit as an act of nobility designed to protect the EU from the all-powerful, magnanimous British empire of yore. This agreement, and the past four years, has been an incredible loss and have set the UK back by a good 40 years. We have been in the throes of populism for half a decade and are only digging deeper into it.
While I can appreciate an attempt at objective analysis of the deal, that's not what has been discussed so far. And, in all honesty, the occasion itself is momentous enough that it's a dis-service to discount any emotions around the affair.
This isn't a cause for celebration for a calculable majority of the UK, after all.
Exactly that - we have as a country, never really embraced the whole EU direction and dare say that short stretch of water between Mainland Europe and the UK - has historically set a different cultural mindset. Equally the whole WW1+2 experiences would of also had some rippling legacy impact I dare say.
However you look at it, if you have a disruptive employee and they want to leave, wish them the best and both will be better of.
But certainly be interesting what reforms the EU will do in the comming years, certainly that whole area of reform was conceded by many including Donald Tusk right after the 2016 vote and as last stood, was being driven by Macron - though only once the UK has left. So be interesting how that progresses and how that manifests.
Also ... being part of a a trade bloc always has benefits and positives, but the two key negatives touted as 'deal-breakers' in the Brexit negotiations have been related to (1) sovereignty and (2) concessions. A few weeks ago Peter Verovšek wrote a short but pretty good article on effectively the illusion of sovereignty (https://www.socialeurope.eu/brexit-and-the-misunderstanding-...) for the UK, and in terms of concessions it seems that a small nation with limited resources hardly makes a net loss by being part of a larger trade bloc: access to a huge market while exposing a small market of your own.
Same here. I moved to the UK years ago (UK ancestry) specifically for access to the EU. eg Danish gf (now ex), working in EU both in person and remotely, UK/EU start up was in progress
To have my EU hmmm... "citizenship" be removed (when I damn well wanted to keep it), by the other half of the UK population just because they don't care for the EU.
There are no words that can adequately convey the sense of betrayal I feel over this.
It has destroyed many years of my life effort thus far, and has taken considerable time to start recovering from (moved back to Australia, now rebuilding, etc).
Certainly comes across to me as a very strong sense of personal entitlement, and also disrespect towards the democratic decisions of your adopted country.
Fine for you to feel disappointed. But 'betrayed' is really too much.
Personally, I wasn't even aware it was a thing. As for "democratic decisions"... just wow. I'd be on board with that if the info that had been given to the public for the referendum was above board.
However, it was just pure marketing bullshit. Also, the idiot government literally told people it was only an advisory thing. Which was (frankly) sensible. So, I didn't really pay much attention to it. You know, with actually getting a start up off the ground taking up most of my time.
Only to find out that somewhere along the line the gov backflipped and told people it would honour the result. Like... WTF? With with no guidelines about it needing to be a clear majority. eg 2/3 or 3/4 of population voting for it. Instead, they've just pulled the completely incompetent crap we've seen over the last several years. _sigh_
Personally, I'd even volunteered a lot of my time years prior, helping the UK gov (behind the scenes) with policy decisions re: OSS. That's probably why I feel "betrayed". eg you help out a group, and get shafted later on. :/
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/European_Research_Group
> posh muppets in the ERG stand to make a wad of cash from their crony mates
Unity is always a good thing, but hwhen views diverge then inaction results. An EU without the UK will let both take more decisive action in their policy areas.
The language differential is by far the most eminent obstacle standing in the way of a closer integration or even nationhood.
Ironically, the UK leaving might've opened up an opportunity here since that hypothetical official language now indeed could be English, with no dominant country having that language as its own official language anymore.
Sliding towards becoming a single country is a wholly different matter, though, because that involves the people. Even citizens in most staunchly pro-European countries such as Germany, France, or the Netherlands culturally still see themselves as citizens of the respective country rather than Europe or the EU.
The most relevant factor in that respect is language. Most Germans don't speak French. Most of the French don't speak German. Hence, cultural and economic exchange might happen at the upper echelons of society but as for everyday life citizens of EU member states still pretty much keep to themselves, for the simple reason that they don't understand each other.
In the US, this means people in New York weighing in on what should be taught in schools in Alabama. And it’s a state of affairs nobody finds particularly satisfactory. But once you unify the finances there is a tremendous push toward that kind of political integration.
For example, consider refugee policy. I suspect folks in Spain and folks in Hungary don’t see eye to eye. Now, they get to have their own immigration policy. Further integration could change that.
I voted remain, and I blame the remainers for messing it all up.
We opted out of the working time directive, the Schengen agreement, the Euro, the charter of fundamental rights, the social chapter. We even had an explicit opt out from the treaty goal of an “ever closer union”. This narrative that were were being coerced into things against our will is simply not true. Yes we sometimes gave up painful concessions, but we also gained valuable benefits. It was always a negotiated outcome.
Total nonsense. The EU set laws the UK had to follow, and the ECJ had the power to overrule UK courts.
I have not made any claim about those laws causing me trouble, but the ability of the EU to force laws on the UK certainly troubled me.
1) The claim that the EU has never forced the UK to do anything. Sheer nonsense. This is the claim I disputed all those levels above;
2) The claim that laws the EU has historically forced upon on the UK have been harmful.
There are plenty of examples of the latter (take the Tampon Tax as one [0]), but that’s not the claim I was making.
I haven’t advanced the latter claim because it is irrelevant.
Providing evidence of historic harm is not a prerequisite for principled opposition to the EU having the power to impose laws and overrule national courts.
[0] https://commonslibrary.parliament.uk/research-briefings/sn01...
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Voting_in_the_Council_of_the_E...
also: if it is used the other members use "enhanced co-operation" to bypass the veto, like they did in 2011 when Cameron used his
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2011/dec/09/david-cameron-...
There’s nothing particularly special about the concept. It’s no different in principle than the WTO dispute resolution process, the International Court of Justice at the UN, or any number of other international arbitration, dispute resolution or treaty enforcement mechanisms past or present. All of those have the agreed power yo adjudicate on whether domestic UK laws are in violation of our treaty agreements.