Let the ultra-rich and influential skip the line for Covid-19 vaccines?
statnews.com
statnews.com
American's love celebrities, so if celebrities pay for access, the common American will want what is temporarily denied from them.
There is a historical precedent, Antoine Parmentier tricked the French people into adopting the potato in 1786, by placing armed guards around potato fields: https://www.damninteresting.com/cry-havoc-and-let-slip-the-s...
They should try a similar trick now. It seems many French people are reluctant to get vaccinated.
Initial results [0] on Moderna’s are on 95 participants in a trial with 30k [1] due to run to 10/22. I’ll be happy to monitor results and ADE rates before taking the plunge although I’m really excited about the promise of mRNA.
0. https://www.nih.gov/news-events/news-releases/promising-inte...
Say you got a million (or 10 million) people to pay extra (it'd be lot of people at that point); the manufacturing demand wouldn't go up any, and they would probably just delay delivery of some other doses for a week (or a month).
1) The money would go to the manufacturer.
2) The supply limiting factor can be addressed in a reasonable timeline
3) The demand will exist at the time when supply is increased.
4) The price is a limiting factor.
As far as I know, lead times for this drug manufacturing equipment is usually >1 yr and the demand will not be there when it arrives. All of the vaccines currently cost $2-20.
The other option is paying with tax-money...
btw, another view: why fix it to 20,000x? why not auction?
It’s not even clear to me that this is such a terrible way to allocate this scarce resources - if the NBA wants to spend a billion dollars on some of the first doses so they can go to work (and subsidize 50m other doses in the process) that doesn’t seem so wrong? For every 100 doses auction off 1 to pay for the other 99 (maybe even more!).
An interesting point, and one made in another STAT article [1] from earlier this month - which is linked to from the more recent article:
‘There absolutely will be a black market’: How the rich and privileged can skip the line for Covid-19 vaccines
[1] https://www.statnews.com/2020/12/03/how-rich-and-privileged-...
Secondly "this isn't political! It's either a free-market solution or a tax". No. It's not a free-market solution, it's the governemnt setting an arbitrary price for a product they have a legal monopoly on, it's also not a tax since it's entirely optional for people to pay it.
Thirdly, the comparison to Delaney is massively off - Delaney's plan would save nearly $100Bn compared to the current solution of selling the vaccine and congress being forced to hand out $2000 stimulus checks. Becuase the checks weren't really about getting people to take the vaccine, it was about providing the stimulus checks that are already going to happen, but tying them to something.
Finally, if you're rich enough to give $100k for a vaccine you're probably rich enough to find a way of getting it somewhere else, so really what we're saying is that you're asking them to make a massive donation for something that they don't need fron you.
edit: I don't mean it will happen in the way the article describes, rather it will happen because the ultra rich tend to be friends with powerful people who have access to these types of things.
There might be a market scheme for allocating the virus that does align with society's incentives, but I would bet dollars to pennies that that solution is basically just democratically elected government.
Besides I'm not sure supply constraint would be a big problem, i think there are quite lot of people that understand the actual risk of getting seriously sick from covid and wouldn't be that eager to get a vaccine.
Use the vaccine to protect the people who are actually in danger. If a billionaire gets covid they can get the super special sci-fi insta-cure that every other person in power gets.
The solution to a public health communications issue is not 'get influencers on board' it's to amplify the science communicators who are already doing it, and public policy.
After all, it's the strategy that allowed us to feed and shelter a planet of 8 billion.
But in reality the vaccine distribution is made through policy and politics. Because this strategy worked so well back in March, with the PPE. If this doesn't prove that we live under socialism, I don't know what will.
So check if you have a friend in high places, if you are one of the chosen ones. Because in socialism resources are allocated through the good old power networks. Relations, bureaucracy and so on. Who you know becomes more important than what you know, who you do more important than what you do. It's a brave new world and I hope your dossier is perfect.
But don't worry: you'll easily buy a dose on the black market.
When will the manufacturers backorder obligations be filled so they sell the vaccine on the open market? Do they have any contractual requirements to sell through government determined channels?
https://www.fda.gov/media/144636/download
"ModernaTX, Inc. will supply Moderna COVID‑19 Vaccine either directly or through authorized distributor(s), to emergency response stakeholders as directed by the U.S. government, including the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) and/or other designee, for use consistent with the terms and conditions of this EUA;"
So they don't have permission to market it at all really.
https://investors.modernatx.com/news-releases/news-release-d...
Look at how Stanford Medicine allocated its allocation of the vaccine. It allocated it to administrators first then apologized when it was exposed. What is left unsaid is that they never gave up their power to decide who gets the vaccine.
Have you heard of anyone giving up their place in line for the vaccine?
https://wight.consulting/2020/05/19/marketing-and-stolen-pot...
There are five more manufacturers which were funded by operation warp seed and are various stages of development.
There is also the Chinese vaccine SinoVac, which has stated there will be capacity to manufacture 600 million doses a year by the end of 2020, with another 350 million doses/yr in Indonesia and Brazil.
I would expect the even moderately wealthy to be able to cut in line and acquire it whether or not they admit to it publicly.
https://investor.regeneron.com/news-releases/news-release-de...
This doesn’t contain stem cells but was tested on fetal tissue:
https://www.verywellhealth.com/regeneron-antibody-cocktail-s...
And, of course, antibodies aren't made from stem cells, so I don't actually know what the poster is on about here.
[0] https://www.globaldata.com/eli-lillys-covid-19-mab-bamlanivi...
Second, are manufacturers interested in filling that 6 billion gap? They can already afford to build the infrastructure and make more vaccines, but it doesn’t do any good if there is nobody to buy them and no way to get them to patients.
Open auction, with price going as high as it wants, right down to zero.
Special categories (e.g. multiple co-morbidities, medical workers) cut to the front, and pay market rate.
Let businesses foot much of the bill. If I need to pay $1000 to reopen my factory, it might be a good investment. Free market will allocate resources.
For extra credit: https://www.tpr.org/business/2020-12-17/tyson-foods-fires-7-...
But, offering the middle/upper income class a $1000 chance to jump ahead could generate just as much money with a much larger population getting protection.
For $100 mil you can buy a small biotech lab and create your own mRNA vaccine. They are not that complicated compared to classical vaccines, and the testing was basically done already by Pfizer/Moderna.
And for much less, surely there will be ways to "source" doses. It's ridiculous to think that many rich people will pay $100 mil for a dose.
Publicize how desperate the rich are to get the vaccine and that 60% willingness to get vaccinated will go up (which is a large part of what the article said). I think charging money to skip, just causes a whole raft of other problems. Let the elites think they are pulling strings and just give it to them.
Why?
>Let the elites think they are pulling strings and just give it to them.
But why not give it to them, but also try to extract money from them at the same time?
Therefore, if an 80-year-old is 300x more likely to die than 37-year-old Martin Shkreli, moving a dose from the former and to the latter is inefficient.
I work in tech, I work from home and can have stuff delivered. Put me at the end of the line.
That's not virtue signaling, or not ONLY virtue signaling - they get priority due to continuity of government laws. See https://www.rollcall.com/2020/12/13/white-house-congress-jud...
Now if they had integrity, the ones that dismissed, downplayed, ignored, refused to wear masks, etc. should have skipped their dose and given it to someone else.
>immunized publicly as a politician at the same time as your risk group
That would be nice except Congress is fairly old, average age is 57.6 in the House and 62.9 in the Senate. Not sure there are enough available doses for this to occur.
But no, this is someone suggesting celebrities and billionaires should be the first people we protect.
In a healthy functioning society, we'd protect the most vulnerable first -- elderly, front line workers, grocery store workers, etc. And we'd find the funding to make that happen either by taxing the ultra wealthy or just printing money because it's a pandemic and they are relatively rare events and the cost to vaccinate everyone is relatively fixed.
We have plenty of elderly celebrities who could still be at the front of the line cheering on the vaccine.
The approach the author suggests seems like government with extra steps to me.
Well, in your idea of a healthy functioning society.
EDIT: the above sounds probably too harsh. But the real question is:
Why is that bad?
Take also into account that vaccinating celebs is just counting beans in the whole process.
One way we handle scarcity in capitalism is by charging for things. Would you be willing to let a rich guy pay $10 million for the vaccine.. if it meant a 1000 teachers could get it for free next week?
It is basically a tax on the rich except it's opt in.
That the rich person receives the vaccine for their money, ie a material consideration, makes this not philanthrophy by definition - it's a sale. Or, put another way, me buying an overpriced handmade christmas ornament from Etsy isn't philanthropy either, even if I'm choosing to really overpay.
Also, philanthropy often gives you stuff. The WWF gives me a nice stuffed animal and thank you card, for instance. And plenty of wealthy donors mysteriously get their kids into colleges.
Taxes are taking wealth for government functions, whether it's against an individual, a company, etc. When you buy a pack of cigarettes (in the US) you're being taxed - the same goes for gasoline. Overcharging for the vaccine intentionally and using that to give out free vaccine doses is by definition a tax, in the same way that any consumption tax is a tax.
I don't think that's what it's saying though. It's saying by allocating ~500k vaccines (or as few as ~100k), we can raise $50 billion dollars, and show people that other "influential" people see the vaccine not only as safe, but as something that should be sought after. In the grand scheme of things, that represents a very small portion of the total supply, and hence I'd argue the upside ($50B + more people getting the vaccine) would be worth it.
Also, if this was a cause the billionaires believed in, they could just give $500,000 to vaccination efforts and also give up their spot in line. Nothing stopping them from just being charitable without expecting anything in exchange.
Of course, the naïve view is that there is one known "healthy, functioning society" and that others are optimizing for greed or some other vice.