A new phrase: “The Tertullian effect”
To read more about the origin of this quote: https://aeon.co/ideas/i-believe-because-it-is-absurd-christianitys-first-meme
I was searching for a phrase to express an attitude I see in both markets and politics. It’s an attitude in which the more absurd position is the one preferred. This is not only because the absurd position aligns with one’s prior beliefs, but also because one is getting enough confirmation from an irrational environment that they are not forced to abandon it.
For example, the stock market defying rationale by making an all time high while GDP tanks, unemployment soars and mass evictions are right around the corner, means that the stock market can only ever go up. It’s an absurd position but recently, also the correct one.
I also see this effect in the way that Trump devotees concoct increasingly elaborate and absurd explanations for every misstep he has taken. Every gaffe is not a gaffe, but part of of an intricate “4D chess” plan.
It’s something like the opposite of Occam’s razor. Or, something like the backfire effect taken to an extreme, where contradictory evidence not only cements your view, but causes you to take an increasingly convoluted position to defend it.