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Comment by beaker52 | Hacker News Reader

Also a Londoner. Whilst I've observed greater mask compliance, shops, cafes, bars and restaurants have been packed. I've been to bars freely serving alcohol with no need to buy food, just like the old days. Definitely seeing rule breaking.

And I've had a friend who wanted to beat the travel restrictions by leaving London before midnight. That's rule beating.

I see it everywhere.

A PSA because it's important: I can promise future you would rather remember "dang, do you remember that shit Christmas we had to stay home?" over "dang, do you remember that shit Christmas that someone accidentally gave Mum covid and she died because we REALLY wanted Christmas with the family in the middle of a pandemic". It really isn't worth it. Not right now. Just be patient and wait.

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I’m genuinely quite shocked that bars are still serving alcohol at all. A quick glance at a typical bar bathroom should tell you everything you need to know about how safety conscious everyone is going to be after they’ve had 3 drinks.

Go and gather in groups where all are below 50 with no underlying conditions, instead.

Some of you will still get Long Covid, which may leave you with permanent breathing issues and other health problems.

The biggest lie is that if you're under 30 you're immune. You're not - not even slightly. You're far less likely to die than someone who is 85 and obese with diabetes and high blood pressure. But no one knows what the long term health implications are for younger people who make a partial recovery. And there's been a non-negligible number of those.

This is interesting. What are the stats (percentages) on those who get "Long Covid" by age group?

I don't have the age breakdown but serious/long Covid is about 15% of cases, which is potentially millions of people in most countries if we let the epidemic rip through. Symptoms include mental fog, loss of concentration, extreme fatigue, loss of smell..

This is why the idea of chasing herd immunity without a vaccine has always been misguided

You seem to be combining “serious” and “long” cases together. We already know that the vast majority of “serious” cases occur in the elderly/sickly, so your statistic of 15% is useless FUD.

Given the rates, though, it basically seems worth the risk if the alternative is to lose a year of say, your 20's. You have to weigh up the expectation costs in quality-adjusted life years, with associated error bars.

Regarding your PSA: In the mean time Taiwan has not had a quarantine at all, and has been free of (internal) Covid for over 200 days. Other SE-Asian countries are all doing very well, Japan for example does not have quarantine either.

European lock-down policies have been a monumental failure. Not good enough to stop the spread. But ruining the economy (and everybody's fun). It is truly remarkable that Europeans agree with being locked away for nearly one year now with little to show for, while other societies achieve much better results with different, and less drastic measures. No curiosity at all, it seems, even to understand why Taiwan, Japan and other countries succeed! SMH

Some countries have done better than others. Spain, France, and Italy have all done badly, but Germany and Portugal have much better outcomes than the UK.

The point about test and trace plus limited lockdowns is that you can play whack-a-mole with clusters, which does a far better job of preventing transmission than anything short of a vaccine.

Countries with aggressive test and trace and compulsory self-isolation have done best of all - and with limited economic damage.

None of this should be rocket science, but apparently it's not a priority for the UK government which has literally used a deadly pandemic as an excuse to hand out billions of pounds of public cash to mates, cronies, and party donors. With no expectation of any effective service provision in return.

Literally. That is not exaggeration in any way. It's on the record - including some court records - that the UK gov has been doing this.

  aggressive test and trace 
  compulsory self-isolation

Yes.

An interesting question is why that has not been possible in European countries. A high-ranking politician of my acquaintance stated privately, and very clearly, that it was exaggerated concern for privacy (of a population that has no concern using the products of Facebook, Google and similar trackers, not to mention mobile phones), stoked by a "privacy maffia", made meaningful test and trace (along the lines of Taiwan and other SE Asian states) political suicide, which is why him and others, despite knowing better, did not bother floating this.

> the under 20s almost completely ignore covid restrictions, and so does a substantial part of the under 30s. I can't even blame them as it doesn't affect them.

I think it's less because the disease doesn't affect them, and more because the restrictions do. If you're living as a family unit then restrictions are tough, but it's something else entirely if you're a single person living alone (or with people you don't like).

Indeed I've seen a similar attitude (although perhaps less actual rule breaking) from at-risk old people saying damn the rules, they'd like to see their relatives.

Not that I think this excuses it.

Londoner here too and I agree with your observations about compliance. Tons of rule breaking. The dance studio next to my dwelling has been running popular dance classes as recently as last night. I think it's mostly an age thing: the under 20s almost completely ignore covid restrictions, and so does a substantial part of the under 30s. I can't even blame them as it doesn't affect them. And they mostly lack an understanding of the concept of asymptomatic carrier. Regarding your PSA: In the mean time Taiwan has not had a quarantine at all, and has been free of (internal) Covid for over 200 days. Other SE-Asian countries are all doing very well, Japan for example does not have quarantine either.

European lock-down policies have been a monumental failure. Not good enough to stop the spread. But ruining the economy (and everybody's fun). It is truly remarkable that Europeans agree with being locked away for nearly one year now with little to show for, while other societies achieve much better results with different, and less drastic measures. No curiosity at all, it seems, even to understand why Taiwan, Japan and other countries succeed! SMH

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