The U.S. has recorded over 250k cases in a day for the first time | Hacker News Reader

The U.S. has recorded over 250k cases in a day for the first time

nytimes.com

61 pointsarkadiyt26 comments

These “cases” are inaccurate as SARS-COV-2 virus detection does not mean people have the disease COVID-19. From the NYT: “In three sets of testing data that include cycle thresholds, compiled by officials in Massachusetts, New York and Nevada, up to 90 percent of people testing positive carried barely any virus, a review by The Times found.”

[1] https://www.nytimes.com/2020/08/29/health/coronavirus-testin...

That's good.

An increase in recorded cases can be attributed to an increase in infection rate only when the increase is not accompanied by more testing. The US tests 1.75-2.0 million people a day. In September that number was 800,000.

To look at infection rate, what you want to look at is percentage of tests given that came back positive, and while numbers will be skewed if you're only testing people with symptoms vs people who ask vs everybody, it is good to see a high test rate and a low positive rate. 250k positive from 1.75-2 million tests is ~15% positive rate.

Also the death rate per positive test being low is a very good thing. That number, according to the CDC, is 0.6% and falling.

> An increase in recorded cases can be attributed to an increase in infection rate only when the increase is not accompanied by more testing

I'm not sure it's that simple. Doesn't the infection rate have an effect on the demand for tests?

I live in Sydney near a testing center. It was empty 2 weeks ago when I drove past, but now that there is a covid outbreak the queue snakes around the block.

Well, if the positive test rate is 15%, most people getting tested aren't getting tested because they have it. If the increase in testing was driven by the infection rate, the percentage of those tested coming back positive would also go up.

15% test positivity rate is insanely high

15% was the positivity rate at the peak of the wave in France: https://www.meteo-covid.com/graphique-taux-de-positivite

What? The positivity rate has gone up since September, even as testing capacity has increased. We've lost ground on testing, it's obvious that there are many more cases now (the number dying each day is clear evidence of this).

https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/covid-data/covidvi...

The very first sentence from your citation:

>Nationally, the overall percentage of respiratory specimens testing positive for SARS-CoV-2, the virus causing COVID-19, decreased from 13.4% during week 49 to 12.2% during week 50.

Yes, week 49 is December, not September.

The decrease you cite is likely the Thanksgiving peak subsiding.

What's also good is that we won't need as much vaccine as originally intended, what with everyone already having had the virus.

If half the people who get covid-19 have no (or very minor) symptoms, does that mean the number infected is at least twice the reported number... 500K per day in the US (since these people won't need to go for a test)? It seems reasonable that it's even more than that due to testing limitations.

Currently just a smidge over 3/4 of the total number of WW2 deaths.

Is Christmas going to be cancelled or is the US just going to let everyone who would have been saved by a vaccine die?

And all that will be left, are those who would have lived anyway, being vaccinated in April.

Some leaks indicated that the White House wanted people to get infected, so the nation can establish herd immunity.

Draw your own conclusions on this one. I think this administration left us to fend for ourselves.

Yawn. I stopped caring about "cases" a long time ago. A "case" has been completely redefined for covid, which means these statics wholly devoid of context.

I’ve got over 300,000 dead countrymen and women who, were they still able, would disagree that the numbers are irrelevant. But go ahead and yawn while 3,000+ people die each day gasping for air.

Yes. It's so bad.

It's really disheartening to see the complete lack of decency from some people here.

Every single person will get COVID-19 at some point. It’s impossible to avoid. Regardless of how they say COVID-19 is transmitted, you will inevitably get it.

The real shame about COVID-19 is how it can affect people so differently, and with varying degrees of consequences.

The news of a new strain is very worrisome.

We’re in this for the next few years. It’s going to get worse before it gets better, health wise and economically. If the virus doesn’t kill people then the financial impact will.

The future across the US and other countries:

https://cms-qz-com.cdn.ampproject.org/i/s/cms.qz.com/wp-cont...

>Every single person will get COVID-19 at some point. It’s impossible to avoid. Regardless of how they say COVID-19 is transmitted, you will inevitably get it.

Simply not true, especially now with vaccinations starting.

I agree. Cases are so rare where I live that even if the vaccine becomes available in a year or so, it seems exceedingly unlikely that I’d get it before then. Some places are not doing all that badly with this virus.

Can you where where you live where the vaccine wouldn’t be available for another year? It seems from then news it will be a matter of months.

Usa for most people 350mil population 100mil doses a year 2 doses pp you do the math

The initial US batches of Pfizer and Moderna total 150 million doses and it's not clear how much more they will be able to sell the US for delivery next year (perhaps 200 million additional doses...).

And then there are other vaccines that will be available in much larger volumes if they are approved.

A vaccine prepares the immune system for the virus. It does not completely prevent infection or exposure. The infection is just so inconsequential that it's unnoticeable.

That’s true, however it does reduce spread, even for people who would have been asymptomatic, since their bodies will start fighting it much sooner.

There are at least 2 new strains. One in SA and one in the uk. I’m not sure vaccinating will be enough even if you could make them fast enough

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